Daily NASCAR DFS Picks: Kansas

“I close my eyes, only for a moment then the moment’s gone. All my dreams, pass before my eyes with curiosity…dust in the wind” – “Dust in the Wind” by Kansas

Though the Chase for the NASCAR Cup Series championship no longer has an elimination format, a lot of big names have their title hopes on life support.

Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott and William Byron desperately need something big to happen to have a shot at getting back on track, and Kansas Speedway has been good to all three over the years. Heck, Elliott won a thriller here just one year ago. If I were you guys, I would absolutely have one of those guys on your squad.

Who I would not have is last week’s winner Joey Logano, surprisingly enough. Sure, he’s on the pole and clean air is your friend, but Logano’s Achilles heel has been intermediates this year. The No. 22 team has not scored a single stage point on this track type all season. Just too much to lose by picking him this week.

Fantasy Forecast

Denny Hamlin $10,500

If Hamlin is going to win his first championship, he’s going to have to take away the momentum that Logano and Kyle Larson have picked up.

I think he’s going to do just that.

After all, he dominated this race a year ago and if not for lost power steering, he likely would’ve won it. Toyota has also been very successful on intermediate circuits this season. I think DH is the man to beat.

Carson Hocevar $8,300

Lost in the shuffle of the extracurricular activities between Hocevar and Ryan Blaney post-race last week was just how good of a run the former had.

In fact, I think it’s a sign that momentum is moving back toward the direction of the sport’s most polarizing figure.

It’s going to take a level of performance that I don’t think this team is capable of to win tomorrow, but I could see Hocevar using the draft to his advantage and challenging for a top three to five finish.

Bubba Wallace $9,200

As sick as the finish of last season’s race here at Kansas probably made Hamlin, it was that much worse for Wallace.

To be shoved up the track by your boss and then promptly passed by a rival in a Chevrolet probably stung pretty bad. This is a new season though, and he’s a former winner of the fall race at Kansas, and I think he’s my sleeper pick for this race.

Almost all of the 23XI cars have won this season, multiple times, including Corey Heim‘s part time ride, and I think this No. 23 team is due for a big run in the heartland.

Josh Berry $7,100

I’m going to keep riding the Berry train until the wheels fall off.

After a super strong end to his season, I’m starting to get the feeling that Berry is going to contend for a win here soon, and this track is pretty close in layout to the place where he got his first Cup Series win; Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

I don’t think this is the one that he’s going to get, but I like the price for what has been a guaranteed top-10 finish for the last few weeks.

Chase Elliott $9,000

I don’t have the faith in the old No. 9 Chevrolet the way I used to.

Week after week after week, I jump on DraftKings and see him available, and I think maybe this is the week they figure it out.

This is my final straw folks. Elliott won this race in dramatic fashion last season, and he’s been pretty darn good on intermediates this season for the most part. I also know that Elliott and his team respond pretty well to pressure and a win could save their chances to win this title. It’s win or bust. Hopefully it’s not bust.

Zane Smith $5,900

“Zane Smith on his side!”

That’s how Smith finished this race at Kansas last season, with a famous play-by-play call from Leigh Diffey.

I have no basis for making this pick other than it can’t get much worse for him after a brutal crash at World Wide Technology Raceway and a pretty horrible run at Bristol Motor Speedway.

He’s also cheap and he’s the highest rated driver on the list.

Top Bets of the Week

Hamlin +440 to win

Like I said in the forecast, Hamlin needs this win to keep up in the Chase. I have no doubt he’s going to have to go through Larson to do it, and he’s also a good bet. But based on last year’s dominance, I got to look his way, and you should too.

Dark Horse of the Week: Wallace +1500

Wallace has had a super solid season with no wins, and it reminds me a lot of the last time he won here back in 2022. That season, he’d been close a few times but always seemed to come up just short. I think he has an even better shot at this race tomorrow and wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls it off for a huge payday for his believers.