Holding A Pretty Wheel: The Chase Is the Goal, but the Agendas Are Different

If you like chaos on the racetrack, the NASCAR Cup Series has delivered over the last few weeks. Fifteen weeks into the season, some of the drivers who started hot have cooled and others are just beginning to simmer. There are just 11 weeks left until the Chase begins and the 10-week title hunt gets underway.

Which explains some of the chaos. Winning no longer guarantees a spot in the championship field. Drivers have to be in the top 16 in points at the 26-week mark, and the pressure around the cutoff is intensifying every week. Just 43 points separate 14th and 19th place, and that battle is heating up more by the week.

Ryan Preece sits just 19 points outside the top 16. Preece started the season with 12 straight lead-lap finishes before three DNFs in a row slowed his roll as well as a 25-point penalty for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs at Texas Motor Speedway. Whether you agree with that penalty or not, Preece would still be in the top 16 without it.

Meanwhile, Erik Jones has turned up the wick with four top-13 finishes in the last five races, including a runner-up result Sunday (June 7) at Michigan International Speedway. He’s crept up to 18th in points, 18 below the cutoff heading to Pocono Raceway, where he’s been solid in the past.

While most of the hype falls around the drivers close to the Chase bubble, the reality of the format means that while they have a real shot of making the top 16 in 11 weeks, they’re unlikely to contend for the title. Under the playoff format, a driver seeded near the back could move forward if someone ahead of him had bad luck in a three-race round. The multiple resets kept the field artificially close.

The Chase doesn’t afford that opportunity. After the initial points reset after race 26, every point will matter for the next 10 weeks. If someone hits a hot streak, the title could be wrapped up in nine. Realistically, even with the points reset, maybe a half dozen teams have a real shot at the title. The original Chase featured only the top 10 drivers, which is probably a truer representation of the actual contenders.

What the format does do is paint a better picture of who the best teams and drivers in the sport are. There’s still a chance for someone to go on a summer run nobody can ignore or to have a slump, but most likely the title will be decided among the top five or six drivers in points right now.

That group includes point leader Tyler Reddick, who leads the Cup series with five wins, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Gibbs and Kyle Larson. Carson Hocevar or Daniel Suarez could crash that party with a couple more wins, but right now they’re just a tick behind. Larson is just clinging to that group and could easily be grouped with Hocevar and Suarez.

Throw Chris Buescher in that mix as well because he’s been consistent all year. A couple of wins could give him forward momentum. 

Christopher Bell could certainly do just that as well; he’s been tantalizingly close to victory lane this year—but he’s also injured and Joe Gibbs Racing won’t speculate on his availability for this weekend’s race at Pocono. The Tricky Triangle is a track where the potential for another brutal hit is there, so sitting out might not be a bad idea for Bell, who can still make the Chase on points. 

Once you dip below Bell on the points list, none of the rest of the drivers in the top 16 (Bubba Wallace, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Shane van Gisbergen, Brad Keselowski and Austin Cindric) have shown the consistency that suggests that regular wins are just around the corner or that they could make a serious title run. It does make a case for cutting the Chase to 10, but there is also a good reason not to.

Even making the Chase gives teams and drivers a level of exposure that even the drivers just outside the cut don’t enjoy. During the regular season, drivers on both sides of the cut line enjoy a lot of airtime as they fight for the last spot. 

But once the Chase starts, the rest of the field might as well be invisible. That’s no different than it was during the playoff era, but those teams won’t get much attention on television unless they win races or take out contenders.

For drivers like Jones, who drives for Legacy Motor Club, which has less factory support than its Toyota counterparts and that has struggled to find a footing as a Cup contender, that exposure is the prize. Even for some of the teams within larger organizations that aren’t quite at the level of their teammates, like Cindric, simply making the Chase is the goal, the accomplishment the team is aiming for. Anything else is cake.

For the middle of the Chase pack, the goal is higher than simply being there, but the title is still a stretch at best. If they can win a race from the elite group or even finish higher in points, they will have had a great season. Again, one of them could hit their stride at the right time and pull off a surprise title attack, but if they don’t, it will not have been a wasted season by any measure.

Winning titles at the Cup level in the 21st century is generally reserved for the elite: not only the most talented drivers, but the ones whose teams have the deepest pockets. It also takes experience. Blaney, Elliott and Larson know how to win titles because they have won titles. Hamlin has been in the mix until the bitter end, though he has also been his own worst enemy. Reddick has playoff experience.

Drivers like Hocevar, who lack experience in running for a title at the Cup level, would do well to approach this one like a learning experience: log laps, avoid trouble, learn how to maximize every single situation under immense pressure. Some drivers with some playoff experience still need to learn how to race for a title, which is a different level than just making it.

And for those for whom making it is the main goal, running consistently and making the most of every race will put them in a better position for next year.

While the Chase is about crowning a champion, the 16 drivers who make the cut are not all realistic contenders, at least not this year. Teams have different agendas. But regardless of whether it’s about making the cut and attracting sponsorship for the future via the airtime Chase drivers get or about taking it to the wire for all the marbles, making the Chase is a challenge. It requires consistency and luck along with backing and equipment.

They may have different goals for the Chase if they get there, but they all want to get there. Cue the chaos for the next 11 weeks, because the wick is only getting turned up from here.