1. In Defense of Denny Hamlin
We’re not talking about Denny Hamlin the owner here, though we’ll get to him shortly.
The 20/20 hindsight crowd is out in full force for Hamlin the driver, calling the strategy used by his No. 11 team at Atlanta “dismal,” along with other unkind adjectives.
In case you missed it, Hamlin was already slow in qualifying, then intentionally didn’t push things for most of the race. He suggested during his post-race comments that since Atlanta races more like a superspeedway now, his drafting sense was tingling and he wanted to avoid any big wrecks.
Alas, the race played out without The Big One, a la Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, and Hamlin instead got caught up in a more conventional incident, which is a risk when you purposefully run around cars you generally outclass.
Though this tactic would have been unthinkable at Atlanta prior to its 2021 repave and reconfiguration, it’s not like Hamlin never tried this before. It worked out just fine for him (and others) at Talladega in 2016, for sure.
And so to flip Marc Antony’s famous speech from Julius Caesar around, we come not to bury Denny, but to praise him. He’s famously never won a NASCAR Cup Series championship despite his status as a top star and perennial contender. Hamlin has banged his head on this particular door time and time again without finding a way to open it.
Why wouldn’t he, of all drivers, just say “screw it” and go with a hunch? Sure it could backfire, as he’s just two points above the first-round playoff cut line and has no real margin for error over the next two races.
But doing things the conventional way hasn’t worked for him either, so it’s hard to criticize him too much for trying this. One thing’s for sure: he’s definitely not going to be moping around and regretful just because his Atlanta gambit didn’t go the way he hoped.
2. Hamlin, MJ Are Calling NASCAR’s Bluff
As it turns out, Hamlin was also a major figure in the big off-track NASCAR story of the past few days, when 23XI Racing announced that it was ignoring NASCAR’s Friday night deadline to sign the charter deal. Except for one more holdout, Front Row Motorsports, every other team agreed to the proposal dictating the terms of the charter system for the next seven Cup Series seasons (2025-2031).
Hamlin was somewhat quiet on the matter over the race weekend, but the statement released by the team he co-owns with Michael Jordan noted its objection to “not have an opportunity to fairly bargain” for a new deal. Without being privy to any of the actual negotiations, it’s impossible to assess the merit of this stance, but from the outside looking in, it’s not hard to imagine that NASCAR tried to strongarm the race teams into accepting a less-than-ideal agreement with a mixture of fear and brinksmanship.
Any number of observers has already stated one obvious fact: there’s no viable alternative to NASCAR for the race teams. Forming their own series that could even remotely hope to compete would take years, not months, and stock car racing in general isn’t operating from a position of peak strength in terms of TV ratings, attendance or sponsorship dollars.
That alone might be enough for 23XI and Front Row to eventually acquiesce. If not, NASCAR could hypothetically take their charters away.
The most interesting player in all of this, though, is Jordan. He’s not just one of the most famous athletes ever, he’s one of the few whose status has transcended his sport and his time as a top star. He’s on a very short list of the worst possible people for NASCAR to go toe-to-toe with in the court of public opinion.
However complicated this issue is behind the scenes, it’s not hard to see the overly simplified headlines and social media posts now: “NASCAR Bans Michael Jordan’s Race Team.”
Surely things won’t ever get to that point, because that would require a big gulp on NASCAR’s part to swallow.
3. Kyle Larson’s Current Status Proves NASCAR Regular Season Isn’t Meaningless
You know one thing that NASCAR’s playoff system doesn’t have that many other sports do? Byes. Yet if a driver performs well enough in the regular season, it almost works out that way.
It’s a relevant thought because of what happened to Kyle Larson at Atlanta. As the laps were winding down in stage 1, Larson got loose and smashed into the outside wall, then collected fellow playoff participant Chase Briscoe on the way back down the track.
Briscoe is now in big trouble. He’s dead last in points in the field of 16, 21 markers out of the 12th spot to advance to the next round and with three other drivers in between him and safety.
In contrast, Larson is more or less fine. He’s only 15 points above the cut line, but he has Hamlin and Ty Gibbs as a buffer. It would take another similar disaster in the next two races to truly jeopardize his chances of moving on.
That’s all due to Larson starting the playoffs as the top seed, racking up the most playoff points during the regular season. Consistency and success over 26 weeks got him there.
You know, the very things that many NASCAR fans complain about come playoff time. The final determination of the champion may be too much of a crapshoot for the liking of many, but the early rounds of the playoffs definitely aren’t — they fairly reward regular season excellence.
4. How Big an Accomplishment Would a Ryan Blaney Repeat Be?
It’s about two months too early to start forecasting with any precision who will end up the Cup Series champion, with a lot of potential twists and turns in the postseason saga to come. Despite that, it’s hard not to look and see Ryan Blaney sitting second in the playoff standings, behind only teammate and Atlanta race winner Joey Logano.
Even two Larson-esque calamities probably wouldn’t keep Blaney from advancing to the Round of 12, and if he makes it through, he’s got enough playoff points to put him in good shape to at least go one round further.
Blaney’s team also has last year’s experience to fall back on as it navigates the playoffs. It’s hard not to imagine he’ll be in the Championship 4 with a shot to defend his 2024 crown.
The last time the Cup Series had a repeat champ was when Jimmie Johnson finished off his run of five straight in 2010. It’s never happened in the playoff era.
Add in the fact that Ford hasn’t exactly dominated the proceedings from the start of the 2024 season to present and a Blaney repeat would be among the most impressive accomplishments in recent NASCAR history. It’s going to be fun to watch and see if he’s able to put himself in a position for it.
5. It Would Be Cool if Rookie of the Year Mattered Again
When I was first getting into NASCAR in the late 1990s, the Cup Series Rookie of the Year trophy went to an impressive list of future champions for several years straight:
- 1999: Tony Stewart
- 2000: Matt Kenseth
- 2001: Kevin Harvick
The next few years after that included Ryan Newman, Kyle Busch and Hamlin taking the honors. But for the last 15 years or so, it’s been a truly mixed bag — for every Larson or Chase Elliott, there’s a Kevin Conway, Andy Lally (who won in 2011 as the only eligible rookie) or Brett Moffitt.
It’s too early to tell if the likes of Briscoe, Austin Cindric or Ty Gibbs, the three most recent winners, can change that. As a fun thought experiment, see if you can name the leader in this year’s ROY race without looking it up.
(Answer: it’s Carson Hocevar.)
One thing that might help is if rookies actually won Cup Series races. In the glory days of Rookie of the Year between 1999 and 2007, the winners combined to take 12 checkered flags. Since then, just three: one each by Logano, Cole Custer and Cindric.
Happily, help might be riding to the rescue in the form of Shane van Gisbergen. The Kiwi electrified fans by winning the Chicago Street Race in his first-ever Cup Series race last year, and will almost certainly be deemed by NASCAR to be a ROY contender in 2025 when he’ll be running Cup full-time.
You may have heard he’s pretty good at road courses, so he’ll have a handful of chances to nab a victory or two. Maybe it’s unfair to hope he makes Rookie of the Year status mean something again all by himself, but there’s no denying it would be pretty sweet if he does.
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Giving a driver an edge in the “playoffs” is like the NFL giving a team a seven point lead to start every real playoff game. Isn’t there supposed to be a clean slate for every team in the playoffs so that anything can happen without the results being manipulated?
It’s similar to having a bye week or home field advantage.
Home field advantage works for stick and ball GAMES but not in the SPORT of auto racing like NA$CAR even though NA$CAR took the “racing” out of the equation.
Logano can finish dead last the next two races and nothing changes. He stays in the playoffs.
” calls Nascar’s bluff” what bluff would that be !! This is Nascar’s game, take your car and go home if you don’t like it.
Its shameful that team owners can’t align themselves for the betterment of all. The nonsense of having Nascar competing against the race teams for sponsor dollars is forcing the teams hand. There is a huge difference between the haves and have nots for sponsor dollars (ref Forbes article). On a per car basis the best teams gain 29M in sponsor dollars and the lowest gain 10M. And there is a correlation between best sponsored and highest finishing. This gets you into a revenue sharing model that happens in other sports. Let the sport generate the profit and divide it equally.
Its also impossible to evaluate (or take sides) with anyone on the charter issue because the document has never been made public.
I also find it interesting that if 23XI has its charters taken, then intend to run…and win…and get paid poorly. Using the NBA and their collective bargaining agreement experience, this will end up in court for certain and past judgements favor the plaintiffs. Nascar has given the teams a pay raise, but nothing more and actually want to be able to own charters themselves. This seems just as wrong here as it does in IndyCar.
Eventually people move a way from a garbage dump if it smells bad. I’m afraid that is going to happen with both Nascar and IndyCar.
And yet it’s been that way for 50+ years and they’re still around.