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Friday Faceoff: Has Kyle Busch Hit Rock Bottom?

Has Kyle Busch hit rock bottom in his NASCAR Cup Series career?

Mark Kristl: Other than more DNFs further worsening his points position, yes. This is the least competitive I’ve seen Kyle Busch, and it’s painful to watch. He is one of the all-time greats and is driving for historic Richard Childress Racing, yet he is not a regular contender. His average finishing position is his second worst, only a few spots better than his rookie season in 2005. He has finished in the top 10 in less than a third of the season, which would be his career worst. To boot, he knows he’s hit rock bottom; hence why he dumped Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at North Wilkesboro Speedway, was involved in that skirmish and openly said he’d be willing to return to Joe Gibbs Racing or Hendrick Motorsports.

Kevin Nix: In terms of a full season, no, but this is a horrible stretch he’s in right now. He’s finished 35th in three of the last four races, and he’s on track to have his worst season since he was a rookie in 2005. In years past, when Busch has had bad stretches, he has typically recovered either the next season or in the second half of that year. He finished fourth in points in 2013 after missing the playoffs entirely in 2012. If one or two more months go by and he’s still running outside the top 25 on pace, it’s time to hit the panic button. But he’s still close enough to the cutline right now that if he recovers starting this weekend at Nashville Superspeedway this weekend, he can point his way in.

Andrew Stoddard: Close but not there yet. After all, Busch missed the playoffs in 2009 and 2012, so arguably those were worse moments in his career. You could make a case for 2020 as well when Busch did not win until Texas Motor Speedway, the 34th out of 36 races on the Cup schedule. If Busch winds up missing the playoffs and/or goes winless, 2024 will be without a doubt the worst season of his Cup career.

Mike Neff: Rock bottom is a little too extreme. Prior to New Hampshire Motor Speedway, he had five races in a row where he was running in the top 10 and working closer to the front as the race evolved. Unfortunately, bad luck reared its head and prevented a strong finish.

See also
2-Headed Monster: Is Ford Repeating History & Losing Top Talent?

Will RCR benefit from Andy Petree’s retirement?

Nix: It’s hard not to, considering how abysmally the team has performed in the last two months. Busch was running outside the top 30 on speed at New Hampshire, which is inexcusable no matter how you slice it. It was clear RCR needed to do something to rock the boat for both of its drivers to have any chance of salvaging this season. A new voice steering the ship with development and race strategy always has the chance to be successful.

Kristl: It can’t hurt but it won’t help. The problem with the No. 3 is its driver. Austin Dillon has shown no ability to turn his performance around. And Busch very well may have hit rock bottom. The only bright spot RCR has going for it is its NASCAR Xfinity Series program, but Austin Hill has increasingly made more adversaries and Jesse Love has cooled off with zero top 10s since Darlington Raceway. In stick-and-ball sports, when a team’s performance has gone downhill as badly as it has at RCR, someone inevitably becomes a scapegoat. At RCR, Andy Petree was that scapegoat, but his track record probably was the reason his immediate departure was termed retirement rather than termination.

Neff: It is tough to say. Petree is incredibly level-headed and can steer a ship through some rough seas. Keith Rodden doesn’t have a long winning pedigree, but that doesn’t mean he can’t build fast racecars. It appears a change was needed in the competition department.

Stoddard: Well, given the current state of things at RCR, it is clear that something had to be shaken up. In a combined 39 starts (18 each for Busch and Dillon, two for Hill and one for Will Brown), RCR has tallied just two top fives and seven top 10s. Petree will still go out with a winning legacy, serving as crew chief for Dale Earnhardt’s final two Cup titles in 1993 and 1994.

Will Josh Berry win a race this season?

Neff: Yes. In my commentary last week, I picked him to win at Richmond Raceway. Short tracks are his best opportunity, and he finished second there in the spring of 2023 and 11th this year. His day is coming, for sure.

Nix: He will. He and Rodney Childers are clicking when it matters most. He almost won last week’s race at New Hampshire and has four top 10s in his last six starts. It’s looking more and more like Josh Berry and Childers, wherever they go next year, will go as a package deal, and the duo can back up that rumor by Berry winning his way into the playoffs. He is putting full races together, something he was not doing at the beginning of the year, and it’s realistic to assume he will keep improving, especially at tracks where he’ll be racing a second time. Pencil him for a win before the year is out.

Stoddard: Yes, and it will happen at a racetrack that holds special significance to the No. 4 team: Richmond. Fittingly, Berry will pick up his first career win at the site of Kevin Harvick’s final win to lock up a playoff spot and shake up the cutline. Berry turned heads with a runner-up finish at Richmond in 2023 as a substitute for Chase Elliott. He backed up that effort with an 11th-place showing earlier this season, collecting 11 stage points in the process. Berry has been among the best drivers at short tracks this season, and he will finally cash in at Richmond to get a feel-good win for Stewart-Haas Racing.

Kristl: While Childers and Berry have impressively turned heads in 2024, he will not win. There are so many talents in the Cup Series, including a good number who have not won yet this season. If there is one track where Berry could be an upset choice, it’d be at Michigan International Speedway. He has two Cup starts there, Childers has been very successful there with Harvick, and Berry has fourth, sixth and second-place finishes there in his Xfinity career. But I still would not bet on Berry to go to victory lane this season.

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How will Clint Bowyer perform in his NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Nashville Superspeedway?

Stoddard: Clint Bowyer will have a lot of rust to shake off, having not started a NASCAR race since his Cup retirement in 2020. Furthermore, Nashville marks his first Truck Series start since 2016. With that said, Bowyer is taking over a No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet that has been piloted to three victories already in 2024. Bowyer will also be reunited with Brian Pattie, the crew chief who oversaw Bowyer’s best Cup campaign in 2012, collecting three wins and finishing second in points. I expect Bowyer to finish anywhere between sixth and 10th, maybe even sneak into the top five if things break his way.

Kristl: Eighth. Bowyer will have a fast No. 7 Spire Chevy, but jumping in a truck and winning, competing against series regulars who have plenty of laps this year, will be incredibly difficult. Take Andres Perez’s Truck debut at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway. He finished ninth, and he races full time in the ARCA Menards Series. Therefore, Bowyer, who is far more experienced overall but has less laps this year, will finish one spot better in eighth.

Neff: Bowyer hasn’t been out of a car/truck too long. He won three races in 14 career Truck starts. Nine out of 14 ended in top fives. Expect to see him somewhere in the mid-top 10.

Nix: He will improve as the race progresses. While he’s plenty talented enough to run toward the front, he simply needs laps to reacclimate himself to the Truck Series. It’s his first Truck start in eight years and his first in any series since 2020. If he learns his truck through the first two stages, he can charge through the field and get a solid finish. He can — and will — score a top 10 if he plays his cards right and stays out of trouble.

Frontstretch.com

Mark Kristl joined Frontstretch at the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR season. He is the site's ARCA Menards Series editor. Kristl is also an Eagle Scout and a proud University of Dayton alum.

Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 as an iRacing contributor. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.

Kevin Nix

Kevin Nix has been with Frontstretch since February 2023. Hailing from Gilbert, Arizona, his dream is to be in the NASCAR media sphere full-time. He is a video assistant, working on the back end to streamline video and audio quality of all at-track interviews. Nix also writes about news every Monday for the site.

Nix graduated with a Master's Degree in Sports Journalism from ASU's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication in Phoenix, Arizona. He also has bachelor's degrees in Communications and Political Science. In his downtime, he likes to read, play video games and take walks in the Arizona weather - when it's not too hot.

Frontstretch.com

What is it that Mike Neff doesn’t do? The writer, radio contributor and racetrack announcer coordinates the site’s local short track coverage, hitting up Saturday Night Specials across the country while tracking the sport’s future racing stars. The writer for our signature Cup post-race column, Thinkin’ Out Loud (Mondays) also sits down with Cup crew chiefs to talk shop every Friday with Tech Talk. Mike announces several shows each year for the Good Guys Rod and Custom Association. He also pops up everywhere from PRN Pit Reporters and the Press Box with Alan Smothers to SIRIUS XM Radio. He has announced at tracks all over the Southeast, starting at Millbridge Speedway. He's also announced at East Lincoln Speedway, Concord Speedway, Tri-County Speedway, Caraway Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway.


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Echo

Put Kyle in bubba’s car and ask that question. Notice I didn’t even mention Gibbs or Hendrick cars. RCR has hit rock bottom and what kind of input do you think anyone at RCR gets from Dillon. I think Kyle has become so frustrated that he is just collecting a huge paycheck now. Why not, Richard doesn’t seem to care.

Bill B

There’s a good chance his next contract won’t be what he wants it to be monetarily,
BTW, I see what you did there. Pretending that 23X1 isn’t an extension of JGR.
LOL…good one!!!

Last edited 7 months ago by Bill B
Bill B

Well, theoretically Busch may not have hit rock bottom, he could go from a second tier team to a third tier team.

Carl D.

The problem with Kyle Busch is that he drives for RCR. They are clearly behind the other Chevy teams. It’s worth noting that the Fords were a step behind at the beginning of season when Busch was running well, but they’ve picked up the pace, concurrent with RCR’s decline. Gotta echo Echo’s point as well… “What kind of input do you think anyone at RCR gets from Dillon?”

Gonz

These rag writers are trash, KB hit rock bottom when he smashed his leg years ago. Today he has life by the balls, rich as F and a awesome family and has nothing invested in a race team. He is in his peak racing years just with a sub par team at the moment. That can change quick. He should be an all on favorite to win the next race.

Last edited 7 months ago by Gonz
DoninAjax

We’ve seen this before with Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip. They stayed too long and stopped getting the results they were used to.

TiminPayson

You really think KFB has stayed to long? Just think he picked the wrong team. Probably because his contract demand was unrealistic. Also if your ride isn’t with JGR, 23/11, Penske or Felony Racing Inc. your probably scrambling.

DoninAjax

He’s a lot closer to the end than the beginning and it is showing. During his whole career he has tried to go faster than the car is capable of.

Last edited 7 months ago by DoninAjax
TiminPayson

And that has netted him 200 plus wins over the three national series. Plus Super Late Model wins in some of the most competitive events in 1 offs.
I think the attention he is giving to his sons racing activities may be a distraction but I think RCR is the problem.

DoninAjax

And Hank Aaron has 1034 home runs including high school but only 755 in The Show!

Gordie Howe has 975 goals in the NHL and WHA. Wayne has 940.

Last edited 7 months ago by DoninAjax
Bill B

I don’t think there is any “maybe” about it.
His problem is 90% being on a second tier team.

MikeinAZ

I’d say so. It sure looking like Nashville will be a repeat of previous races lately. He’s 3 mph slower than the practice leaders right now so they obviously still haven’t found any speed in that car. There needs to be big changes on that team, no doubt.