Whatever your opinion is of Denny Hamlin, only a truly cold-hearted soul could have watched the conclusion to the final race of last season at Phoenix Raceway and not felt at least an iota of sympathy at the horrible way Hamlin ended up losing the title he has so long craved.
Even the most ardent of Hamlin haters must have had at least a fleeting moment of thinking “Wow, that’s a rough way to lose it.” At yet at the same time, no driver is owed a win, let alone a championship. Regardless of how that final race unfolded, last season’s champion is deservedly Kyle Larson. Doesn’t matter how many laps Denny led on the day, how big his lead in the waning laps or how unfortunate the final caution. Larson is, rightly, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.
But after coming so close, once again, could Hamlin rally himself in to try again in what has proved to be a two decade long elusive quest in 2026? And despite the litany of abject and tragic circumstances he faced in the off season, the answer seems, so far, to be a resounding yes.
Part of it, I think, is just the person and the driver he is. Hamlin is, by his own admission, the most competitive person he knows. In a parallel universe, post Phoenix last November, Hamlin pulls a Carl Edwards in 2016 move and unexpectedly walks away to focus on his 23XI Racing team.
But his drive, tenacity, will to win and, most importantly, loyalty to team principal Joe Gibbs and the whole JGR organization meant pulling those belts down tight and giving it another try (or two per his contract that runs through 2027) was the only real option he could choose. This isn’t a knock on Edwards, a deserved Hall of Famer and all round great human being, rather it’s testament to Hamlin’s rugged determination and strength of mind.
And while there is without question a long way to go this season, we saw an important sign as to Hamlin’s intentions last Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Hamlin opened the season with a wreck and a 31st-place finish in the Great American Race, then nursed another crash damaged car to a 13th-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway before finishing tenth at the Circuit of the Americas, almost a win for Hamlin on a road course. Last week in the desert, Hamlin finished a solid fifth, but never truly had the speed to challenge for a win
Which brings us to this past weekend.
In Sin City, the JGR vet led a race best 134 laps, including the last 49, and even had to make his way through the field from 31st after a speeding penalty following the conclusion of stage 1. In short, it was a dominant victory and the 61st of an illustrious career, good enough to give him sole possession of tenth place on the All-Time wins list – not to mention his 250th top-five effort (a 34% clip across his 726 career starts).
In his interview with Jamie Little on the start finish line Hamlin was candid about what it took to get back behind the wheel this year.
“I know it took a few weeks to feel like driving and over the last couple weeks
In the last few weeks, I’ve definitely regained my love of it and got refocused,” Hamlin said.
And that quote alone should give the rest of the field some pause.
But as ever with Hamlin, the question turns to whether or not he can finally secure that elusive championship. And while it is, admittedly, a small sample size, the data so far suggests he will certainly be in the hunt for a good starting spot in the playoffs. Data modelling suggests that for the best shot you need to start at least as the third seed when the 10-race playoff begins. If he continues to pick up strong finishes, he’ll be there or thereabouts.
Another advantage Hamlin has is that he’s experienced the ten race format. Only a handful of drivers can say the same: Joey Logano, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, Michael McDowell and Brad Keselowski, with the latter securing his to date only title under the old format (2012). The ten race Chase plays out very differently to the format we’ve used the past eleven years. That knowledge, and experience, will only help.
In addition, the line up of tracks in the final ten races really suits Hamlin. For a start he’s won at all of them and in some cases multiple times: Martinsville Speedway (6 wins), Darlington Raceway (5 wins), Kansas Speedway (4 wins), Bristol Motor Speedway (4 wins), Homestead-Miami Speedway (3 wins), Las Vegas Motor Speedway (3 wins), Talladega Superspeedway (2 wins), Phoenix Raceway (2 wins) and a win apiece at Charlotte Motor Speedway and World Wide Technology Raceway.
And the lack of a road course is even more of a bonus – turning left and right not typically being Hamlin’s forte.
But as I noted earlier, there is a long way to go and for now, Hamlin can focus on taking it one race at a time and maybe, just maybe, this will finally be his year.
Danny Peters has written for Frontstretch since 2006. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, he’s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.