There’s a parallel universe out there where Denny Hamlin is the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion and Joe Gibbs Racing is celebrating its sixth drivers’ championship at the Cup level.
A Hamlin championship was that close to becoming reality at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 2, and if William Byron’s tire stays up for another 40 seconds, the story is that JGR ended its best season since 2019 on top and that its longest-tenured driver finally earned the crowning achievement of his career.
But that’s not real life. Instead, the 2025 season ended with a loss so crushing that all of the wind has been taken out of JGR’s sails.
The 13 races JGR won in 2025 are an afterthought. Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe setting career highs for wins in a season is an afterthought. Hamlin’s six-victory season at the age of 44 with new crew chief Chris Gayle is, once again, an afterthought.
If winning cures all, losing, especially in the way the No. 11 team did, creates cracks in the foundation.
What isn’t an afterthought this offseason is the championship-losing decision, even though hindsight is 20/20, for Hamlin to take four tires in overtime instead of taking two or staying out.
All that season-long success for the entire organization, only for the feel-good energy to get wiped out in a span of 10 minutes.
The ending to Phoenix also brings some of the other JGR miscues back into the public conscience, like the fact that tempers got so heated between Ty Gibbs and Hamlin over the former’s racing of the latter at New Hampshire Motor Speedway that Hamlin sent his teammate (the team owner’s grandson, no less) spinning into turn 1.
That situation was defused at least in the public eye, and the two never had any on-track feuds the rest of the year. But racecar drivers have the minds of elephants, and even if Hamlin and Gibbs have settled their differences from New Hampshire, what went down that Sunday is a moment that neither driver will ever forget.
Speaking of Gibbs, he’s certainly feeling the pressure to pick up the pace. The 2022 NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series champion is winless in his first 123 Cup starts, and he regressed in year three, recording a worse average finish and scoring fewer top fives, top 10s and laps led than he did in year two.
His 2025 struggles were all the more glaring when he was the only JGR driver to go winless and miss the playoffs, and while he had a couple of winning chances at road courses and Bristol Motor Speedway this year, he’s still trailing teammates and falling short of the expectations that many had pegged him for.
The No. 54 team’s struggles came to a head in the summer when Chris Gabehart, in his first year as director of competition at JGR, was back on the pit box and assisting Gibbs. Not every moment between the two was rosy, and the conversation between the two got heated on occasion, most notably at Watkins Glen International in August.
And it’s Gabehart who serves as the most perplexing puzzle piece to JGR’s 2026 offseason. He won 23 races as Hamlin’s crew chief between 2019 and 2024, and while it was surprising to see him get moved to competition director a year ago, the decision turned out to be a great one for the organization as a whole.
Except for the fact that Gabehart, arguably JGR’s greatest asset on the pit box and in the garage, appears to be out the door after one year in his new role.
Gabehart’s departure has yet to be officially confirmed by either side, but Hamlin’s non-answer is damning. And if it’s true, what in the world happened? Did he get an offer from another team he couldn’t refuse? Did the relationship deteriorate behind the scenes?
It’s one of many questions, assuming that it’s made official, that JGR faces heading into the 2026 season.
The only team sitting pretty heading into 2026 is the No. 19, even though it didn’t win the title, as Briscoe and crew chief James Small more than exceeded expectations in year one.
On the flipside, Gibbs desperately needs a win to silence the increasing noise surrounding him and the No. 54 team. Bell and crew chief Adam Stevens need to reestablish themselves as serious title threats after getting bounced from the Round of 8 at Martinsville Speedway in disappointing fashion for the second consecutive year.
Hamlin, Gayle and the No. 11 crew need to find ways to move on and thrive in this post-Phoenix reality. There are special teams all across sports that have the willpower and mental fortitude to return with a vengeance after a crushing defeat, and there are others that get psychologically broken beyond repair and never again reach the heights they were once capable of achieving.
As for JGR itself, it needs to figure out its identity for 2026 and beyond. It would be a devastating blow if Gabehart was gone, and the central leadership of the team would be clouded in uncertainty. JGR also needs to figure out its plan and a successor for a post-Hamlin world, as indications point to 2027 as his last full-time season.
For a team that enjoyed its greatest success in more than a half decade, this offseason feels like anything but. And there are countless hurdles that JGR has to jump through, starting with this offseason, if it has any hope of matching or surpassing the heights its reached in 2025 for 2026 and beyond.
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Find Stephen on Twitter @stephen_stumpf
Gabehart is not the first person to leave JGR because of the overemphasis on young Ty. This must be driving Joe crazy. Although Heather appears to be up to the management task, and JGR has made some front office hires to assist with weaknesses, the addition of Ty still appears to have adversely affected the team.
Perhaps Ty needs a sports (or other) psychologist. I mean the kid lost his father at a young age, under horrible timing, and then gets a ride that can win in Cup and he isn’t measuring up to anyone’s, including his own, expectations.
I’m neither a Gibbs nor a Toyota fan, but this looks like a very relatable human problem. I hope they can sort it out.
Instead of a sports psychologist, I think Ty needs a right hook to his jaw. But then again, every time someone wants to have a “discussion” with Ty, he cowardly keeps his helmet on and has some Gibbs goons behind him to protect him in case things get rough.
Wow, I hope someone has the entire organization on su!c!de watch. So sad that their lives are over and no hope of any future.
Good one!!!
agree with DA below… as long as any Gibbs is in charge Ty will skate by
With Mommy as heir apparent it could be that way for a long time to come. Also recall some of Truex’s comments regarding how the team dynamic changed as soon as he got to Cup (I cleaned that up a lot).
Unless or until Ty Gibbs looks in the mirror and admits to himself he is the problem, he will continue to struggle. He showed speed in BuschXfinOreiWide, and has technical skill on road courses, which indicates he might be able to figure it out.
But, every vibe I get from Ty is he’s not interested in looking inside. He’d rather blame his crew chief, the rules, his teammates, God, a bug splat on his windshield, the taco he ate last night, anything but admitting the fault lies between the seat and the steering wheel.
I have to guess Monster is getting fed up as well. Constantly bringing up God every chance Ty gets, then acting as a spoiled child inside and outside the car, all while being generally the slowest driver on his team, is not a good look. No problem with someone invoking God. Every problem with someone seemingly doing it because of the optics, then acting like they have no interest in the tenets of the religion.
Sponsors will often overlook attitude if the results are there. Sponsors will sometimes overlook results if the personality is there. But when neither are there, sponsors tend to correctly question whether their sponsorship dollars are generating net profits for the company. I just can’t imagine anyone being more apt to buy Monster products based on Ty Gibbs driving their car.
As long as a member of the Gibbs family is in charge there will always be a seat for Ty. Kind of like the Dillons with Childress..