Who will win the NASCAR Cup Series championship?
Luken Glover: This one is unique in that it has no clear-cut favorite. A sizable factor is due to Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, three of the best drivers this season, not advancing to the Championship 4. Tyler Reddick has done an admirable job of getting there, and you can never sleep on Joey Logano. However, I’m watching for William Byron and Ryan Blaney to fight it out for the championship. Byron’s near-miss on making the title race might have some sleeping on him, and he hasn’t won since the spring. However, Byron has run the most laps in the top five at Phoenix Raceway among the Championship 4 drivers and won there last spring. Blaney has been adamant about his belief in momentum, and he has all of it in the world following his win at Martinsville Speedway. History is on the line for Blaney to be the first driver to win back-to-back titles under the current format. He also has finished in the top five in every Next Gen race at Phoenix. To compare, no other driver has finished in the top 10 in all five races. In the end, I’ll give a slight edge to Byron because of how hard it is to win consecutive titles, but it will be a dogfight.
Mark Kristl: Never bet against even-year Logano. In 31 races at Phoenix, he has 16 top 10s so he’s fast there. Three wins, eight top fives and 908 laps led in total for the driver of the No. 22. He’s on a stretch of three straight races there with zero top 10s, but he and his Team Penske team rise to the occasion both under pressure and at special events. He is a two-time Cup champion, winner of the first Busch Light Clash at the LA Coliseum, 2015 Daytona 500 winner, won the ’22 All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway and has 35 career wins. To boot, he won the Cup championship the last time he had at least two wins. Logano goes from being momentarily out of the playoffs to champion.
Dan Greene: Logano.
Mike Neff: The championship truly is a crapshoot this year. It is an even-numbered year, so you have to think Logano will win. At the same time, Blaney did it last year and is fast enough; if mistakes don’t torpedo the team’s effort he should be able to go back to back. The Cinderella story of course is Byron, who shouldn’t really be there but would be the ultimate surprise winner. Then there is Reddick — driver for 23XI Racing, one of the teams that is suing the sanctioning body, racing for one of the most famous people in the world. It would be an unbelievable story to cap off a crazy season. Put them in a hat and draw out a name, it will probably be Reddick.
James Krause: Byron will win the title one of two ways. He will either dominate and have the strongest car of the day or win out with a clutch pit stop late that’s become the signature of Hendrick Motorsports title wins in recent years. The No. 24 crew is ranked second in all of NASCAR in terms of four-tire stops, by far the best among the Championship 4. Blaney is entering with momentum and is the best of the final four at Phoenix, but a clean day for Byron will win out.
Will non-Championship 4 drivers play spoiler for the race wins?
Greene: Ross Chastain for Trackhouse Racing and the three Hendrick drivers who are on the outside looking in could all pull off a win. My dark horse is Kyle Busch. Maybe he pulls out all the stops and finally gets that 2024 win. Richard Childress Racing hasn’t won a fall race at Phoenix since 2013, so it’s unlikely. However, 2024 NASCAR racing has been full of the unexpected.
Kristl: The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Championship 4 has the series’ best four drivers. While there are candidates to win the NASCAR Xfinity Series race, three of those Championship 4 have at least two wins. Justin Allgaier leads the field with 16 stage wins. So don’t bet on a non-Championship 4 driver winning that race. Because of the big names not in the Cup Championship 4, we’ll see a different race winner and titlist on Sunday. Take your pick. Hamlin, Bell, Larson, Chase Elliott, Chastain and Ty Gibbs are all good options.
Krause: Yes. For one, we saw it just last season with Chastain, who should be among the favorites to win despite the suspensions from Martinsville. On top of that, there are a few potential sentimental wins who could come to close out the season. Martin Truex Jr. could ride off into the sunset as a winner. Chase Briscoe, who has a win at Phoenix already, could close out Stewart-Haas Racing with a walkoff victory. Maybe this is the weekend Busch finally gets his first win of the season.
Glover: There are good chances of it happening in both the Cup and Truck series. While it has only happened once in Cup, it occurred a year ago, and the Next Gen car has opened the door even wider for it to happen multiple times. Keep an eye on last year’s winner Chastain, Bell or someone like Hamlin. The Truck Series has had it happen the most, including two of the past four finales at Phoenix, and the aggressive nature of the series tends to pull some non-playoff drivers to the top. Out of all three series, the Xfinity Series may be the one where the cream will rise to the top. Only once has the winner of the title race been a non-playoff driver, and with both the reigning champion, Cole Custer, and one of Phoenix’s best in Allgaier fighting for the title, that is where the greatest odds of a championship contender winning may lie.
Neff: In the Cup Series, probably. There are too many quality teams not in the final four. In the other series, don’t expect any upset winners. Larson is a great choice for an upset win at Phoenix.
What is your ideal playoff format?
Krause: The Chase format of taking the top 12 in points, resetting the points and having a 10-race run to the championship. Sure, winning is great, but it’s been prioritized over consistency in recent years by teams, drivers and fans. On top of that, eliminating the cutoff races and just having a straight 10-race run not only will reward the best driver of that run but will also cut out a lot of those pure desperation moves that we’ve seen throughout this season that have spoiled some races. Is it nearly as fun for the fans? No. Will more people be turning off the race excited for next week and a little prouder of the product than they were at Martinsville? Yes.
Neff: Miss-N-Out is the best format. Either every lap or every few laps, the last-place car is eliminated. This continues for the entire race until there is only one driver left. Race all year to accumulate points. At the end of the year, the points determine the starting lineup of the championship race. Drop the flag and eliminate teams until there is only one standing.
Glover: Several have voiced a desire for a return to the season-long points format, which has its benefits, for sure. However, that could just be the nostalgia talking in some cases. I have nothing against a season-long points battle, and it would be preferable over the current playoffs. Both the NTT IndyCar Series and Formula 1 use season-long formats, but they also have shorter seasons. I would like to see race winners receive more points as well as the return of points being awarded for leading laps and having the most laps led. That said, I would not mind a return to the 10-driver Chase. It rewards consistency and points but also keeps some unpredictability for those who don’t want an early champion. It also requires drivers to be strong all year long and not transition to cruise control in the final 10 races.
Greene: No playoffs at all. The championship should be the driver with the best season. The Cup season is long and shouldn’t be decided by whoever ends up in an artificial sprint at the end. Matt Kenseth had the most consistent finishes over 36 races in 2003, and he deserved the title. If you want winning to be more important, you just give the race winner more points. It doesn’t have to be complicated.
Kristl: Admittedly this is tough because each format has benefits and downsides. How about a two-round format where half the playoff field is eliminated at the halfway point and the remaining eight have their points reset, where all are equal for the final five races? That better balances winning and consistency.
There are still multiple openings in all three NASCAR national series. Which is the most interesting?
Kristl: Spire Motorsports and Rev Racing, as the two go hand in hand, have no set drivers. Rev driver Andres Perez won the ARCA Menards Series title, but will he go to Rev, Spire or another opening such as the Roper Racing entry he’s driving at Phoenix? Chase Purdy has said he has nothing signed for 2025. Is Rajah Caruth confirmed to return to the No. 71? What about Corey Day or Lavar Scott? Both organizations have top-notch equipment. Whoever pilots those rides is an immediate candidate to contend for wins and make the playoffs.
Glover: Nearly all the Cup openings have been filled or have a heavy favorite. Pending the results of its lawsuit against NASCAR, Front Row Motorsports’ third car has yet to be announced, though Zane Smith has been linked to the seat. The low-hanging fruit is the No. 19 at McAnally-Hilgemann Racing. Christian Eckes is departing for the Xfinity Series after winning the regular-season title in the ride and having a shot to win the championship. A couple of drivers have made part-time starts for the team in another entry, but not much has been disclosed about potential candidates for the ride. Daniel Hemric could also be an option as he will likely leave the Cup Series. Whoever gets the ride will inherit large expectations in a truck ready to win.
Neff: 23XI is, for the uncertainty of the lawsuit against NASCAR and the potential fallout.
Krause: The top of the Truck Series is going to look very different next season with several of its top rides already open next season. Chief among them is the No. 19 Chevrolet currently driven by Eckes. MHR could have an almost entirely new lineup, but it’s especially interesting how it’ll replace the driver who took the team to the Championship 4.
Greene: FRM and 23XI have lawsuit drama and potentially open seats, depending on how everything shakes out. But the most interesting seat is the third car for RFK Racing. Kroger and Ryan Preece are rumored to be the sponsor and driver, but nothing has been officially confirmed or announced. While RFK has improved since Brad Keselowski came on board in 2022, it’s not at the top of the Ford lineup. Three full-time cars might need to wait another season or two.
About the author
Mark Kristl joined Frontstretch at the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR season. He is the site's ARCA Menards Series editor. Kristl is also an Eagle Scout and a proud University of Dayton alum.
Luken Glover joined the Frontstretch team in 2020 as a contributor, furthering a love for racing that traces back to his earliest memories. Glover inherited his passion for racing from his grandfather, who used to help former NASCAR team owner Junie Donlavey in his Richmond, Va. garage. A 2023 graduate from the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is the author of "The Underdog House," contributes to commentary pieces, and does occasional at-track reporting. Additionally, Glover enjoys working in ministry, coaching basketball, playing sports, and karting.
James Krause joined Frontstretch in March 2024 as a contributor. Krause was born and raised in Illinois and graduated from Northern Illinois University. He currently works in La Crosse, Wisconsin as a local sports reporter, including local short track racing. Outside of racing, Krause loves to keep up with of football, music, anime and video games.
What is it that Mike Neff doesn’t do? The writer, radio contributor and racetrack announcer coordinates the site’s local short track coverage, hitting up Saturday Night Specials across the country while tracking the sport’s future racing stars. The writer for our signature Cup post-race column, Thinkin’ Out Loud (Mondays) also sits down with Cup crew chiefs to talk shop every Friday with Tech Talk. Mike announces several shows each year for the Good Guys Rod and Custom Association. He also pops up everywhere from PRN Pit Reporters and the Press Box with Alan Smothers to SIRIUS XM Radio. He has announced at tracks all over the Southeast, starting at Millbridge Speedway. He's also announced at East Lincoln Speedway, Concord Speedway, Tri-County Speedway, Caraway Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway.
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Who will win the Championship…who cares? As big a joke as some of the previous “Play Offs” have been, this year has taken it to a whole new level.
If I had to pick a favorite, I’d say it’s likely Logano, but how do you have a championship when the two best drivers in the series this year, Larson and Bell aren’t in the finals? Additionally, two finalists (and one the now likely favorite) are only in the finals because two other drivers were disqualified. Based on points, top 5’s, top 10’s, average finish etc, Byron’s the only driver of the four finalists who actually deserves to be there, but he only got in because Bell was thrown out!
I can’t decide if this is all really sad, or really ridiculous?
Get rid of the chase. It was developed for tv, plain and simple. Second, get rid of so-called overtime races. Whoever is ahead wins.