Stat Sheet: Toyota’s Regular Season Momentum Carries Into The Chase

Christopher Bell finally got the monkey off his back and won a NASCAR Cup Series race in 2026, passing Kyle Larson with 12 laps to go to win the Southern 500 on Sunday (Sept. 6).

The seven runner-up finishes without a win stat that I’ve brought up three times in Stat Sheet is now obsolete. I now have to be more creative with my critiques of Bell and his season going forward.

One thing that has not changed after the first race of The Chase is Toyota being the dominant manufacturer. Let’s go ahead and crunch the numbers from Darlington Raceway.

256 – Laps Led by Toyotas

Between Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing, Toyota was a constant presence up front at The Track Too Tough to Tame.

Overall, Toyotas led 256 of the 367 laps in the Southern 500, split between five drivers in their stable: Tyler Reddick (74), Denny Hamlin (68), Bell (46), Bubba Wallace (38) and Chase Briscoe (30).

Furthermore, of the 111 laps Toyota did not pace the field, 99 came from one driver: Larson, whose winless streak extended to 51 after falling to fifth in the closing laps.

33 – Winless Streak Snapped by Christopher Bell

Speaking of winless streaks, that is what Bell had before picking up the second crown jewel victory of his Cup career, adding to his 2024 Coca-Cola 600 triumph.

That came primarily at the expense of Larson, who continues to be mired in the third-longest winless streak of his career. But when you stack that up against the winless streak of other Cup drivers, it could be worse for the two-time and reigning champion.

As you can see, Larson only possesses the 11th-longest winless streak among prior Cup Series winners. On the other hand, one strike against him is that he is one of just two prior Cup champions on the list, joined by Brad Keselowski and his 86-race drought.

26 – Positions Gained by Ty Gibbs

Due to qualifying being canceled because of weather, the lineup for the Southern 500 was set by the NASCAR qualifying metric, a weighted average that uses a team’s owner’s standings position (weighted 30%) and its most recent finish (weighted 70%).

The most recent race going into Darlington was the Coke Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. This led to the metric spitting a rather interesting lineup, with some Chase drivers starting near the back of the field.

One of those drivers was Ty Gibbs, who took the green flag back in 28th. However, playing into the night’s theme of Toyota dominance, Gibbs quickly maneuvered his way through the field, rising to 10th at the end of stage one to pick up a stage point. Though settling for 11th in stage two, Gibbs steadily worked his way through the top 10 in the final stage, ultimately finishing second behind Bell.

It was a testament to how strong the Toyotas were that Gibbs gained 26 spots on a track like Darlington where it is difficult to pass, with minimal help from the yellow flag.

19 – Positions Lost by Daniel Suarez

On the other side of the spectrum, you have Daniel Suarez, who benefitted from the qualifying metric to the tune of an outside pole starting position.

Seeded 11th entering The Chase, could a good starting position jumpstart a move up the standings for Suarez? Well … no.

Suarez got a great start in his No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet and led the first two laps. That proved to be the sole highlight of his night as he got passed by Hamlin on lap 3 and then swiftly sputtered through the field to finish stage one in 26th.

In the end, Suarez faded to 21st, the second-worst finish among all Chase drivers except for William Byron, who placed 37th following a mechanical failure. Now, Suarez is 13th in the standings and 94 points back of Hamlin, his championship perhaps already dashed.

3.59 – Average Running Position for Tyler Reddick

Are we seeing the return of early-season Reddick here in The Chase? If the No. 45 team’s run on Sunday is any indication, the answer to that question may well be “yes.”

Reddick started on the pole (per the metric), maintained his good track position by spending all but three of the 367 laps (99.2% of the race) within the top 15, and put the exclamation point on a great performance by taking home a third-place finish. All of it together adds up to a 3.59 average running position in the Southern 500, a position better than race winner Bell (4.88).

Furthermore, Reddick achieved an astonishing 1.5 average finish in the two Darlington races this season. Clearly, the driver of the No. 45 has The Lady in Black figured out.

31 – Combined Points Lost by Denny Hamlin and Justin Allgaier

Darlington turned out to be a bad weekend for the points leader entering The Chase.

As the top seeds in the Cup and NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, respectively, Hamlin and Justin Allgaier each earned a 25-point lead to commence the postseason.

Both left Darlington still in the top spot but with far slimmer points margins. In the NOAPS race Saturday (Sept. 5), Allgaier wound up on the wrong side of the pit strategy with severely worn tires in the close laps, plummeting to 17th at a track where he normally runs much better. Allgaier’s finish combined with Sheldon Creed’s win narrowed his points lead to seven.

On the Cup side, Hamlin got into a late-race accident with Michael McDowell, significantly damaging his No. 11 JGR Toyota. Hamlin somewhat rebounded to 18th but left Darlington just 12 markers up on Bell, shrouding some doubt whether this is finally his year to win that elusive Cup title after several near misses.

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Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 and is currently an editor and a weekly writer of Stat Sheet. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.

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