“In Texas, we do things a little differently.” – Urban Cowboy
That’s right folks, it’s time for the NASCAR Cup Series to get down in the Lone Star State as they take on Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. So grab your boots and your best cowboy hat and get ready to put your money where your mouth is!
Coming off an emotional first win at Talladega Superspeedway, Carson Hocevar is sure to be more of a favorite, but I’d still lean toward the usual suspects. Winning your first race is hard enough, but winning your first two back-to-back? Unheard of.
I’m not saying he’s a bad selection, just not the winner this week. There’s also the chance of a major letdown, and I just can’t risk that.
Remember also, that Texas is an intermediate track. That means Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney should have all the speed there. You can’t go wrong with any of those guys.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: Talladega 1
| Right On The Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Hocevar to win +1400: $175.00 payout | Bubba Wallace: -25.8 points scored |
| Noah Gragson: 60.9 points scored | Brad Keselowski: -15 points scored |
| Daniel Suarez: 37.2 points scored | Reddick: 18.3 points scored |
Fantasy Forecast
Kyle Larson $10,500
Can you believe Larson hasn’t won yet this year? Yeah, me neither, and I thought he actually had a decent chance at Talladega prior to the big crash that took him out.
Now, we’re back in Yung Money’s wheelhouse with an intermediate track that he’s won on before.
There is a heavy, heavy question mark with him though, and that’s his Next Gen average finish. He has only managed a 16.25 average in that regard, far below teammate William Byron. I just don’t think Byron has the speed yet, but Chevrolet as a whole has gotten better as of late.
It just seems like we’re primed for another Larson win, despite his numbers. After all, he was fourth in this race last year and led the most laps that day.
Christopher Bell $10,000
I don’t feel like people are talking enough about how much Christopher Bell is struggling this season.
He’s had one top-10 finish in his last five starts, and he hasn’t had a top five since March 15th. But I think Texas is a perfect place for him to turn it around.
He’s usually an ace on intermediate tracks, and his 14.8 Next Gen average finish at Texas is fairly sporty. I think he’s a little expensive here at $10,000 but a must have.
Carson Hocevar $8,500
I rode the ‘Dente all the way to the bank last Sunday, and while I don’t think he’s going to go back-to-back, I think Hocevar is a threat here.
He now has two Craftsman Truck Series wins as of Friday night, and he’s got so much momentum on his side, I could definitely see him score a top-five finish here at Texas. He’s also shown modest improvement on intermediate tracks this season.
He was 22nd at Las Vegas, then 13th at Kansas. Those results should carry on into this weekend in the Lone Star State.
Chris Buescher $8,100
The pride of Prosper, Texas comes home again this weekend, looking for his first win in a really long time.
Chris Buescher was a top dog out in Talladega last week but didn’t have the support to take down Hocevar at the end of the day.
His career record at his home track is, well kind of bad. But I truly think he rides that momentum from Talladega into one hot summer for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing.
Corey Heim $6,700
It’s Heim Time boys and girls.
The phenom returns to the Cup Series for 23XI Racing this weekend and to a track he’s run really well at in the Craftsman Truck Series.
Listen, Corey Heim is not going to upset the field I don’t think, but the No. 67 will most likely grab you some top 20 points deep in the heart of Texas.
Todd Gilliland $5,400
Not only is the Todd father cheap, but he’s reliable like an old Ford Fiesta.
Todd Gilliland is a mixed bag on intermediates to be sure. He ran 17th at Kansas though, and he showed some decent speed. Meanwhile at Las Vegas, he brought it home 34th.
Again, he’s cheap, and I think he’s got some Talladega momentum in his back pocket.
Top Bets of the Week
Kyle Larson +650
Larson won the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race on Saturday, and it just cemented how I feel. I think this guy is due, and he’s gonna put it in victory lane for the first time in a while.
Chris Buescher +2000
I have no basis on this but a feeling. Buescher back at home? In the midst of a long winless streak? I just got a good feeling he’ll run well. I’m gonna put my money on Larson, but the pride of Prosper is a good bet too.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and a licensed Physical Therapist Assistant there.
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