Friday Faceoff: Did Shane van Gisbergen’s Poor Coronado Finish Cost Him a Chase Spot?

1) Should NASCAR return to Naval Base Coronado beyond this season?

Michael Bellifemini: I’d like to see Naval Base Coronado return since it showed some exciting racing throughout the weekend, but I know it’ll be difficult to schedule another race on a naval base. I would keep the date in June, with Amazon Prime Video covering it because it did a good job covering the event this year.

Andrew Stoddard: I lean toward making Coronado a one-off event for NASCAR special to the United States’ 250th birthday. The patriotic backdrop of the naval base for a full weekend featuring all three of NASCAR’s national touring series made for a nice way to mark this special anniversary of the country. However, the great finish of the NASCAR Cup Series race aside, the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series races were much messier, featuring multiple red flags and a manhole cover coming loose underneath Corey Day’s car. It is also likely that the novelty of this year’s event would wear off if repeated in 2027, leading to lower hype and ratings. It was an excellent weekend, and it’s great that NASCAR continues to try new things to mix up the schedule, but in this case, it shouldn’t push its luck.

Christopher Hansen: Yes. Coronado represented another historic chapter in NASCAR’s storied past. It showed the willingness of the sanctioning body to continue to push the boundaries in terms of the NASCAR schedule, taking the series to new venues over the past few seasons, including the Chicago street course, Bowman Gray Stadium and Autódromos Hermanos Rodríguez. Keeping in mind that Coronado is an active military base being used by the United States Navy, NASCAR hosting a mid-summer race similar to this year’s June 21 date would be the most ideal should the sport return.

Aaron Bearden: NASCAR’s Navy race was a smash hit, providing both a solid on-track product and a unique spectacle for everyone who tuned in on Prime. But I’d hesitate to say this event should go on for another season. Circumstances surrounding the race weekend were perfect this year. NASCAR needed a splashy new event to showcase itself on the national scale. The U.S. is celebrating its 250th anniversary, so the patriotic effort made total sense. The race was solid, so I can see why there’d be calls for a return. But this event being a likely one-off was part of what made it so special to begin with. It’s difficult to justify clogging up an active naval base yearly, and we’ve seen from other events like this in recent years that they tend to have diminishing returns. It’s better to let this live on as a wonderful memory than be tainted by a less stellar race in the future.

2) Did Shane van Gisbergen’s 38th-place finish at Coronado cost him a Chase spot?

Hansen: No. With this upcoming weekend’s race at Sonoma Raceway, where he’s the defending race winner, Shane van Gisbergen has the opportunity to make up for his 38th-place finish. Plus, with how much his performance on intermediate tracks has improved compared to his rookie season, van Gisbergen should have no trouble getting back inside the Chase picture in the next couple of races.

Bellifemini: No, it’s still too early to make that claim. If van Gisbergen wins Sonoma and dominates, he will build up a decent gap again over the cut line. He’s shown improvement on the ovals at times this year, and he could also pick up valuable points if he survives the plate races.

Bearden: No. It definitely hurt his odds, but van Gisbergen is improving on ovals and could still secure a healthy advantage on the cut line this weekend at Sonoma Raceway. The real key will be how the three-time Supercars champ handles himself at traditional ovals moving forward and whether he can avoid the inevitable chaos at both EchoPark Speedway and Daytona International Speedway, two drafting tracks that provide a great opportunity to benefit from others’ misfortune. With some consistency and a splash of luck, the Kiwi could squeak out just enough margin to sneak through. Don’t write him off just yet.

Stoddard: When the regular season ends at Daytona in late August, we will look back on Coronado as the race that cost van Gisbergen a spot in the Chase. Sonoma this weekend marks the final road course of 2026, so even if van Gisbergen wins or finishes top five in Wine Country, he will have to rely on his performance on ovals to clinch a Chase berth. While the New Zealander has shown noticeable improvement on ovals in 2026 compared to 2025, I hesitate to think that van Gisbergen will be consistent enough on the variety of ovals left in the regular season. In particular, short tracks continue to be a struggle for van Gisbergen, and there are three of them in the final nine races of the regular season: North Wilkesboro Speedway, Richmond Raceway and Iowa Speedway. It won’t be enough for him to hold off big names around the cut line, including former Cup champions Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski.

3) Will Carson Kvapil get his first career O’Reilly win this season?

Bearden: I’ll be a sourpuss and say no. Carson Kvapil is a solid prospect who showcased his abilities in the late model ranks, but we haven’t seen enough top-end speed from him to expect a win at this stage. He’s stacking more top fives this year, but Kvapil isn’t leading a significant number of laps, and his best results typically fall in the back half of the top five. Don’t get me wrong, the No. 1 team could nail the setup at the right time or benefit from a particularly chaotic race to snag a win along the way. Kvapil has the talent to deliver a win if things work out in his favor. But it’s not realistic to expect that of the Mooresville, N.C., native based on what he’s shown so far.

Bellifemini: Kvapil has been knocking on the door for some time now, so he’s bound to get to victory lane eventually. I don’t know where it’ll happen, but with his consistency and JR Motorsports’ equipment, he should be able to snag a checkered flag in 2026.

Stoddard: Yes. If you look at the remainder of his 2026 schedule, Kvapil will be the JR Motorsports No. 1 for the vast majority of the races as opposed to the DGM Racing No. 91 that he’s been piloting on select weekends to cobble together a full-time schedule. My gut is telling me that Iowa in August or the return to Bristol Motor Speedway in September will be the day for Kvapil to break through for his first win, as short tracks seem to be the young driver’s bread and butter.

Hansen: Yes. Kvapil has come so close to finally scoring his first win in the NOAPS, and he nearly scored it last weekend before ultimately settling for a fourth-place finish at Coronado. Bouncing back and forth between JRM and DGM hasn’t deterred Kvapil’s confidence as he continues searching for his first victory. The speed and consistency has been there throughout his time in the O’Reilly Series. It’s only a matter of time before Kvapil puts together a complete race from start to finish and is celebrating a victory.

4) Who is having the more impressive season in the lower series: Justin Allgaier in O’Reilly or Layne Riggs in Trucks?

Stoddard: There is no question that Justin Allgaier is having a stellar season in the O’Reilly Series with five wins, 14 top 10s and a 224-point lead through 18 races. That said, we have seen this level of performance from Allgaier before, most notably in his 2024 O’Reilly championship season. That is why in a close decision, I consider Layne Riggs’ season in the Craftsman Truck Series to be more impressive. In 13 races, Riggs has visited victory lane four times. In comparison, the rest of the full-time Truck field has two wins. Granted, Cup drivers coming down to compete in Trucks has a lot to do with that, but it’s nonetheless an impressive stat. Riggs is also one of just two full-time Truck drivers without a DNF (Gio Ruggiero is the other), and he has built up a 65-point lead on Kaden Honeycutt, who is piloting the No. 11 Toyota that dominated the Truck Series in 2025. Right now, even with the impending Chase reset, the Truck Series is shaping up to be Riggs’ championship to lose.

Hansen: Allgaier in O’Reilly. At 40 years old, Allgaier has set the series on fire this season, winning five races and amassing a 224-point advantage ahead of the current second-place driver in points, Jesse Love. Allgaier has by far been the class of the field most weekends, consistently running up front and contending for wins week in and week out. With the year he’s had so far, Allgaier has a very strong chance to bring home his second title at season’s end.

Bearden: It has to be Allgaier, right? The veteran has only one less win (five) than the two drivers closest to him in the standings have managed in top fives (six). At the current rate, he could take six races off and still hold onto the regular-season points lead. Riggs is having a great year, but you could argue he hasn’t even been the best driver earning Truck points. Corey Heim has gone 3-for-5 and averaged 11 more points per race than Riggs in his select Truck starts. Luckily for Riggs (and the rest of the field), he isn’t full time this season.

Bellifemini: Allgaier for sure since he’s already locked up a Chase spot. I know O’Reilly has had more races than the Trucks. but Allgaier has led the standings for basically the whole season. Meanwhile, Riggs just recently built his gap on Honeycutt and the rest of the field. Riggs has had a solid run as of late, but I have to go with the O’Reilly veteran here.