Daily NASCAR DFS Picks: Watkins Glen

”I’m not locked in here with you. You’re locked in here with me!” – Rorschach, Watchmen

As this NASCAR Cup Series season progresses, it’s getting harder and harder to predict winners. Take last week at Texas Motor Speedway for example.

I didn’t see a Chase Elliott win coming, or that Kyle Larson would be a non-factor. That is for sure not the case at Watkins Glen International. Shane van Gisbergen is obviously number one and one “A” on the roster.

Who should join him? Well, that’s actually pretty interesting. But first, let’s take a look at how much Texas cost me. It was actually my worst week so far this season.

Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: Texas

Lick Your Wounds	Right On the Money
Christopher Bell: -18 points scored	Carson Hocevar: 51 points scored
Kyle Larson: -16 points scored
Todd Gilliland: 9 point scored

Fantasy Forecast

Shane Van Gisbergen $13,500

By every metric in this Next Gen era, SVG is the leader. Every heat chart, every average speed statistic, all of it.

He is particularly inevitable at this road course. I fear that Trackhouse Racing’s large and glaring problems this season could affect him, but the chances of that are low.

Even if somehow SVG gets beat on strategy or something, he’s definitely good to finish in the top three or four. He’s expensive, but you can’t pass this up.

Ryan Blaney $8,200

I’m making this pick solely on his Circuit of the Americas performance. Ryan Blaney had the second-best car all day at that race earlier this year and his performance in qualifying signifies he’s a player at these racetracks now.

What I worry about most is the fact that he was outdriven at COTA by Tyler Reddick and SVG for most of that day. While Blaney has figured it out, he’s still miles away from those guys.

If he can have a stellar day with his racecraft, I predict a top five for Blaney.

Michael McDowell $8,000

Michael McDowell was not even on my radar before qualifying. But, you can’t really argue with an outside pole position.

But, with the recent uptick in performance by Daniel Suarez and Carson Hocevar, I should have predicted this would be a place McDowell would shine. After all, he cut his teeth on places like this coming up into NASCAR’s top division.

I don’t think he’s a serious candidate to supplant SVG Sunday. McDowell is a serious threat for a top five, though.

Austin Cindric $7,200

Austin Cindric was also someone who I didn’t see coming, but he put his No. 2 Ford in third on the grid for this race.

I’ve been waiting for a big run for him on a road course since Road America in 2021 and he’s got a pretty decent car based on practice speed as well. It’s surprising to me that he’s not been able to replicate the dominance on this track type car that he did in his NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series days.

Perhaps this week he’s able to put together a solid run and prove me right after thinking he was somebody to bank on with road courses all those years ago. I like Cindric for a top 10.

Bubba Wallace $6,500

Bubba Wallace has really started to come into his own as a road course racer as of late.

Back at COTA, he drove all the way from 24th to finish 11th, which is impressive enough at that place. Moreover, consider this: he’s not finished worse than 15th on any road course since last season’s event at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL. He also started deep in the field and finished eighth at this track last year.

Wallace isn’t a top contender for the win in this race, but a top 10 could be in the cards for sure.

John Hunter Nemechek $6,000

Lost in the fact that John Hunter Nemechek had a dust-up with Kyle Busch last week at Texas was the fact that JHN was having a pretty good run up to that point.

I also don’t really know what to make of him as far as this race is concerned. Overall, in practice, he was 21st, but was really good on the short runs.

This race can get wacky and Legacy Motor Club is likely just racing for wins at this point in the season. A proper gamble on a caution and a short run to the checkers would mean an ideal situation for the No. 42 team should it happen.

Top Bets of the Week

Favorite: Shane Van Gisbergen +130

Look, van Gisbergen is not the sexy pick here anymore, simply because it’s a given he’s going to be hard to beat on this track type. But I like easy money and after last week’s debacle with Larson, I’m feeling safe money again. I’ll be surprised if he fails to lead all the laps, to be honest.

Dark Horse: Austin Cindric +1400

I really like Cindric in this race. He’s been fast and steady, and if something happens to SVG, Cindric will be right there to pounce. McDowell is also a good choice, but I’m not ready to trust him like that. If you’re looking to make things interesting, Cindric’s your man.