Holding A Pretty Wheel: Despite Struggles, Can Kyle Busch Find His Old Magic?

Any racecar driver will tell you that as the years march on, wins become more meaningful, less of something to take for granted and more to savor. That’s not just the added wisdom of age, but the realization of something else: one of those wins will be their last one. And they don’t know when it’s coming.

While age plays a factor in that, things like reaction time depreciate with age, it’s also true that longevity breeds a deep knowledge of tracks and of other drivers. There’s no magic age where drivers stop winning. Denny Hamlin won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday (March 15) at 45, an age where many NASCAR Cup Series drivers have chosen to hang up their helmets for their next chapters.

For Kyle Busch, though, the wins haven’t come. He hasn’t stepped into victory lane in the Cup Series since 2023, when he won three races and took his Richard Childress Racing team to the playoffs.

Busch has four wins in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series since his last Cup win, with the most recent coming at EchoPark Speedway just weeks ago. Yes, that’s a series with a lot of underfunded teams and less experienced drivers, and Busch has walked all over them in the past, but if he’s still winning, he still knows how to drive a race vehicle around a racetrack.

What, then, is at play here? Why isn’t a driver who once seemed like he could win at will winning at all?

Drivers, particularly ones of Busch’s caliber, don’t suddenly forget how to race. They don’t forget where the trouble spots are on tracks or where they have the best chance to make a pass. They know how to block and how to use the air to their advantage.

Ask Busch about any racetrack on the schedule, and it’s clear he knows their quirks and tough spots. He understands how to enter the corners and where it’s crucial to be letter-perfect. 

There’s no doubt that Busch isn’t in the best equipment of his career. Before RCR, he drove for Joe Gibbs Racing and before that, Hendrick Motorsports. RCR hasn’t been a championship-caliber team in years. It’s had a few good drivers in recent years, most notably Tyler Reddick, but it’s been some time since the organization attracted elite drivers. The last driver it had of Busch’s level was Kevin Harvick, and he left after the 2013 season.

RCR has had a smattering of wins since then, with Busch putting up three in 2023 and Reddick another three the year before that, but they’re the only drivers since Harvick won four in 2013 to put more than one on the board.

Austin Dillon has a win in each of the last two seasons, but he’s never won more than once in a season. In truth, its commitment to Dillon (understandable as he’s Childress’ grandson) has probably held the team back. He’s not an elite talent. He’s experienced enough to consistently run in the mid-pack.

Over time, that doesn’t help the team improve. If Dillon is at his peak in terms of what he can contribute, the team simply isn’t going to get the feedback they’d get from a consistent top-15 driver.

Which is what Busch should be. 

If he’s getting the maximum out of his cars every week, the cars aren’t capable of better. Is RCR spread too thin with technical alliances? Is Dillon, as the owner’s family, getting the best stuff, as it’s recently been alleged that Ty Gibbs does driving for his grandfather?

And if Busch isn’t able to squeeze more out of his cars than they have to give…well, how come?

Busch has been vocal about his dislike for the Next Gen car, and he’s struggled in it. Before that, he won in every car NASCAR put on the track, starting with his first win in 2005 in the fourth-generation Cup car. Despite his unbridled dislike for it, he kept winning in the fifth generation (Car of Tomorrow), too. Gen 6? No problem there; Busch won a pair of titles in those cars.

He has those few wins in the Next Gen, but they came early, when everyone was struggling with it. Since then, drivers have had time to figure it out, and Busch hasn’t kept up.

It’s happened before: drivers adapt to different car types. They learn the new car and keep winning…until they don’t. It happened to Richard Petty with the advent of the fourth-generation car. Petty won regularly before the third-generation car debuted in 1981. After that, he had a handful more wins, but the more the car evolved, the less frequent the great runs became. His last win came in 1984, though he’d spend eight more years trying to find the old magic before retiring after the 1992 season (the first season for the fourth-generation car).

Jimmie Johnson won the last title for the fourth-generation car in 2006, four in the Car of Tomorrow era car and a pair in the Gen 6, but watching him race the Gen 6, it’s clear he wasn’t as comfortable in those cars as their heavier, more powerful predecessors, and eventually, the wins stopped. Johnson has not raced the Next Gen car regularly, but he has commented on how different it is from its predecessors.

Busch compares well to Johnson; despite wildly different personalities, they’re the same level of elite driver. Johnson didn’t have equipment woes in his last couple of seasons. So, while RCR equipment could be the problem, it might not be. Likely, it’s not all of it.

Busch has another shot. A free agent at the end of the year, if he can find a championship-caliber ride, he has the opportunity to prove everyone who has said he’s near the end of his career wrong. As difficult as the last couple of seasons have been, Busch doesn’t look done.

The hard part will be finding that ride. Busch has mellowed somewhat over the last couple of years, whether that comes from fatherhood and bringing his own children along in racing or from the humbling experience of driving mid-tier equipment for the first time. That could help him, but he has burned some bridges.

Busch didn’t leave Hendrick on great terms, and his final year at JGR was strained as well, though whether that was JGR struggling to find sponsorship for him or not looking very hard with Gibbs waiting in the wings with Monster Energy backing is hard to say.

Not a lot of teams have open seats upcoming, let alone the elite ones. The Hendrick No. 48 could be available, but there are several youngsters waiting in the wings, and a Busch reunion seems unlikely unless enough water has passed beneath that particular bridge that the team would consider him. Most other teams with potential spots aren’t title contenders.

If Busch decides to step aside after this year, it wouldn’t be a shock. His son Brexton is beginning his racing career and Busch is very involved with that. Busch will be 41 when the season ends, perhaps a couple of years young for the rocking chair in comparison to his peers, but it’s not far-fetched. 

Except there’s still something to prove, and despite his struggles and even at the point in his career when the last win is inevitable, it’s hard to imagine that Busch doesn’t want to—or can’t—do just that.