Break out the cowboy hats, your best pair of boots, and crank the George Strait up as loud as you can stand it. The NASCAR Cup Series is back in the Lone Star State this weekend for another 400 mile duel.
Texas Motor Speedway plays the host this time, and it should be another fun week of fantasy racing and betting. Being an intermediate track, there should be a fair amount of familiar faces on your roster.
It does benefit you to keep in mind though, that Josh Berry won earlier this season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Underdogs have a better chance on this type of track than they ever have, so finding the right blend will be completely essential.
Pay particular attention to the recent statistics here too. Texas having only one date nowadays makes for a shorter notebook, so the drivers who have been good here lately are must-haves.
With all that said, let’s take a look at how I fared at Talladega Superspeedway last week. My hot streak ended with a thud, as my hopes at making money died the moment Ryan Blaney snapped around after smashing into Brad Keselowski early. I did, however, have the winner on my roster and some good finishes out of the guys I signed on the fantasy side of things.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Jack Links 500
Right On The Money | Lick Your Wounds |
Austin Cindric, race winner, 53.2 points scored | Ryan Blaney (+1000) to win: finished last after a crash |
Carson Hocevar, 61.4 points scored | Toyota (+270) to win |
William Byron, 57.2 points scored | Tyler Reddick (+320) to win Group C |
2025 DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.
Tyler Reddick ($10,200)
I struck out a bit with Reddick last week, but I have strong faith in the No. 45 this week.
A former winner here, he boasts a career average finish of 9.3, which is more than solid. While he didn’t run very well at Las Vegas earlier this season, he was pretty good at Homestead-Miami Speedway a few weeks ago.
23XI has a history of running well at this type of track too, and if they hit the balance right of the truck this weekend, they’ll be in Victory Lane.
Reddick is due for a win, and I believe it absolutely comes in this race.
Chase Elliott ($9,000)
The former champion returns to the site of his last and only win in the last two seasons so far. Perhaps it’s not a moment too soon.
There are serious question marks when it comes to this driver and team, because while they’ve been so consistent throughout this year, they’ve only really been contenders for a win a couple of times. As I always say, nothing cures all ills like a win, and this group needs one.
I don’t have enough faith to say he’s going to win this Sunday, but I do feel that he’ll at least be hanging around the top five or 10 all day. It’s not what they need, but it’ll be another good building block toward getting a win.
Alex Bowman ($8,400)
On the flip side of Elliott’s situation, the No. 48 seems closer than ever to breaking through.
Bowman was really good at Bristol Motor Speedway before his engine expired and he had a pretty good run at Talladega. Those two tracks are not known as his best, so it stands to reason he’ll be surprisingly competitive at Texas.
A win isn’t in the cards yet, I don’t think that’ll come until later this summer. If he can stay out of trouble, and the car holds on, Bowman should be in the top 10-15 range with some points for owners to bank on.
Ty Gibbs ($8,000)
Gibbs’ 2025 season is on that needs to be studied. He had a miserable end to 2024 and a miserable start to this season, but lately he looks like a dark horse playoff contender.
He was up front late at Talladega, had a podium finish at Bristol and dare I say it, he’s on a roll. Intermediates have been a bit of a problem for this group though.
Gibbs hasn’t been able to finish inside the top 20 at any of those events this season, but has a pretty good Xfinity Series resume here.
I look for this team to continue to make gains and improve, finishing anywhere between the top 10-20 positions.
Carson Hocevar ($7,400)
Could it be another big breakout race for the most interesting man in the garage area?
I definitely think so. He was definitely a contender these last couple of weeks, with a strong showing at Bristol in which he very easily could’ve finished in the top five, and he had plenty of speed at Talladega.
If this team can avoid mistakes on pit road and mechanical woes, they’ll score points with a sneaky top 10.
Ryan Preece ($7,000)
Let me tell you this my fellow bettors and fantasy players: Preece is going to win a race, and he’s going to do it very, very soon.
A vacated second-place finish at Talladega will only make this team more desperate to get that win, and he’s been super efficient on intermediates all season. I don’t know if it’ll come at Texas, but one thing is for sure: Someone is going to pick him and cash in, so it might as well be you.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Reddick (+700) to win: I’m a little shaky on this pick, but I’m going to stand by it. There’s been some hiccups along the way as far as consistency, but it just seems like it’s a good time for Reddick to start hitting his stride. The good record at Texas is just the icing on the cake.
2. Preece to be the top finishing Ford (+1400): Like I said, Preece is going to win soon, it’s just a matter of time. He’s probably going to get it before Gibbs gets his first and before Elliott gets his next to be honest. I like the odds here and this is fun low risk, super high reward wager if he ends up second instead.
3. Bowman (+350) to win group C: I like this one wager because he’s grouped with Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Bubba Wallace. Elliott doesn’t look ready to win again yet, KFB is consistently inconsistent, and so too is Wallace. I believe the hardest one for him to beat will be Elliott, but he’s looked faster than his teammate plenty of times this year.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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