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Don’t Get Too Hyped for Hailie Deegan’s Next Chapter

Hailie Deegan had been largely quiet the last few months after leaving AM Racing.

Until this week, when she announced a move to single seaters.

See also
The Pit Straight: Assessing the Futures of Hailie Deegan, Toyota & Haas Factory Team

But first, it would be wise to take a look at the story up to this point.

The Californian, who turned 23 years old in July, comes from an off-road racing background. The daughter of Brian Deegan was successful; after all, she was a former class winner in the old Lucas Oil Off-Road Racing Series.

But stock cars were a goal relatively early on. In 2018, she entered what was then the K&N Pro Series West after a couple of years in late models and legend cars. She finished fifth in points, but the most memorable moment of her formative year was her lone win of the season.

The next year, Deegan finished third in West points and backed up her win the year before with two more wins. The most popular of these came in a race in Colorado, where she dumped her teammate for the win.

I remember the hype train online at the time was really starting to heat up. People were literally comparing her to Dale Earnhardt. If people think Connor Zilisch’s hype prior to his NASCAR Xfinity Series win last month was a bit much, Deegan’s was bigger.

And why wouldn’t it be? It generally seemed like NASCAR was about to get their first female superstar.

That’s NASCAR’s lead business reporter talking about a driver, who at that point had made just six starts in the ARCA Menards Series and nothing above that level, as a key to the next TV deal. Deegan Mania was insane.

Then 2020 happened. She finished third in ARCA points, which wasn’t great considering only four drivers started every race that season. No wins, but know what? That’s okay. Winning is overrated. The top winner in that series that season was some guy called “Ty Gibbs“. No idea what he’s doing now.

Screw ARCA. Clearly, the best course of action for Deegan was to follow the schedule and move up to the Craftsman Truck Series. They’d give her the real experience she needs to go forward in NASCAR.

In 68 Truck starts from 2021 to 2023, Deegan finished in the top 10 only five times. She did beat her teammate Tanner Gray in points in 2021, but then lost to him in 2022 before finishing 19th in points in 2023 while her teammate Ben Rhodes won the championship.

And it’s not like she didn’t have any support. Mike Hillman Jr. won a championship as crew chief for Todd Bodine in 2010. He worked with Deegan for 39 races and had just two top 10 finishes. Jerry Baxter had some Cup success with Bubba Wallace and Erik Jones in 2020 and 2021, then didn’t do much in six races with Deegan the following year.

Rich Lushes won a championship with Rhodes in 2021. He moved to Deegan’s pit box in 2023, didn’t produce much, then moved back to Rhodes during the playoffs and called him to another championship.

She had the people around her and the equipment at both ThorSport Racing and the then-named David Gilliland Racing. It just didn’t seem to work out for her there.

In 2024, after three years toiling in Trucks, she finally moved up to NXS. It was a struggle. Unlike Trucks, Deegan raced for an outfit that was not winning races or championships.

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The hype this time was more about how the Truck Series maybe wasn’t the best way to learn NASCAR after all. And maybe that is the case, but it just never clicked for her in this series.

None of this is to attack or smear Deegan. But it’s also really, really hard to fully believe that it was entirely AM Racing’s fault when it comes to her being replaced in the car.

And it’s why it’s fair to be bullish on this move. I think a lot of people would like to see Deegan do well. At the same time, however, history is not at her advantage.

That’s Jimmie Johnson, who had finished 18th in Cup points the year prior to this and is the most accomplished NASCAR driver of the 21st century and also comes from an off-road background … failing to make a turn at St. Petersburg.

There’s nothing wrong with trying to race single-seaters. Hell, if you have the money for it, it’s how those feeder series make their dough. But it’s really hard to imagine this move will vault Deegan into IndyCar.

And look, I want Deegan to do well; I want her to prove me wrong. I even suggested she try out Formula 1 Academy back in the spring.

But trying that out and attempting a full-blown career out of it? Big difference. And again, if she is going into this with no expectations, that’s fine. If she is, that’s also fine.

But let’s not get too wild ourselves yet again when it comes to expectations and hype.

About the author

Michael has watched NASCAR for 20 years and regularly covered the sport from 2013-2021, and also formerly covered the SRX series from 2021-2023. He now covers the FIA Formula 1 World Championship, the NASCAR Xfinity Series, and road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series.

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Jeremy

I would like to see her succeed, but it is well documented that switching from open wheel to stock cars and vice-versa is a tough task with very few drivers being successful in both disciplines.

That said, I think it’s also clear her opportunities in NA$CAR are dwindling, so she has to pivot if she wants to keep racing. If Indy doesn’t work out, I’d not be surprised to see her try IMSA.

Last edited 22 days ago by Jeremy
JT

I’m not sure that her handlers sending Deegan into IndyCar’s B-league is such a smart move. She has no real open wheel racing experience, unlike say, Danica Patrick, who raced Carts and Formula Ford in Europe for years before she entered the IndyCar pipeline.

IMHO it would have been better if she went full-time in IMSA where she actually showed promise in the handful of races she ran in that series. But driving in IMSA just isn’t big enough to help sustain Team Deegan’s social media empire.

As for her leaving NASCAR: I guess her driver development contract with Ford was up this year and Ford chose not to renew. That was the money paying her driving salary and AM Racing didn’t have the cash to cover her for the remainder of the season, thus the parting of the ways at mid-season. And yes, her results on the track were poor.

Last edited 22 days ago by JT