The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is here. Cars will take to the track this weekend for the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium on Feb. 1, and the 68th running of the Daytona 500 is less than three weeks away.
Only two Cup drivers — Daniel Suarez and Connor Zilisch — are entering the season in new rides, but with the return of The Chase and the removal of the elimination championship format, there’s a lot to discuss as the Cup Series moves into the fifth season of the Next Gen era.
For 2026, Frontstretch staff voted on a top-30 ranking, taking into account each driver’s 2025 season as well as their outlook for 2026. With a first-place vote netting 30 points for a driver, the maximum score is 480. A second-place vote nets 29 points, a third-place vote 28 points, all the way down to a 30th-place vote that nets one point.
Below is where we landed. Click here for Nos. 30-21 and here for Nos. 10-1.
20. Josh Berry
Points: 189
2025 was a breakout year for Josh Berry, his first season driving for legendary Wood Brothers Racing in his second Cup season. Berry surprised the entire NASCAR world, taking the checkered flag at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the spring, earning himself a spot in the playoffs.
However, Berry struggled to earn solid results as the season progressed, only finishing inside the top five in two other races besides his Vegas triumph.
Despite finishing 2025 ranked last of the 16 playoff drivers after three consecutive last-place finishes cut his playoffs short, Berry improved his points position significantly, finishing 11 positions better than his rookie season with Stewart-Haas Racing. Additionally, Berry increased his average finishing position to 21.7, up slightly from a 22.7 in his first season.
One thing he needs to improve on during the 2026 season is finishing races. 2025 saw Berry record a total of nine DNFs, seven due to accidents. Berry showed at times last season that the cars his team brings to the track each week have speed, but circumstances have prevented him from recording solid finishes on raceday.
One of the concerns for Berry is that more often than not, he was in the wrong place at the wrong time and was being collected in accidents not of his own making, such as at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, when Berry spun in the early portion of the race after contact from Chase Elliott.
With crew chief Miles Stanley returning to call the shots for the No. 21 Ford, Berry and his team should be able to finish races without crashing, while also making a return to victory lane and a second straight appearance in NASCAR’s postseason. -Christopher Hansen
19. Austin Cindric
Points: 204
Drivers and fans alike have praised NASCAR’s old-but-new Chase format, but it may be met with less enthusiasm within Team Penske than in other organizations. While Ryan Blaney has already won a championship and Joey Logano is often seen as the poster child for the previous playoff format, that system also had a major impact on Austin Cindric, who tends to fly under the radar.
Out of the last four seasons, Cindric has made the playoffs in three of them and has earned three career wins. He won at Daytona International Speedway in 2022 and finished 12th in the standings, captured a victory at Gateway in 2024 and finished 11th, and took the checkered flag at Talladega Superspeedway in 2025 while finishing 14th. In 2023, he did not win a race and ended the season 24th in the standings. Historically, Cindric has relied on wins to secure playoff positioning, but that model is no longer in place this season.
Much of Cindric’s success stems from his strength as a driver, especially on superspeedways. He is widely regarded as one of the sport’s premier superspeedway racers, with Denny Hamlin even calling him “one of the greatest superspeedway racers we have” on his Actions Detrimental podcast following this year’s Daytona 500.
The challenge for Cindric is that his specialty comes on tracks that are inherently unpredictable, making it difficult to forecast his success in points. For example, he won at Talladega in April, but when he returned in October for the YellaWood 500, he qualified second and finished 34th.
If Cindric has to rely on avoiding the Big One and counting on superspeedway finishes for points, accumulating enough points to stay in postseason contention could be an uphill battle. His season has all the makings of a boom-or-bust ride. He could steal a big win, but consistently scoring enough points to be in the top 16 is far from guaranteed. -Steve Sonderman
18. Carson Hocevar
Points: 209
Carson Hocevar may be one of the biggest wildcards entering this season. After having an enigma of a 2025, from international scuffles with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to race-winning speed at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Nashville Superspeedway and Michigan International Speedway, Hocevar had a full box of chocolates this past year. A borderline Chase ranking feels accurate because you just don’t know what you’re going to get any given week.
Spire Motorsports as a whole has developed faster cars and been in contention more often with Hocevar and Michael McDowell on a week-to-week basis. However, its reliability has bitten Hocevar in particular, namely at the Coca-Cola 600 and the fall Daytona race where he still had a shot to make the postseason before losing an engine.
There’s absolutely a world where Hocevar earns his first win this season; he’s showcased that pace. His questions come from a racecraft perspective. We know what Hocevar is willing to do for a win, something that has bitten him in the past. Additionally, he has the backing of owner Jeff Dickerson, who has become more of a mentor to him.
This season, it’s about week-to-week consistency for the driver of the No. 77. For all of those good races last year, there were some equal-parts disaster-filled races, including Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, Sonoma Raceway and the Chicago street course. Those eight DNFs combined with only nine top 10s will each need to head in a better direction if Hocevar is to become a Chase contender in 2026. -Thomas Dunn
17. Connor Zilisch
Points: 212
Shane van Gisbergen may have some competition.
Connor Zilisch is perhaps one of the most anticipated rookies in recent NASCAR memory. The Trackhouse Racing prospect has already produced a racing resume that many racing veterans could only dream of acquiring. Some accolades include winning in his first career NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series start, an O’Reilly rookie of the year season that included 10 wins and a runner-up finish in the standings and, most recently, a runner-up finish in the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona.
By the way, he’s only 19 years old.
Though Zilisch took to oval racing quickly during his 2025 campaign, winning at five of them, there is no doubt his road course racing prowess will be his bread and butter and the site of early success. In fact, considering their numerous road course duels last year in O’Reilly, his biggest competition may be his own teammate and last year’s rookie of the year, van Gisbergen, who almost went entirely unchallenged on the Cup road races in 2025.
One of the few things that Zilisch doesn’t have going for him is his inexperience behind the wheel of the Next Gen car, something that has bitten many successful O’Reilly graduates in the last few years. However, Zilisch’s results have proven him as something of a prodigy, and while his three Cup starts last year didn’t result in any top 10s, he was one of the contenders for the win at Circuit of the Americas before being involved in a crash on lap 51.
If how quickly Zilisch was able to master oval racing in stock cars is any indication, perhaps the Next Gen won’t be as much of a challenge as it has been for other rookies. With a 16-car field still in play for the playoffs, the wunderkind will likely hover around the top 15 in points and see a playoff entry in his first year. -Dalton Hopkins
16. Brad Keselowski
Points: 216
It wasn’t enough to make the playoffs, but Brad Keselowski took an absolutely horrendous start to last year (33rd in points after 12 races) and rebounded quite nicely, finishing with six top fives and 13 top 10s in the final 24 races.
But 2025, like most of Keselowski’s RFK Racing tenure, was a year defined by its near misses. He had a dominant car at Iowa Speedway only to finish third, and he lost the lead on the final lap at both EchoPark Speedway in July and Phoenix Raceway in November. Throw in a third runner-up finish of the season at Bristol Motor Speedway in the summer, and Keselowski only has one win against nine second-place finishes in his four years at RFK.
The 2025 season was one to forget for RFK as a whole, as the three-car operation went winless for the first time since 2021 and failed to put a single driver in the playoffs. The good news for Keselowski and his teammates is that The Chase will play right into their strengths, as RFK does an exceptional job at putting together consistent results week in and week out, even if winning speed isn’t there. And if Keselowski can maintain the same level of performance for 2026 that he had in the last two-thirds of 2025, he has a strong chance of clinching a spot in The Chase and even snagging a win or two.
That, however, is a big if. Keselowski broke his femur after a skiing accident in December, and that’s by no means an easy injury to recover from. He’s sitting out the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium, and while he should be back in time for the Daytona 500, the question is whether he’ll be back without missing or beat or if it will take time to get back up to speed. -Stephen Stumpf
15. Ryan Preece
Points: 239
Arguably one of, if not the most improved driver of 2025, Ryan Preece heads into his second season with RFK as a top candidate among 10 drivers who are looking to score their first career Cup victory.
Much like some of the rides Preece has endured (looking at you, Daytona), his career had been topsy-turvy before landing a golden opportunity in a third entry for RFK last season.
Despite missing out on the playoffs, it was a career year by and large for Preece. His numbers included three top fives, 14 top 10s (one more than RFK co-owner Keselowski), a 15.7 average finish and an 18th-place final points ranking. A third-place finish in just the fifth race of the season at Vegas kickstarted the new pairing, and Preece concluded the year with four top 10s in the last five races.
Though there’s little change internally for Preece entering 2026, perhaps the most impactful difference that swings in his favor is the new Chase format, rewarding points and consistency. Had the series raced under the new championship format last season, Preece’s 14th-place regular-season spot would have landed him in the postseason.
The biggest area of improvement for Preece doesn’t necessarily hone in on the No. 60 team, but rather RFK as a whole. Despite consistency and strong runs, all three of the team’s drivers missed the playoffs, primarily due to the fact that they didn’t reach victory lane. But with the growing pains of expansion under the belt now, this is a team that still looks to be on the rise after an era full of famine during the Gen 6 tenure.
There were virtually no glaring weaknesses from Preece’s numbers last season, aside from the fact that he only qualified inside the top 10 on seven occasions. Even then, one of the Berlin, Conn., native’s strengths last season was improving throughout the race. With better qualifying performances, it could put Preece in an even better position to score stage points and, more notably, his first win.
It has been a storybook career thus for Preece, a journeyman who at times looked like he would have to explore other career options. Now, he is primed to reach victory lane and assert himself as one of the sport’s top contenders. -Luken Glover
14. Alex Bowman
Points: 275
It’s put up or shut up time.
Even though he’s shown that he’s a very good driver in the Cup Series, Alex Bowman hasn’t been the equal of his Hendrick Motorsports teammates over the past few years. He needs to step up his performance and win some races. Since it’s also the last year of his contract with Hendrick, Bowman needs to make himself look good in case HMS decides to drop him regardless of performance so he’ll be an attractive option as a free agent.
Last season, there was a fair amount of discussion around whether Bowman should be retained at Hendrick. He’s coming off a season where he finished 13th in points without a victory, six top fives and 16 top 10s.
On paper, that really isn’t that bad. In practice, it pales in comparison to his immediate competition. Kyle Larson won the championship with three wins. William Byron was fourth with three wins of his own. Elliott finished eighth with two victories. It was clear that he just wasn’t up to the level of the rest of the organization. Even in good seasons, that kind of situation is noticeable.
If Bowman doesn’t make The Chase this year, he’s going to be in big trouble. Add in the fact that Hendrick is building a deep bench in lower series and Bowman could be expendable if he doesn’t step up soon. -Phil Allaway
13. Shane van Gisbergen
Points: 296
Perhaps no Cup driver was more impacted by the championship format going back to The Chase than van Gisbergen.
Since bursting onto the scene with a victory in the 2023 Chicago street race, van Gisbergen has achieved a remarkable run of road-course success. The New Zealander enters 2026 riding a five-race winning streak on road courses. With one more checkered flag at Circuit of the Americas in March, van Gisbergen would tie Jeff Gordon for the road course wins in a row in series history. Van Gisbergen’s five wins bolstered him to a playoff berth, rookie of the year honors and the second-most wins on the season, trailing only Hamlin.
But with the restructuring of the championship format, being a road-course ringer may not be enough for the driver of the No. 97. Van Gisbergen will need to continue improving on ovals. In 30 oval starts in 2025, he accrued no wins, just one top 10 at Kansas Speedway, four top 15s and an average finish of 24.8. With the return of a Chase format that demands consistency, he will not be able to get away with posting these same numbers on ovals in 2026.
On the bright side, van Gisbergen displayed a noticeable upward trend in oval performance toward the end of 2025. Four of his five top-15 oval finishes came in the final 12 races of the season, including that Kansas top 10. He also had just one DNF on an oval in that same span, compared to three DNFs in the first 12 races of the campaign. Adding to the optimism is that, despite a new car number, van Gisbergen will have the same team behind him as 2025, led by crew chief Stephen Doran.
Van Gisbergen may have the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any driver on the grid in 2026. If he continues to dominate the road courses and couples that with solid consistency on ovals, he will not only make the Chase but could also be a fringe championship contender. If the rest of the field closes the gap on road courses and his oval struggles persist, the Kiwi will likely find himself on the outside looking in for the postseason. -Andrew Stoddard
12. Bubba Wallace
Points: 311
A lot of things changed for Bubba Wallace in 2025. While his team was embroiled in an impending court battle, Wallace was adjusting to life as a father off the track and having the best season of his career on it.
It culminated in the crowning achievement of his NASCAR career, a win in the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway that ended a 100-race winless drought and made headlines across the country.
The ugly truth, however, is Wallace probably should have come away from 2025 with even more trophies to his name.
At Homestead Motor Speedway in March, he led 56 laps but couldn’t hold off Hendrick duo Bowman and Larson. He led 123 laps at Richmond Raceway in August, but a loose tire on a pit stop relegated him to 28th. Wallace and car owner Hamlin went into the final set of turns at Kansas in September side-by-side for the lead, but neither wound up taking the checkered flag.
Wallace’s 2025 was still a career year. He matched his 2024 stats in top fives (six) and top 10s (14) while leading nearly three times as many laps. The pairing with crew chief Charles Denike seemed destined for success after winning their Daytona Duel in February.
But what really felt like the difference maker in his success was a more laid-back approach. Even in the face of defeat, Wallace looked at the glass as half full rather than half empty. The attitude change creates two possible paths for the 32-year-old in 2026. He could keep building off of his success and continue to rise up the ranks. It’s just as easy to see Wallace plateau, staying where he’s at as a playoff contender at best if his inconsistency remains an issue. -James Krause
11. Chris Buescher
Points: 314
Chris Buescher is having a wildly successful offseason. That can be said without knowing exactly what he has been up to, because the switch to the Chase format alone is reason enough for him to celebrate.
Buescher was one of the drivers most negatively affected by the previous playoff format. He finished 17th in points in both 2024 and 2025, just outside the cut line for the 16-driver playoff. The win-and-you’re-in system worked against him, as victories by Harrison Burton in 2024 and Austin Dillon in 2025 knocked Buescher out of the postseason despite him scoring more regular-season points than both drivers. His only win over the last two seasons, a thrilling victory over van Gisbergen at Watkins Glen International in 2024, had no impact on his final points position, as it came during the Round of 16 after he had already been eliminated.
Although it is not the 36-race season-long format that he told Frontstretch in September has “always been my vote,” Buescher should head into 2026 optimistic about the future. The statistics are on his side. Over the last two seasons, Buescher has ranked among the top 10 drivers in lead-lap finishes. He recorded 15 top 10s in 2024 and 16 in 2025.
Another reason to be bullish on Buescher in 2026 is his diverse skill set as a driver. Regardless of track type, he has shown the ability to run up front. That versatility was highlighted after his 2024 win at Watkins Glen, when Buescher became just the third driver of the Next Gen era, joining Byron and Christopher Bell, to win on four different track types.
As NASCAR’s current Mr. Consistency, he is projected to be one of the 16 drivers to qualify for The Chase. Fans of the No. 17 can enter the season with confidence, knowing that if Buescher maintains his steady performance, he is poised to turn consistency into results. -Sonderman
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Find Stephen on Twitter @stephen_stumpf
James Krause joined Frontstretch in March 2024 as a contributor. Krause was born and raised in Illinois and graduated from Northern Illinois University. He currently works in Fort Wayne, Indiana covering minor league, college and high school sports. Outside of racing, Krause loves to keep up with football, music, anime and video games.
Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 as an iRacing contributor. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.
Dalton Hopkins began writing for Frontstretch in April 2021. Currently, he is the lead writer for the weekly Thinkin' Out Loud column, co-host of the Frontstretch Happy Hour podcast, and one of our lead reporters. Beforehand, he wrote for IMSA shortly after graduating from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in 2019. Simultaneously, he also serves as a Captain in the US Army.
Follow Dalton on Twitter @PitLaneCPT
Thomas is in his second year covering NASCAR at Frontstretch. A Bay Area NASCAR fan for over 15+ years, he found his love for the sport through Jeff Gordon. He helps manage the 2-Headed Monster Column.
Thomas has enjoyed several trips to Sonoma Raceway in his time and currently covers college athletics in the Bay Area, writing about the California Golden Bears and doing play by play broadcasting.
Luken Glover joined the Frontstretch team in 2020 as a news writer before elevating to a columnist, where he served as the longtime writer for The Underdog House. Currently, he is an editor for the site and conducts feature interviews. Glover has covered several forms of racing for the site including NASCAR, CARS Tour, and SRX events.
A 2023 graduate of the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is a promotional writer, elementary athletic director, and basketball coach. He is passionate about serving in his church, playing/coaching a wide variety of sports, and researching motorsports history.
Bowman is such an interesting story, and I’d guess was arguably the hardest to place in these rankings.
He shows moments of speed matching or exceeding his teammates. He shows moments of being completely in left field.
Possibly my memory is failing me here, but it seemed he had more than his fair share of bad luck last year. If his luck regresses to the mean, I’d guess he winds up somewhere in the 8-10 range in points after the “regular season”. (“Regular season” remains a dumb concept, but I digress.)
Just looked it up. Appears he had 10 finishes of 28th or worse in 2025, of which I believe the vast majority were due to damage/mechanical issues. Sure, some in there were due to driver error, but I don’t recall him consistently stuffing his car in the wall.
Still, given he hasn’t shown the ability to consistently match his teammates, if he’s again last amongst the Hendrick drivers, I’d guess he will be voted of the island.