1. Ross Chastain Might Be Remembering Who He Is at Just the Right Time
Ross Chastain did not win the most recent NASCAR Cup Series race on Sunday (Aug. 9). The fact that it took place at Iowa Speedway is mostly irrelevant for our purposes, as the preceding sentence has been true each race weekend since the 2025 Coca-Cola 600.
Since Chastain has won at least one Cup race each season since joining Trackhouse Racing in 2022, history suggests he’d find his way to victory lane before the end of this season. His performances through 20+ 2026 starts and the overall funk that Chevrolet teams have been in say something very different.
If there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for the Melon Man, it may have flickered on at Iowa. Chastain led 40 laps and earned stage points in every stage en route to a seventh-place result. He also passed the eye test, looking fast and confident like he hasn’t for most of the current campaign.
It’s too early to say Chastain and his No. 1 team have found consistency considering they headed to Iowa in the wake of consecutive finishes of 23rd or worse. They’re also clearly not at rock bottom anymore, though (that would have been after finishing 37th at Nashville Superspeedway), and three of Chastain’s five top 10s in 2026 have come in the last three races.
He’s still on the outside of the Chase field, but with three regular season races left, he finds himself 47 points behind Austin Cindric for the final spot. Chastain needs to make up 16 points a race, and there’s certainly no margin for error, but considering Cindric’s ceiling most weeks is in the low teens, there’s a window there for it to happen.
With all due respect to Ryan Preece, Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones, Chastain is the driver who feels like he could make a run, presuming Iowa wasn’t just a one-off good day. Plus we already know he will do anything to get the spots he needs in the final regular season race, should it come to that.
2. The King of Close But Not Quite Did It Again
While Chastain may be peaking when he needs it most, there’s little question that Christopher Bell is not. But man is he close.
Bell appeared to have a chance to win at Iowa, but he ultimately settled for second to teammate Ty Gibbs. If that sounds like a recurring theme for Bell this year, that’s because it definitely is: his runner-up finish was his fourth in the last five Cup races.
It’s worth remembering that some of these results came while Bell was driving with a fractured wrist, making them even more impressive.
It was also his seventh of 2026, tying Harry Gant in 1981 for the most in a winless season. Or it would, if Bell doesn’t win over the next three months.
One race in particular stands out: The Bristol Motor Speedway Night Race, where Bell is the defending champ. He also came home third last fall at Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and while that’s not quite as good as second, it’s enough to make you believe the best of Bell in 2026 is still to come.
3. Time is Running Out for Hendrick Motorsports to Be a Factor
Let’s keep with the theme of peak performance but flip it completely on its head. It’s been a bizarre sight at the top of the Cup Series standings week after week and noticing which team hasn’t had a big presence there: Hendrick Motorsports, ostensibly Chevrolet’s marquee team.
Chase Elliott was at least holding it down in the upper reaches of the points for a while, but his 15th at Iowa bumped him down to seventh in the standings. William Byron fared a little better, ending up ninth. Top 10, that’s more like it, right?
It is, except … that was Hendrick’s first top 10 since Chicagoland Speedway. To say that kind of drought is below the standard the organization has set is putting it mildly.
Despite Elliott’s two victories, there’s nothing that HMS has shown to provide even a shred of confidence that its cars can be championship contenders. Elliott, Kyle Larson and Byron are all going to make The Chase, but to have more than a hypothetical chance of competing for the title, something needs to change, and it needs to happen pretty quickly.
If it doesn’t, it’s fair to wonder what changes might happen in the Hendrick camp for 2027. Alex Bowman will be doing a farewell tour as he eases into retirement after next season, but it would be inconceivable for the other teams to stand pat after disappointment on this scale. That alone will make watching what happens between now and Homestead fascinating.
4. JGR’s Talent Pipeline Is Almost Comically Deep
Hendrick can only wish it had the problems that Joe Gibbs Racing has. Please note the sarcasm there, as even though some of its cars reported brake problems, the Gibbs gang pulled off a 1-2-5-6 finish at Iowa.
And sure, Denny Hamlin might retire soon. The team’s other three drivers are 31, 31 and 23 years old, so they probably aren’t calling it a career any time soon. If they leave for other reasons, JGR has William Sawalich and Taylor Gray in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series fold, both already confirmed to be back next season.
If neither of those drivers excites you, consider that an even hotter prospect, Brent Crews, is also in the fold. Should Hamlin decide to race a couple more years, the transition timing might work out perfectly for his ascension to the Cup Series.
This is all great for Gibbs, so the question is whether it might not be quite so beneficial for the rest of the sport. This is the premier organization in NASCAR at the moment (though Hendrick can vouch this can change quickly), one that can field competitive teams in multiple series while simultaneously assuring its future looks as bright as its present. That doesn’t leave much room for others to catch up.
The counterpoint would be that Sawalich and Gray are reportedly on one-year deals to return, so it’s not like JGR is locking these drivers up long term. The counter to the counter is that contracts like that give the organization the flexibility to snatch up even more young talent in 2028 if needed. In the end, it’s up to other race teams to find ways to battle dominance like this, which might mean fighting fire with fire over the next few seasons.
5. Still Too Early to Tell If New Stage Break Procedures Will Pay Off
One of the more interesting things to watch going into Iowa turned out to be a non-factor. A few days before the race, NASCAR announced a new stage-break procedure intended to avoid long cautions right before the end of a stage or the dreaded one-lap shootout before a guaranteed caution at a certain lap.
The initial reactions to the policy change were almost universally positive. The only problem at Iowa is that we didn’t see it in action, as there were no cautions within the final 10 laps of the first two stages.
Based on nothing more scientific than reading a lot of social media posts, my feeling is that most NASCAR fans would either like stage breaks to go away completely or points to be handed out at the designated lap without a caution. I feel equally confident that NASCAR’s broadcast partners really like those guaranteed ad breaks and are against those two options.
So what the stock car racing brain trust has come up with is probably the next best alternative. We’re just going to have to wait at least one more week to see if that’s true.
The new stage break procedures amount to a generic equivalent band-aid being applied to a sucking chest wound.
The broadcast partners can enjoy the stage breaks all they want. I won’t be watching those breaks, but they can enjoy them. I watched a few laps of this week’s race via the drivers cams on HBO Max, but that’s it.
Also, since NBC spun off USA to a new company, USA is not available via any streaming services. In the past, this would have prompted me to pay for a TV package to get access to NASCAR. No more. I may watch the last few races on NBC via OTA DVR, but then again, I may not. I love auto racing. I do not love scheduled cautions, which mean most of the laps run are nearly irrelevant.
40+ years as a NASCAR fan, but I’m largely over it. F1, IMSA, WEC, and even Indycar currently provide better racing, without stupid gimmicks like stage cautions. Hell, even old seasons of British Touring Cars on YouTube is more interesting than NASCAR as currently structured.
RE: Indycar. I have to say I was livid when they immediately threw the full course yellow at Portland for Rahal when he clearly kept the car running and was able to proceed on his own without assistance. I’m guessing that is a Fox directive, and I hope they stop it. There is generally a clear difference between when a driver is in danger and a full course caution is warranted vs when there is not. Since the Rossi thing (which WAS a bad situation), they have been over-reacting.
Still much better than what NASCAR is putting out.
Two cautions at the end of stages is not the problem. Stage cautions are the problem. Hope advertisers enjoy them. I watched a few laps of driver cams on HBO Max this week, and that’s it. 40+ years as a fan, but I’m over it. May watch the last few races of the year, may not.
Good job NASCAR, by making the majority of your laps run irrelevant, and good job TV networks for pushing to keep it that way. Plenty of other things to watch and do in life, most of which are more entertaining than watching cars circulate under scheduled yellow flags. Oh wait, not watching them circulate. Watching the scheduled commercials during the scheduled cautions.
I’m afraid I’m with you. I used to never miss watching a race or even better being there in person. Now I don’t even know where they are racing or which channel they are broadcast on. The sport stopped being fun for me a few years ago but I still watched on tv.