DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks: Southern 500 at Darlington

“You don’t go to war with warm milk and cookies.” – Curt Cignetti

Well my dear readers, if you’re feeling that crisp fall chill creeping behind what’s left of summer’s heat, it can only mean one thing:

The Chase is back on.

That’s right, the NASCAR Cup Series’ original postseason format, The Chase for the Championship, starts for the first time since 2013 at Darlington Raceway tomorrow (Sept. 6).

The thing about Darlington is that it’s a driver’s track through and through. It takes a tremendous amount of effort and skill to ride the outside wall. It takes patience to get the good out of the setup and the tires late in a run. But it takes an absolute iron will to survive the final crown jewel of the season.

If you look at the Southern 500 trophy, you’ll see plenty of Hall of Famers, but this place has been kind to an underdog or two.

For me, the winner is definitely going to come out of the Toyota camp. If you look at that roster for Joe Gibbs Racing in particular, I’d say it’s a coin toss between Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, to be sure.

I am so reluctant to count them out, but Chase Elliott and William Byron are who I’d look away from. Byron has been strong here in the past, but his team has been a shell of itself all season compared to 2025. As for Elliott, it just feels as though he’s on a downward spiral to end 2026, even when his NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet is fast.

For the entirety of the run to the championship, I’m going to present my lineup in order of confidence level rather than monetary value. So without further ado, here’s this week’s roster.

Fantasy Forecast

Chase Briscoe $9,800

I’m giving the nod to the defending Southern 500 winner this week.

Briscoe had an interesting regular season, at times being unable to close on good performances and other times just being unable to find a way to finish altogether. However, since his win at Chicagoland Speedway on July 4th weekend, this team just feels different.

He’s been a part of the conversation every week while still being somehow under the radar, which is the way crew chief James Small likes it.

Look for Briscoe to establish himself as a serious contender Sunday night.

Kyle Larson $10,000

I’m leaning heavily towards picking Kyle Larson to win this week, though I’m afraid to do it.

Shockingly still winless this season, and perhaps more shockingly not being labeled a serious title contender, the defending champion may be mathematically eliminated early if he runs the way he has the past few weeks during this 10-race run to the title.

I don’t think that’ll be the case though. He’s won this very race in the Next Gen car, and he has never finished outside the top 20 in this era.

This reminds me so much of the Jeff Gordon 2002 winless streak so much, and if my memory serves me correctly, this was about the time he came to life that season too.

Ty Gibbs $8,800

If there’s one thing about Ty Gibbs this season that I’ve come to realize, it’s that the kid has the “right stuff,” as Doc Hudson would say.

The tracks he’s won at this season, like Bristol Motor Speedway and Iowa Speedway, in my mind at least, are driver’s tracks.

With Darlington being the ultimate destination for that kind of racing, I think Gibbs is a serious contender for his first crown jewel victory. I think it’s more realistic he snags a top-10 run though.

Carson Hocevar $7,900

I don’t like the trajectory that Carson Hocevar is on, let me clear about that.

Kind of in the way that Elliott and Byron have been in free fall mode lately, the polarizing young driver fell from fifth in points all the way down to 12th in the run up up to the postseason, and momentum seems to have shifted.

However, he was really good at Darlington this past spring in the 400 mile event.

If he can manage to not overdrive his car or put himself in a bad situation, I think he can wheel that No. 77 Chevrolet Camaro to a top five.

Erik Jones $7,500

I owe a lot to Erik Jones being an ace in the hole when he runs at Darlington.

Back in 2022, I won my first ever NASCAR bet by taking Jones to win at +2500 if my memory serves me, and I was able to convert that into a beautiful anniversary gift for my wife.

For that reason, despite his own troubles over the past few weeks that prevented him from getting Legacy Motor Club’s first postseason berth, I gotta roll with him again.

In 19 career Cup Series starts at the track “Too Tough to Tame,” he’s averaging an unreal 11.8 career average finish, along with two Southern 500 wins in both the Next Gen and Gen 6 cars. Folks, he has 12 top tens here in 19 starts!

He’s my Darlington guy. Period.

John Hunter Nemechek $6,000

John Hunter Nemechek has sure had a crappy week.

After a pretty decent run at Daytona International Speedway that saw him snag a top-15 finish, it was announced that he would not be returning to Legacy Motor Club in 2027.

With his future now in doubt, it is now time for him to make someone impressed enough to give him another shot at this level.

When it happened to Josh Berry a few weeks ago, it lit something on fire inside that driver, and he’s rattled off five straight top-10 finishes.

I don’t know if that will apply to JHN, but for fantasy reasons, I could see him gaining a few points.

Top Bets of the Week

Briscoe, +650

Listen, this killed me. I wanted to bet the farm on Larson or even Hamlin, but I just keep coming back to how much I like the way Briscoe has looked leading up to The Chase.

I’m reminded of how it was kind of the same thing last season and he came out and won that race and wound up in the now defunct Championship 4.

The smart money says No. 19 this weekend.

Dark Horse of the Week: Jones +3100

But the believers money, the believer in this humble betting writer remembers 2022 fondly.

The believers money is screaming to go in the direction of that Jones boy, and I must listen to the call. I know a lot has to go right for this one.

But this is what betting is all about. I’m not going to call Jones winning the Southern 500 an upset, because he’s done it twice. But I will call it an absolute fun circumstance that I would love to cash in on one more time.