It’s Now or Never for Denny Hamlin

“20 years of trying, 20 years of frustration.”

Denny Hamlin has been racing full time in the NASCAR Cup Series since 2006. While infamously without a championship, he has finished in the top five of the final standings an astounding 10 times. That impressive resume includes runner-up finishes in 2010 and again in 2025.

After a heartbreaking finale last year, and an offseason from hell by any standard, is 2026 the year the bridesmaid finally becomes the bride?

The next three races will play a huge role in determining the outcome.

The 45-year-old veteran’s all-important trio of races kicks off this weekend at Kansas Speedway. After that, the series goes to Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Hamlin has been objectively great at 1.5 mile intermediate tracks this season. Here are the results from the five races this season at this type of track.

Track	Started	Finished	Laps Led	Points Earned
Las Vegas	2nd	1st	134	70
Kansas	2nd	4th	131	52
Fort Worth	4th	2nd	21	43
Charlotte	11th	3rd	75	60
Chicago	1st	3rd	30	45
Average	4th	3rd	78.2	54

These numbers are elite any way you look at them. But running well in the early and middle stages of the season is nothing new to Hamlin. Despite this fact, he’s often had a post-season success level similar to Aaron Rodgers. Except, Rodgers did get one Super Bowl ring.

After this three-week stretch, the series goes to Phoenix Raceway, and although Hamlin had the dominant car last fall, Phoenix is frequently a Penske playground. Then it’s off to Talladega Superspeedway, where anything can happen, and Hamlin has just one top ten finish there in the last five races. Next, it’s Martinsville Speedway, a track Hamlin is usually strong at, and he led 292 laps and finished second at The Paperclip in the spring. Finally, the finale at Homestead-Miami speedway.

Hamlin doesn’t have the luxury of just holding serve in each of the next three races if he wants to secure that elusive Championship. He needs to be dominant. I’d argue he needs to win at least one of them, probably two, and maybe even all three.

If you think that’s a reach, take a look at the last 20 years of trying.

The Chesterfield, Va., native will be back for another full-time season in 2027, but as this year’s No. 1 seed, you have to think this is his last, best shot to make it happen.

Hamlin has always appeared to be in pretty good physical shape, despite battling through various injuries during his career. Physical shape aside, Father Time is knocking. Hamlin has drawn numerous comparisons to NASCAR Hall of Famer Mark Martin, who also came painfully close to several championships. One of those comparisons has been his ability to run well deep into his forties. Alas, Father Time continues to knock, and by announcing next season as what will likely be his final full-time effort, the clock is ticking.

During a post-race interview at Worldwide Technology Raceway two weekends ago in which he finished ninth without leading any laps, Hamlin looked… like a worn out 45-year-old.

The unusually frail look can easily be attributed to the hot temperatures that day in Madison, Ill., and the sheer volume of water weight lost during the race. But it also serves as a reminder that he doesn’t have many more shots at this.

Hamlin’s first Cup Series top 10 was at Charlotte on Oct. 15, year of our Lord 2005. YouTube was just launched that year, and mortgage lenders were still originating “NINJA” loans.

Some other names that ran that race? Kurt Busch, Kyle Buisch, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Ricky Rudd, Jeremy Mayfield, Rusty Wallace, Tony Stewart, Dale Jarrett, Ken Schrader, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Robby Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Kyle Petty, Martin, Michael Waltrip, Kevin Harvick and Sterling Marlin. Hamlin is the last full-time driver from a bygone era.

Winning a Championship, or falling short of winning one, won’t change the body of work he’s put in, and he should be proud of all he’s accomplished regardless. But everyone knows that having such a successful career with no championships always puts an asterisk on a legacy.

Some would say Hamlin deserved to win the title last year, that he fell victim to the prior playoff format. That was addressed in the off-season. He’s run up front all year, coming back from trailing Tyler Reddick by over 100 points early in the season to take the lead and watch it grow.

In the three Chase races so far, Hamlin has been good, but not great. No top fives and an average finish of 12th. The narrative has become, “wait ‘til we get to the intermediates.”

Well, we’re here.

When driver No. 11 was racking up top fives on these tracks earlier in the year, neither Penske nor Hendrick Motorsports were running as well as they have been lately. Now, the bar has been raised. Can Hamlin grab another gear too?

As the points standings sit today, there are probably seven drivers who can realistically win the title. From Kyle Larson, who is one point ahead of Hamlin, to Reddick, who is 61 points behind. Between them are the red-hot Joey Logano (-16), Christopher Bell (-17), Ty Gibbs (-42) and Ryan Blaney (-52).

Among that group are the defending champion (Larson) and two of Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammates (Bell and Gibbs). He is going to have to beat the best, something that has repeatedly eluded him when the dust settled on each season. He’ll also need to be some younger, fresher teammates who have access to all the same information he does.

Hamlin’s execution will have to be perfect. No speeding on pit road; good pit stops. His equipment will need to hold up. He’ll need to unload with speed, avoid mistakes, and capitalize on restarts. He’ll need to be flawless among everything he can control, to drive like his legacy depends on it and get a little luck to boot.

If James Dennis Alan Hamlin is going to pull it off in his penultimate full-time season, he must build up a big points lead during this critical three-week stretch.