May is nearly over. Just a few days remain, but the ultimate event tied to this glorious month — the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500 — officially concluded over Memorial Day weekend.
And as Back Home Again in Indiana fades and the milk dries on Victory Lane until next year when another cold bottle is opened, one truth is clear:
The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season is stuck in a time loop.
Alex Palou keeps winning. After grabbing the one victory that has raised his legacy to all-time great status, he has now taken four of the last five races. He’s in control of both the championship and of every paddock conversation and owns premium real estate space in every victory lane on the circuit.
His team has executed flawlessly. He’s driving better than anyone else in the field. But now comes Detroit, and the 3-year-old, 100-lap 1.645-mile downtown circuit has not been about perfection.
It’s about survival.
Last Year: Embrace the Chaos
Since its 2023 debut, the new downtown Detroit layout has earned a reputation for unpredictability and outright madness. Chaos isn’t a minor detail either—it’s the storyline. And for all of Palou’s dominance, his Honda power won’t be immune to the shadow cast down by General Motors’ Renaissance Center.
He won this race in its inaugural year, yes. But last year? He had one of his worst finishes of the season in 19th. Meanwhile, his teammate Scott Dixon claimed victory, making two stops compared to many who made four or five.
The 2024 edition was a caution-heavy mess due to the incident-prone nature of the circuit as well as rain that required changing over from slick to wet tires. By the checkered flag, 47 of the 100 laps were run under yellow. Even the rolling engine of consistency Palou was caught up in one of the frays, hitting Josef Newgarden in turn 3.
Colton Herta started from pole and had the early advantage, but the rain threw his strategy off.
If the Indy 500 is a motorsports boxing match at high speed, then Detroit is a hole-in-the-wall bar fight.
Turn 3
The tricky part of the circuit is turn 3, which is at the end of the straight where the race actually starts, similar to Mid-Ohio. It’s a hairpin and, while it’s wide, is at the end of the fastest part of the track.
Four of the eight cautions were for incidents in that section last year.
The Real Fight is for Second
Let’s be honest — Palou is running away with this championship.
This season reminds me of the 2000 Indy 500, when Juan Pablo Montoya led 167 laps and crushed the field. The real drama that day wasn’t for the win, it was the furious battle for second. That’s what this title chase is shaping up to be.
Palou is so far ahead that he could’ve taken Dixon’s post-race vacation offer from the Indy 500 banquet, chilled on a beach for four weeks, and still returned as the points leader.
So, who finishes behind him?
It’s all we’ve got to watch while the Spaniard motors on ahead of everybody. And no, finishing second in the championship doesn’t usually end up on highlight reels. Quick! Name the runner-up in the standings the last 10 years without asking Siri or Alexa!
But for Pato O’Ward, Christian Lundgaard and Kyle Kirkwood, they have been entangled to hold on to the runner-up spot, which in theory would then provide a platform to chase down Palou. The problem is they can’t stay consistent enough to keep the spot.
After the Indy 500, O’Ward leapt to second, while Kirkwood faltered after the post-race penalty took his sixth-place finish away.
Lundgaard’s seventh at Indy will help him as he hits some road and street circuits coming up, his expertise. Kirkwood’s wins are all on temporary tracks and he finished fourth a year ago at Detroit. Meanwhile, O’Ward, while fast, can be tempted to attack too much on the tight roads, and that can cause incidents.
If any of them want to stay in second in the points, though, they will have to hope luck is on their side to get through the battle in Detroit.
Redemption Time
No one needs a bounce-back more than Kirkwood and Marcus Ericsson.
Both were hit hard by post-race penalties after the Indy 500. Kirkwood fell from sixth to 32nd. Ericsson lost a potential podium and that second-place prize money.
Detroit offers them a shot at redemption.
Ericsson has won in the city before, but back on Belle Isle, and was a runner-up last year. Kirkwood’s track record on street courses speaks for itself. A win would be ideal, but more than anything, they need clean, solid results to erase the bitter taste left behind in Indianapolis.
Team Penske’s Home Track
The Detroit race is a Penske Entertainment event, in the city that the namesake Roger Penske calls home. Outside of Indianapolis, if there is one race to win, it’s this one for the team.
Not a bad time to do it either, after a disastrous and controversial May. All three drivers — Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin and Will Power — will run with the same race strategists they had at Indy.
Looking back, McLaughlin will hopefully be the one to find a good run after crashing out on the parade laps at the Brickyard. Newgarden had the Captain’s best result in hand before a fuel pressure issue knocked him out. Power just never seemed to get his car to his liking.
Two races in a row like that isn’t likely.
What Else?
Three drivers have five or more top 10s this year. Of course, Palou is one (a second at Long Beach and wins everywhere else), Lundgaard, and can you guess the other? Felix Rosenqvist. He’s had three straight top 10s at Detroit, with a third in 2023.
David Malukas second at Indy was a career-tying best for him, but he hasn’t run as well at street circuits. Tenth in 2010 at St. Petersburg is his only top 10.
PREMA Racing left Indy with a pole, a penalty for their 12th-place car driven by Callum Ilott, and an injured crew member. The season’s grind starts this weekend, and a good result at Detroit can show that Indy was no one-trick pony.
Frontstretch Predictions
The Indy 500 qualifying predictions were bad. I was so far off, I would have been better off finding Biff Tannen and asking if he knew the results.
This week is easier: we get back on the Palou train. Pick him until he DNFs.
The rest of the field is tough because of attrition and mayhem. Lundgaard being a podium finisher feels right just because that’s what he has done all year on these tracks. The other would be a toss-up between the two Andretti cars that were penalized and need good results. Let’s see what I pick.
- Palou — another win. Shocking I know.
- Kirkwood — he is great at these temporary circuits, and so is his team.
- Lundgaard — he holds onto second in points but doesn’t make up any ground.
The 100-lap Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix gets underway Sunday, June 1, at 12:30 p.m. ET on Fox.
Tom is an IndyCar writer at Frontstretch, joining in March 2023. Besides writing the IndyCar Previews and frequent editions of Inside IndyCar, he will hop on as a fill-in guest on the Open Wheel podcast The Pit Straight. A native Hoosier, he calls Fort Wayne home. Follow Tom on Twitter @TomBlackburn42.