Friday Faceoff: Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at COTA?

1. Who are you taking in the Cup race at Circuit of the Americas: Shane van Gisbergen or the field?

Christopher Hansen: Shane van Gisbergen, and it’s no contest. The Auckland, New Zealand, native has won the last five road-course races dating to the end of 2025. If he wins Sunday, which he has a very good chance of doing, van Gisbergen will tie NASCAR Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon’s mark of six consecutive road-course wins. With a strong knowledge of knowing what his car needs to succeed at road courses, van Gisbergen will step into the history books. Despite not having a win at COTA, I still expect van Gisbergen will be a contender.

Chris Graham: I’m taking the field — not because van Gisbergen can’t win it but because there’s just too much depth in the field. The list of people who can beat him here is already long. Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch and William Byron were the big three last year. Tyler Reddick is the hottest guy in the sport right now. Plus Connor Zilisch is no longer a novelty act but rather a full-time rookie trying to reset his season at the same track where his NASCAR Cup Series debut showed speed before ending early. It’s just hard for me to take one guy over everybody.

Michael Finley: This isn’t an easy answer, as van Gisbergen looked very mortal in the cooler temperatures of this race last year. That being said, it was also just the third weekend that car was on the track after Trackhouse Racing had expanded in the offseason. I’ll stick with van Gisbergen as long as the temperatures do not get as low as they were last year.

Jeffrey Boswell: How can you not take van Gisbergen, who’s won five consecutive road courses? The field? It’s getting lapped. That being said, if van Gisbergen doesn’t win, it will be because of the field, or more specifically because of someone in the field whose road-course chops don’t measure up, who then makes a mistake and takes van Gisbergen out of contention.

2. This weekend is the first of just four road courses on the Cup schedule, a downward trend from recent years. What is the ideal number of road courses for the calendar?

Michael Bellifemini: The perfect number is five. I would like to see a rotating street-course date every year and maybe even rotating road courses in and out of the schedule. It would be cool to see a Cup race back at Road America, and hopefully it can get a date at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in the near future, too.

Finley: Six is the optimal number. If NASCAR retains its four road courses next year, adds Circuit Gilles Villeneuve like it’s been wanting to and moves Watkins Glen International to September, I’d be happy with that.

Graham: Six is my sweet spot. It’s about building a schedule that actually tests a champion across different kinds of racing. Right now, the Cup calendar has COTA, Watkins Glen and Sonoma Raceway as the three true road courses, plus Naval Base Coronado — four total non-ovals. That’s a real pullback from the earlier part of the decade, when NASCAR itself talked about expanding the schedule to six road courses. With the sport still visiting the drafting-style superspeedway tracks multiple times a year (Daytona International Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway and EchoPark Speedway each have two dates), six road/street races feels like a fair counterweight. With the new points system rewarding consistency over a variety of tracks, we should see more road courses.

Hansen: Four to five is the ideal number. The drivers in the Cup Series are the best for a reason, and road-course racing is an important skillset for a driver to have. With the removal of the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL starting this season, the sweet spot is to have four road courses even spaced throughout the season to avoid any possible fatigue.

3. Now that Sheldon Creed has finally won a NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race, how many races will he win in 2026? Is he now one of the championship favorites?

Graham: Sheldon Creed will win again, but I’m not ready to pencil in a breakout season just because the dam finally cracked. Creed’s first career O’Reilly win came in his 138th start, and it took a late-race pileup of circumstances for the door to open. That doesn’t make it a fluke — it makes it a reminder of how razor-thin the margins have been for him. So my call: one to two wins total in 2026, and yes, he’s now a legitimate championship contender … but not a clear-cut favorite until he proves he can back it up the very next time he’s in position. And with the 2026 Chase format putting playoff entry and the title path back on points-based consistency (no automatic berths for wins), that week-to-week execution is exactly what will determine whether Creed’s year becomes a breakthrough or not.

Boswell: Creed could win 3-4 races, as he is a well-rounded talent, and as he did in 2025, can challenge for wins at every type of track, whether it be superspeedway, short track, road course or medium-length oval. What may prevent Creed from challenging for a championship is consistency. In 10 races last season, he finished 27th or worse. And with consistency playing much more of a role in the crowning of a champion, the lack of it could be what keeps Creed from winning it all.

Bellifemini: Creed could snag three or four wins now that the floodgates are finally open. I put him in early championship contention along the likes of Jesse Love, Justin Allgaier and Austin Hill.

Hansen: Now that the monkey is finally off his back, Creed can have a much more relaxed approach. Creed has exceled on the drafting tracks in years past and should be a threat to win on those track types. Additionally, he’s come close to winning at places like Darlington Raceway and Martinsville Speedway in previous seasons. I expect Creed to win two more races this season and be in contention for the championship.

4. Who will finish the highest of the ringers running the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race on the Streets of St. Petersburg?

Finley: Colin Braun. He’s the only one of them who has a decent idea of what to expect. Dario Franchitti did do half a Cup season, but that was long ago and he’s been retired from competitive racing for well over a decade now.

Bellifemini: James Hinchcliffe since he is driving a Spire Motorsports truck and has a lot of experience on the St. Petersburg circuit. His first of six NTT IndyCar Series wins came on the street course in 2013.

Boswell: Three-time Indianapolis 500 winner and four-time IndyCar champion Franchitti is probably the popular pick, but I’ll go with IndyCar veteran Hinchcliffe. While Hinchcliffe’s IndyCar resume doesn’t stand up to Franchitti’s, Hinchcliffe has something that Franchitti does not: a second-place finish in the 23rd season of Dancing With the Stars. Not many people can say that, other than the other long-forgotten second-place finishers. And what is road-course racing in the Truck Series other than footwork?

Donate to Frontstretch

Michael Bellifemini joined Frontstretch in February 2026 as a contributor. Bellifemini was born and raised in New Jersey and graduated from Seton Hall University. He called Seton Hall men's and women's basketball games for their college radio station, 89.5 FM WSOU, and continues to broadcast in the area. Outside of covering NASCAR, Bellifemini is also an avid baseball, football, basketball, and hockey fan and enjoys watching different sports leagues on a daily basis.

Michael has watched NASCAR for over 25 years and has covered it on-and-off for 14.

In addition to Frontstretch he also writes sporadically for his own websites GrandPrixFocus.com and StockCarFocus.com.

FS Square Frontstretch Logo

Chris Graham is a motorsports producer, director, and broadcast engineer based in the Philadelphia-area. Through his work with NRN Productions, he’s helped build and execute live race coverage and sports streaming workflows ranging from lean, two-to-three person crews to full broadcast-style productions. Chris has worked across nearly every position in the truck—producing, directing, technical directing, replay, graphics, camera operation, and engineering—and has supported events and partners including FloSports, the ASA STARS National Tour, and Diamond State Digital. He’s also involved in developing live show formats and digital coverage that bring fans closer to the stories behind the racing. He is currently also the producer for the Frontstretch podcast Happy Hour.

A name and email address are required to post a comment. The email address is not publicly visible or shared. Please keep in mind that comments are moderated according to our comment policy.

Comments are listed in order from oldest to newest. Leave a comment

1 thought on “Friday Faceoff: Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at COTA?”

  1. SVG vs. the field: Gimme the field. SVG has been miles ahead of everyone else on long runs, due to superior tire management. But there’s no guarantee the race will end on worn tires. Multiple drivers last year kept up on short runs, and if Zilisch’s skills translate to cup, he may be able to keep SVG in sight even on a long run. If there is a late caution, there’s always a high likelihood of someone pulling a Hocevar with an ill advised dive bomb.

    Perfect number of road courses is six. Keeps the overall history of the sport with predominantly ovals, but also gives drivers six races where their skill (or lack thereof) may matter more than it does on the cookie cutter ovals, which are all about engineering.

    Over/under on additional Creed wins this year is one. He was fast last year, but seldom able to match the top JRM or RCR cars in a given week. Still, I think he has a great season, and given the inherent randomness of the championship system, a title would be a surprise, but not a shock. Just would need a little luck.

    Braun for top truck ringer. The most experienced in this style of racing, and also least likely to get dumped by a regular due to increased familiarity in the garage. NASCAR drivers have a tendency to drive through moonlighting drivers.

Comments are closed.