Fire on Fridays: There Is 1 Good Candidate To Replace Alex Bowman

It was announced by Hendrick Motorsports July 23 that Alex Bowman, the driver of the iconic No. 48 since Jimmie Johnson‘s full-time departure in 2020, will retire from full-time racing at the conclusion of the 2027 NASCAR Cup Series season.

Despite still having another full year and a half of racing left with the HMS organization, Bowman is already slated to leave behind an impressive legacy he built when he first began racing for the team in 2019, amassing eight victories, including four in 2021 alone, 49 top-five finishes and seven playoff appearances.

But as one door closes, another one opens, and while there are a number of candidates to consider, many experts agree the leading two are HMS’ full-time NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series driver Corey Day and Trackhouse Racing rookie Connor Zilisch.

Both certainly have strengths that help build a strong argument. However, there is little doubt that Zilisch’s accolades trump any other.

His 2025 NOAPS campaign alone led some to believe he would take over the No. 48 this season instead of going to Trackhouse. With an astonishing 10 victories in his rookie year that came on a wide variety of NASCAR tracks and a near-miss on the season title that one could chalk up as the result of an unfair points system, Zilisch was perhaps the most attractive NASCAR rookie prospect since Joey Logano.

Like Logano, however, Zilisch’s maiden Cup season has left much to be desired. With one top-10 finish and an average finish of 27.9 — the second-lowest of the entire full-time field — it has been a complete foil to his 2025 efforts.

Of course, few doubt Zilisch’s talent, seeing as how he stomped the NOAPS field a year earlier and has won international crown jewel races like the Rolex 24 and the 12 Hours of Sebring. In addition, there is no doubt his Trackhouse organization is struggling heavily this season, with its only wins coming from Shane van Gisbergen‘s two inevitable road-course victories. In other words, Zilisch’s struggles aren’t likely from any lack of racing talent but perhaps a lack of overall equipment quality. A forgivable lack of performance likely won’t prevent Hendrick from signing him.

Zilisch is currently under contract with Trackhouse for a multiyear agreement, meaning Hendrick will need to pay a contract buyout to put the young racer in his car by 2028, unless said contract ends after 2027.

Contract buyouts aren’t cheap, and what’s more, they may not even be necessary, given that HMS has a NOAPS prospect of its own.

Day was hand-picked by Kyle Larson out of the dirt-racing world and thrusted into the NOAPS ride. Since then, Day has put on some decent finishes, including two wins in 2026.

Like Zilisch, Day has already turned a few heads with a vast improvement over his part-time year in 2025, where he only earned one top five in 11 starts. It’s certainly nothing to scoff at, and with the regular season almost over, Day still sits fourth in the standings and may be within striking distance of the title once The Chase begins.

But despite his potentially high price tag, Zilisch just seems to be the more worthy candidate.

There are still 12 races left in the NOAPS season, but Day isn’t likely to gain eight more wins to match Zilisch’s performance in that timeframe. Furthermore, putting Day in the vastly different Next Gen car in 2028 fresh out of the O’Reilly Series runs the risk of him falling victim to exactly what is happening to Zilisch and so many other promising rookies before him: They simply aren’t fast.

HMS knows it, too. While Chase Elliott was decent in his rookie campaign with the team in 2016, he didn’t earn his first win until two years later. In 2018, William Byron was coming off a dominant NOAPS campaign and championship himself. His first win? Almost a three-season-long wait.

Really, since perhaps Denny Hamlin in 2006, no Cup rookie has broken out of the gate to race on the same level they did in the lower series, and it isn’t likely Day will be the one to break that mold. If anything, many expected Zilisch to have a win or two on the road courses, but that hasn’t come to fruition, either.

So, why would you even attempt to have Day when you have a Cup-seasoned prospect hitting that two-year Cup mark like Zilisch ready to go?

Keep in mind there is the wild card in all of this, too, that being perhaps the third driver being considered.

While it is unlikely, one could make some arguments for the likes of Carson Hocevar, a current Cup star, or someone from HMS’ usual talent pool of JR Motorsports drivers in NOAPS.

However, Hocevar seems plenty content in his role at Spire Motorsports and would also have the same dilemma as Zilisch with his contract situation. Not to mention, he’s not the most popular driver among those in the Cup garage, and we already know Rick Hendrick doesn’t like guys that are too aggressive.

As for JRM drivers, Justin Allgaier, while a seasoned NASCAR veteran, is likely eyeing a retirement in the coming years and probably isn’t looking to step away from the beatdown he’s giving the rest of the NOAPS field in his No. 7. Others, such as Sammy Smith, Rajah Caruth and Carson Kvapil, don’t seem ready to graduate from the series yet considering two of them are still chasing their first win and the other is still winless in 2026.

Indeed, it seems out of all of the prospects, Day and Zilisch are the most likely candidates, and in a fight between the two for the HMS role, Zilisch just seems to stand out when you turn on the tape.