Who’s ready for March Madness, NASCAR style?
The NASCAR Cup Series In-Season Challenge returns this week for its second season and pits 32 drivers in a head-to-head, single-elimination tournament format over the next five races, with one driver taking home the $1 million prize at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Last season, Ty Gibbs emerged as the inaugural winner when he defeated Ty Dillon in the championship round.
Following the opening race in last year’s challenge at EchoPark Speedway, there were zero perfect brackets left standing.
This was largely due to several highly seeded drivers being involved in crashes, which paved the way for the lower-seeded drivers to advance in the Challenge. With EchoPark sliding back to the third race, Sonoma Raceway takes place as the host track, kicking off the Round of 32.
Road courses are just as wild and unpredictable as a superspeedway race, but here are some thoughts on who might move on based on the information available to us.
(1) Tyler Reddick vs. (32) Alex Bowman
Tyler Reddick, the current points and race wins leader with five, matches up with Alex Bowman, who’s had a season to forget after sitting out four races early in the season battling vertigo symptoms.
With a victory at Circuit of the Americas along with a fifth-place finish at Watkins Glen International, Reddick should have no troubles moving on to the second round.
Advancing: Tyler Reddick
(2) Denny Hamlin vs. (31) Ty Dillon
After finding out Dillon is matched up with him once again for the In-Season Challenge’s first race, Denny Hamlin, laughing, said Dillon is “my kryptonite” after Dillon upset him in last year’s opening race. Hamlin will easily advance this time around, thanks in part to the dominant stretch of races he’s been on.
Advancing: Denny Hamlin
(3) Ryan Blaney vs. (30) Josh Berry
Ryan Blaney, who’s been by far the best Ford driver most of the season, is favored over Josh Berry, whose best road-course finish this season is 26th at COTA. Despite a 24th-place average finish at Sonoma, Blaney does have five top 10s there, with a best finish of third in 2019.
Advancing: Ryan Blaney
(4) Chase Elliott vs. (29) Noah Gragson
The king of the road prior to Shane van Gisbergen entering the Cup Series, Chase Elliott has never visited victory lane at Sonoma during his Cup career. In nine prior appearances, a second-place finish to teammate Kyle Larson in 2021 marked his personal best.
Noah Gragson, on the other hand, in two Cup starts hasn’t finished better than 26th.
Advancing: Chase Elliott
(5) Ty Gibbs vs. (28) Austin Dillon
One of the most consistent drivers in recent seasons on road courses, Gibbs has one top 10 in three Sonoma appearances. In 11 Sonoma starts, Austin Dillon has yet to finish in the top 10, with a best finish of 11th in 2022.
With how well he’s performed in the Next Gen era on road/street courses, Gibbs should easily advance past the first round.
Advancing: Ty Gibbs
(6) Kyle Larson vs. (27) Riley Herbst
A two-time Sonoma race winner in 2021 and 2024, Larson had a subpar result in the most recent Sonoma race, finishing 35th while Riley Herbst was 25th in his only Sonoma start. At Naval Base Coronado, both Larson and Herbst had strong finishes as both wound up inside the top 10.
In a season where he’s been shut out of victory lane, perhaps this weekend will see Larson return to victory lane, along with an advancement to the challenge’s second round.
Advancing: Kyle Larson
(7) Chris Buescher vs. (26) John Hunter Nemechek
One of the more quiet yet consistent road-course drivers during the Next Gen era has been Chris Buescher. His only road course triumph came at Watkins Glen a couple of seasons ago when he outdueled van Gisbergen in a thrilling finish. In the Next Gen era, Buescher paces the Cup Series with an 8.8 average finish.
Nemechek has shown flashes of consistency, scoring a sixth place finish at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez a season ago, along with a 10th-place finish at Watkins Glen earlier in the season.
Buescher will advance based on his ability to consistently run up front on road courses.
Advancing: Chris Buescher
(8) Daniel Suarez vs. (25) Todd Gilliland
Daniel Suarez has enjoyed a successful first part of the 2026 season since joining Spire Motorsports in the offseason. His emotional win in the Coca-Cola 600 has been the highlight of his season to this point.
Todd Gilliland, in his fourth season with Front Row Motorsports, has had a disappointing season with one top-10 finish, along with a 21st-place average finish.
With Suarez’s maiden Cup win coming at Sonoma in ‘22, look for him to have no trouble advancing to the second round.
Advancing: Daniel Suarez
(9) Carson Hocevar vs. (24) Zane Smith
A pair of young, talented drivers makes this matchup a good one. Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith, who both moved from the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series to the Cup Series, have turned heads in the early stages of the season.
Hocevar scored a popular win at Talladega Superspeedway, while Smith has put together solid races in recent weeks for the No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford.
For this matchup, I’m giving Hocevar the edge over Smith. However, with the speed he’s shown lately, Smith will give Hocevar a spirited battle to advance.
Advancing: Carson Hocevar
(10) Christopher Bell vs. (23) Ross Chastain
The winner of this matchup will be determined by whether Christopher Bell is able to run the full race after having Brent Crews fill in at Coronado due to injury.
Ross Chastain’s only road-course victory came more than four years ago at COTA, while Bell had scored a pair of wins at both the Daytona International Speedway road course and COTA.
Both drivers are still searching for their first wins of the season, with Bell 10th in points and Chastain 23rd. If he’s able to complete all 110 laps on Sunday while remaining competitive, Bell gets the nod over Chastain.
Advancing: Christopher Bell
(11) William Byron vs. (22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr
A battle between manufacturer teammates sees William Byron as the overwhelming favorite with -5000 odds to defeat Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in their matchup, according to DraftKings.
Road courses haven’t been either driver’s strength recently, with both drivers finishing outside the top 30 at Coronado last weekend.
Because of his two previous road course wins, Byron will defeat Stenhouse and advance to the second round.
Advancing: William Byron
(12) Chase Briscoe vs. (21) AJ Allmendinger
If you want a good battle, look no further than Chase Briscoe and AJ Allmendinger. DraftKings odds have Briscoe at -120, with Allmendinger at -110.
Allmendinger is no stranger to road-course success and scored his first career Cup win at Watkins Glen in 2014.
Briscoe’s one breakout performance came last year at Sonoma, finishing second to none other than van Gisbergen. This battle will be another exciting one to follow, with Briscoe outdueling Allmendinger.
Advancing: Chase Briscoe
(13) Bubba Wallace vs. (20) Michael McDowell
This is one of the more interesting matchups of the Round of 32, as both Bubba Wallace and Michael McDowell have had their fair share of solid performances this season on road courses.
Wallace overcame a two-lap penalty last weekend to finish runner-up to race winner Corey Heim.
McDowell also has a second-place finish to his credit, finishing behind van Gisbergen at Watkins Glen earlier in the season.
Sonoma has been a struggle for Wallace, with no top-10 finishes in seven starts. On the other hand, McDowell has finished in the top 10 in every Sonoma race with the Next Gen, giving him the edge over Wallace.
Advancing: Michael McDowell
(14) Shane van Gisbergen vs. (19) Ryan Preece
On paper, this matchup is as one-sided as they come, with road-course aficionado van Gisbergen entering as the heavily favored driver over Ryan Preece.
After winning five road courses last year, van Gisbergen looked human after a disappointing 38th-place finish due to a crash at Coronado.
Barring an accident or mechanical issue, van Gisbergen, the defending Sonoma race winner, will have no trouble winning his matchup with Preece, though.
Advancing: Shane van Gisbergen
(15) Erik Jones vs. (18) Joey Logano
Two drivers that have both had their ups and downs this season, both Erik Jones and Joey Logano have shown signs of improvement lately. Jones scored back-to-back top 10s at Michigan International Speedway and Pocono Raceway to firmly establish himself inside the current Chase picture. Logano, who’s had a frustrating 2026, currently sits 18th in points and outside the Chase cut line.
Despite that, Logano gets the slight edge on Jones thanks to finishing higher of the two in three previous Sonoma starts.
Advancing: Joey Logano
(16) Austin Cindric vs. (17) Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski, the former driver of the Team Penske No. 2, matches up with Austin Cindric, the current driver. In this bracket, Cindric has finished higher than Keselowski 16 times on road courses. On the flip side, Keselowski has finished higher than Cindric at Sonoma three times.
Road courses have been a struggle for the owner/driver at RFK Racing, highlighted by a 34th-place finish at Coronado one week ago, giving Cindric a better chance at advancing.
Advancing: Austin Cindric
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