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Friday Faceoff: Who Will Be Eliminated From the Cup Playoffs?

Which four NASCAR Cup Series drivers will be eliminated from the playoffs after the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL?

Chase Folsom: The four currently on the outside will stay on the outside, those being Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe. Nothing against those guys, but the two ahead of them, Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick, just so happen to be two of the best road course aces in the field. I simply do not see an opportunity for those guys to make up enough points. Not to mention, AJ Allmendinger and Shane van Gisbergen will make a walkoff win for those four significantly harder to come by. Yes, the ROVAL can get crazy, but I’ll put my money on no changes at the bottom.

Joy Tomlinson: Suarez, Briscoe, Cindric and … Logano? Suarez and Cindric don’t have any top 10s and Briscoe has just one, so they’re pretty unlikely to get above the cut line unless something happened to one of the other playoff drivers. Last year, Logano and Ryan Blaney didn’t earn any stage points, but Logano finished in the top 10. In fact, all but one of Logano’s results were top-10 finishes. But if he doesn’t go for stage points on Sunday, I don’t think he’ll be able to bump out Elliott or Reddick (or any other) out of the top eight.

Dan Greene: Blaney has to be a bit worried as the last Ford currently in the top eight. Like Talladega Superspeedway, strange things happen at the ROVAL, and the reconfiguration is an unknown variable. Suarez has a great run and Ford gets knocked out of the playoffs entirely. Let the manufacturer orders theories continue.

Kevin Nix: The four currently on the outside looking in will be the four eliminated: Logano, Cindric, Suarez and Briscoe. Every driver ahead of them in the standings has shown (at minimum) stretches of brilliance this season, and the two drivers closest to them, Elliott and Reddick, are strong threats to win at the ROVAL. I don’t see either of them collapsing in the race, and the likelihood of a non-playoff winner is high. Not enough will change on race day.

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Will the crew chief change at Legacy Motor Club help its drivers?

Tomlinson: I’m not sure what will help Legacy. Erik Jones had that win at Darlington Raceway a couple of years ago, and it looked like things were on the right track for him and his team. Then Jimmie Johnson came in, and then Toyota and the teams only had two top fives and 12 top 10s in 2023-2024. John Hunter Nemechek‘s been on a very rough patch since Nashville Superspeedway, with just one result in the top 20, a 15th at Daytona International Speedway. Jones, meanwhile, has one top five (at Talladega) and four top 20s in that same span. It’s still not great.

Nix: No. The organization as a whole more or less started from scratch after it switched to Toyota last offseason, and it simply needs more time to get better. Best-case scenario, the final five races of this season are viewed as a test run for 2025. Both Jones and Nemechek are working with their new crew chiefs for the first time, and it is difficult to establish rapport in such a short time. Legacy needs to be more patient in its process for next year and beyond, and it’s simply not doing that.

Folsom: Eh, I doubt it. Based on their performance this year, Legacy needs far more help than just a crew chief change. It was late summer in 2023 when we saw this team come back to life with Carson Hocevar and Jones, and that turnaround simply hasn’t materialized in 2024. So far, the move to Toyota has been a disastrous one for Legacy, and it’ll take some wholesale offseason changes for the team to get back on track.

Greene: Jones is 30th in points Nemechek is 34th. Legacy has nothing to lose, so why not? Clearly it still hasn’t found the formula for success.

Since the Olympic break, no organization has won twice in the Cup Series. To what do you attribute this trend?

Nix: Chaos. Most races since the Olympic break have been either crapshoots or chaotic, and those two factors greatly increase the odds of unlikely winners. It feels like we throw every driver into a random number generator each week and let random.org spit out the number that’s going to win. The only race that showcased dominance from start to finish was Kyle Larson‘s win at Bristol Motor Speedway, and that performance brought about an entirely different set of problems. While I expect the ROVAL to be chaotic as usual, I’d be floored if a new organization won (such as Kaulig Racing).

Folsom: Parity. The thing NASCAR so desperately wanted with this Next Gen car, it is getting. While I don’t necessarily agree with the concept, nor do I think it is good for the sport, NASCAR wants all the teams on an even playing field, and this is a result of that. When the cars are all manufactured at the same place, by the same people, and only microscopic adjustments are allowed in the rules, this is the result you will receive.

Greene: When races are decided by tenths of a second, the last laps are anyone’s guess. Add in the fact that you never know if the final laps of the race are the final laps and you might as well get out a magic 8-ball. Eighteen winners in 31 races. If not a magic 8-ball, maybe a Ouija board can predict the winner?

Tomlinson: Part of it could be the type of tracks in that span. The Cup Series has visited Daytona, Atlanta Motor Speedway and Talladega — three pack-racing tracks — as well as Watkins Glen International. Still, it is rather unusual to see this much parity among organizations. The Next Gen car has seen parity each year it’s been around. In 2023 there were 15 different winners, and in ’22 there were 19. The combination of track type and this car throughout the years is what makes a perfect storm for the variety of victors we’ve seen the past couple of months.

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No full-time ARCA Menards Series drivers won a race this season. Is that concerning for the series?

Greene: It’s difficult to maintain interest in a series when the regulars in the field are few in number and don’t seem to matter. Why invest the time and effort to run the whole schedule when the part-timers can concentrate all their resources on a few races and win?

Nix: Yes, as it shows ARCA is no longer a good indicator of talent. The CARS Tour has taken its place for homegrown racers to thrive, as that’s where recent drivers such as Carson Kvapil, Christian Eckes, Layne Riggs and Josh Berry got their starts, just to name a few. More teams need to field ARCA cars for this trend to change. I’d like to see Hendrick Motorsports, RFK Racing and TRICON Garage dip down full time, as all three organizations have talent who can use the laps to improve. Stronger teams need to be on the grid for full-time ARCA drivers to win, and not just at Daytona or Talladega. Someone get David Gilliland on the phone!

Tomlinson: In a way it is, but it’s more to do with the amount of part-timers that compete in the series. Also, William Sawalich and Connor Zilisch are super talented and ran with better equipment than the full-timers. In the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, Matt Crafton won the 2019 championship without winning a race. The points system is different, but it still is comparable as both series have had drivers who aren’t full time win races.

Folsom: Yes, it is very concerning for ARCA that its full-time drivers are essentially non-factors at times. When a series regional subsidiary is a more competitive, entertaining and intriguing racing product than the series itself, something is structurally wrong with the series.

About the author

Frontstretch.com

Mark Kristl joined Frontstretch at the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR season. He is the site's ARCA Menards Series editor. Kristl is also an Eagle Scout and a proud University of Dayton alum.

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Hamlin could blow up on the first lap or LaJoie could take him out. It’s just another crapshoot. Id laugh if Goodyear brought a blow up tire that created chaos.