Is This The Chase NASCAR Fans Wanted?

Kyle Larson looked in command in taking the win at Kansas Speedway last Sunday. Leading for 235 of the 267 laps and walking away with 76 points, Larson catapulted himself into a 26-point lead over Denny Hamlin.

But Hamlin’s position means that there is a chance that the battle for the big trophy will still have some vitality to it, because this newly reincarnated Chase format looks like it could turn into a Jimmie Johnson-esque cruise for Larson. If you remember way back, Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus seemed to figure out The Chase format quicker than anyone else in the garage and steamrolled through on their way to their early titles. Larson and Cliff Daniels have seemingly borrowed the No. 48’s old notebooks and are attempting to do their best impression.

The question that arises is whether or not the new format is ‘working’, and that term can be taken in a number of ways. One of the criticisms against the playoff format had been that an unworthy driver could basically steal the title through fluky circumstances and that a driver who had performed best over the course of the year could be felled by a couple spotty races.  

If The Chase is meant to rectify that, then there is reason to argue that it is doing its job … sort of. Larson holding the lead right now is a reflection of how he has led the most laps in the series this year, currently at 1118. But consider that Ryan Blaney, second in laps led with 1035, is fifth in points and 91 back. For a driver that has been at the front, his chances for winning the title look increasingly slim.

Third in laps led with 950, Hamlin looks in a better position, as mentioned. But if we shift to looking at wins, Larson has gone to victory lane just twice this year – both being beautifully timed in The Chase. Joey Logano, who has also found his stride late in the year, like Larson, is sitting in fourth, 67 behind the leader and may represent the de facto cutoff line for who is still in the championship running.

Oddly enough, Tyler Reddick, who had the statistically improbable run of five-straight wins to open the season, is only in seventh and 111 points behind the leader. It looks like his strong start was not a pace he could maintain, something highlighted by having led only 523 laps on the year. So, the ‘winning means more’ concept doesn’t really apply anymore. Insert Matt Kenseth joke here.

What we’re seeing is that the top fives and top 10s are where the money is made, proverbially speaking. Hamlin leads the top-five category with 15, while Larson and Christopher Bell – sitting third in the standings – are tied with 13. The top-10 category shows a similar statistic scattering as Hamlin has 20, and Larson with 17.

Blaney has 19 top-10s and Ty Gibbs 18, but their DNFs may be the reason for the challenges on the season and in The Chase.

So, in a way, it looks like The Chase is working as it should even with the reset. The drivers who have been consistently good or decent, made The Chase and the better of those drivers have ascended to the top. Everyone should be happy. But are they?

The reason for asking is to wonder if The Chase is providing the drama that helps everyone involved stick around for 36 races. The season is long and there are definite moments of slogging through or not being able to maintain the same energy throughout. The Chase, in some ways, is supposed to be the time when adrenaline and excitement flow the most, but with six races left, the show is starting to feel like one where we might have seen this story before.

Larson is, in no way, guaranteed the title – 26 points is just not enough to waltz error free to capturing another championship. But much of the field is already eliminated, statistically speaking. Even Bell, in good position, has led only 606 laps and snagged only one win, so to think that he might go on a tear and earn the title is more unlikely than probable.

Maybe that’s just the way it goes sometimes; just like when a driver would rip through the season and have the championship clenched with two races to go. Formula 1 and IndyCar seem to have no problem in seeing their seasons finish in that way, and there’s a chance NASCAR could see the same again soon. Looks like everything old really is new again.