Friday Faceoff: Who Will Be Eliminated in the Round of 16?

Who won’t advance to the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 12?

Luken Glover: I’m fully prepared to come back to this and see how poorly my picks aged, but that’s part of the fun. Harrison Burton shouldn’t be completely ruled out given that the playoffs start on a drafting track, but if he doesn’t cash in, he is very likely on his way to a quick exit. And while Austin Cindric has a little more stability by running more consistently as of late, the pace just isn’t there for him to be a sleeper. This pick should not be as surprising given his recent results, but Martin Truex Jr.‘s momentum is completely flat. We saw when that happened in last year’s playoffs, and this round doesn’t suit up well for him aside from Watkins Glen International. Lastly, my somewhat bold prediction is Alex Bowman. Bowman enters the playoffs with no top 10s since a third at Pocono Raceway, and the Round of 16 tracks have produced a mixed bag of results for him. Hendrick Motorsports is no stranger to flexing in the playoffs after a summer slump, but this one feels off.

Andrew Stoddard: Well, let’s start with the obvious. Unless lightning strikes twice at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend, Burton’s first stay in the Cup playoffs will be short. Burton’s victory at Daytona International Speedway was a feel-good story for his family and Wood Brothers Racing, but this is a waste of a playoff spot. Cindric also won’t advance to the Round of 12. The driver of the No. 2 only had one top 10 prior to World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and just one since. That’s not a recipe for success. Daniel Suarez and Trackhouse Racing will bow out in the opening round as well. Hendrick will not advance all four drivers as Bowman will fail to make the Round of 12. Bowman’s win at the Chicago street course came under dubious circumstances, with the weather as well as race favorites Kyle Larson and Shane van Gisbergen crashing out. But hey, at least he has job security.

Kevin Nix: Despite the high number of underdog winners, there are few clear-cut first-round exits. Burton is the most likely, as his best shot of advancing is to win this weekend at Atlanta. It’s a nice story to have Burton in, but unless the team finds speed from somewhere it hasn’t yet, he has no chance. Truex has had a disappointing last couple of months and the No. 19 team is not clicking the way it should be. That inconsistency will cost him. Beyond Burton and Truex, Cindric and Bowman will miss the cut. Neither has shown the consistent speed necessary to point themselves into the next round and will likely have to rely on the misfortune of others to make a push.

James Krause: Burton, Chase Briscoe, Truex and Bowman. As much of a feel-good story as Burton and Briscoe’s win the last two weeks were, they both enter at the bottom of the standings with a clear disadvantage equipment-wise to the rest of the field. While at least those two have momentum, there are probably no two drivers with less momentum going into the playoffs than Truex and Bowman. Truex’s average finish over the last six races is 26th. Bowman hasn’t finished better than 16th since a third-place run at Pocono.

Mike Neff: It is always tough to make this call because there is usually someone who everyone assumes will advance who has a horrible stretch and doesn’t advance. You also have the occasional surprise driver advancing, so let’s take a shot. Drivers not advancing to the Round of 12: Burton, Cindric, Bowman and Suarez.

Vito Pugliese: These are always tricky. There are two that will make sense, one disappointment and another massive upset. Using that criteria and the tracks in the first round, we’ll bid the following an early goodnight: Burton, Briscoe, Joey Logano and Truex.

How many non-playoff drivers will win a Cup race the rest of this season?

Krause: At least two. After what he and Richard Childress Racing have been able to do the past month, it’s hard to see a scenario where Kyle Busch doesn’t finally break through and win a race. There’s bound to be another, but the question is who. Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain have all been on the brink of wins this season but have had something go awry. Buescher’s best shot at a win might be Bristol Motor Speedway, Wallace will probably get his best shot at Kansas Speedway and Chastain just needs to show up somewhere with the speed to be competitive. By the way, we go to Talladega Superspeedway in October, where, as we saw at Daytona, anyone can become a winner.

Glover: There was a time not too long ago that Busch’s streak of consecutive seasons with a win would stall at 19. However, with three straight top fives and back-to-back runner-ups, it’s hard to think he will go winless, especially with some strong tracks in the playoffs. Other drivers who just missed the playoffs like Chastain, Buescher and Wallace will also likely contend for wins. Give me three races with non-playoff winners.

Nix: Two. Busch will win one before the year ends, as he has knocked on the door in recent weeks. He is due, and the luck will finally go his way. Chastain will also snag one; he won the season finale at Phoenix Raceway one year ago, and I see no reason why he couldn’t play spoiler once more. He also has a win at Talladega. Even though Chastain hasn’t shown the pace this year, the team has proven that it can nail the setup for a race and win it outright.

Stoddard: I foresee three non-playoff drivers visiting victory lane down the homestretch. Busch peeked a little too late to salvage a playoff berth, but he’ll keep his streak of seasons with a win alive. Van Gisbergen will show off his road course skillset with a win at Watkins Glen International or the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL. Finally, like in 2022, Wallace will put it all together for a race to claim a checkered flag as a non-playoff driver.

Pugliese: Two; Wallace and Busch will ironically win races after the cutoff race. Nature’s way is cruel.

Neff: Most likely you’ll have a couple of drivers win who didn’t make the playoffs. There is a distinct possibility that Busch will win a couple of races this playoff run. His team has found speed and is running like it will win multiple races before the end of the year.

What are the best changes to the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity and Craftsman Truck series schedules?

Nix: The return of Rockingham Speedway. This is a track that was lost in the weeds of history for a long time, and I am thrilled that it’s getting a second chance after the Truck Series had an unsuccessful return a decade ago. The weekend fits better as a standalone for both series; the attention will focus more on the return of this great track and less on the potential playoff ramifications that the Cup Series always has. This track finally gets to write its next chapter.

Krause: The addition of Rockingham for both series is a slam dunk. It’s clear to me that Rockingham and North Wilkesboro Speedway are both invested in not just getting NASCAR back to the track but also keeping it around for a long time. Adding lights to the track gives an added bit of intrigue, and I’m sure there’ll be some Cup names throwing their hat into the ring on that Easter weekend.

Pugliese: Trucks and Xfinity have a Rockingham date, though The Rock was never a favorite track of mine. Hated the time of year it ran at, and this time being over Easter weekend isn’t great. The date itself is fine, but Easter is quite late this year. Hopefully it retains the date for 2026.

Stoddard: The addition of Lime Rock Park to the Truck slate is intriguing. None of NASCAR’s top three series have raced there before, and its inclusion on the calendar helps market to racing fans in the New England region. It reminds me of when Road America was first introduced to the NASCAR calendar.

Neff: Giving Rockingham a chance to redeem itself is great news. Let’s hope the fans support it this time.

Glover: The Rock is back! Bringing back Rockingham has been in the cards in recent years, but to see it finally happen brings back a lot of nostalgia. Had the racing product been the sole reason for going there, the track should have never left the schedule. Attendance issues determined its short-term fate, but those numbers should come in swarms with the return. Maintaining that will be key. Having the trucks go there again picks up where the track left off over a decade ago when it last saw national series action, but hosting the Xfinity Series is the real cherry on top. The Rock fits the car to a T, and the car’s ability to pack air on a car in front will be fun to watch.

Who has the best chance of winning their way into the Xfinity playoffs at Atlanta?

Stoddard: Parker Kligerman narrowly missed out on clinching his playoff spot at Daytona two weeks ago. He also fared well at Atlanta in the recent past, with finishes of fourth and eighth a season ago. Kligerman will take the burden of the playoff cut line off his shoulders with a victory on Saturday.

Glover: Anthony Alfredo should not be slept on. The No. 5 team has emphasized the drafting tracks this season, and it has paid off. Alfredo finished seventh at Atlanta in the spring, third at Talladega and had one of the fastest cars at Daytona before getting caught up in a crash. Atlanta plays into his wheelhouse, and if he can avoid potential chaos, he should be on the short list of drivers who can pull off the upset.

Krause: The last two races of the Cup regular season saw new winners and the first race of the Truck playoffs was won by a non-playoff driver. So what the heck, let’s go crazy. Josh Williams will win his way in. Why? Because Kaulig Racing has had really good runs on the superspeedways and is typically organized very well. Plus, Chevrolet has won three of the five races on the repave — all by Austin Hill. Williams will park it on the frontstretch at Atlanta again, this time as a winner.

Neff: Well, Brandon Jones is on his way out at JR Motorsports; it would be a great story for him to make it on his last chance. Alfredo is good at Atlanta, where he could easily snag a win. The best story would be Williams coming back to win his way in at Atlanta.

Pugliese: Kligerman is my first choice based on how things ended at Daytona in what might have been if not for a move made a split second late. That said, can Sheldon Creed just catch a damn break? C’mon, already.

Nix: Alfredo. He has shown lots of speed at the superspeedways this year, and the No. 5 team is continuing to click. While someone like Hill is the favorite, Alfredo has the talent and the equipment to shock the world, especially if the race sees high attrition. He races smart and tends not to be over-aggressive, which will suit him well at a track that punishes aggression, especially with the current downforce package. The pasta will be cooked just right this weekend.

Andrew Stoddard

Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 as an iRacing contributor. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.

Luken Glover

Luken Glover joined the Frontstretch team in 2020 as a contributor, furthering a love for racing that traces back to his earliest memories. Glover inherited his passion for racing from his grandfather, who used to help former NASCAR team owner Junie Donlavey in his Richmond, Va. garage. A 2023 graduate from the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is the author of "The Underdog House," contributes to commentary pieces, and does occasional at-track reporting. Additionally, Glover enjoys working in ministry, coaching basketball, playing sports, and karting.

James Krause

James Krause joined Frontstretch in March 2024 as a contributor. Krause was born and raised in Illinois and graduated from Northern Illinois University. He currently works in La Crosse, Wisconsin as a local sports reporter, including local short track racing. Outside of racing, Krause loves to keep up with football, music, anime and video games.

Vito Pugliese

Vito is one of the longest-tenured writers at Frontstretch, joining the staff in 2007. With his column Voice of Vito (monthly, Fridays) he’s a contributor to several other outlets, including Athlon Sports and Popular Speed in addition to making radio appearances. He forever has a soft-spot in his heart for old Mopars and presumably oil-soaked cardboard in his garage.

Mike Neff

What is it that Mike Neff doesn’t do? The writer, radio contributor and racetrack announcer coordinates the site’s local short track coverage, hitting up Saturday Night Specials across the country while tracking the sport’s future racing stars. The writer for our signature Cup post-race column, Thinkin’ Out Loud (Mondays) also sits down with Cup crew chiefs to talk shop every Friday with Tech Talk. Mike announces several shows each year for the Good Guys Rod and Custom Association. He also pops up everywhere from PRN Pit Reporters and the Press Box with Alan Smothers to SIRIUS XM Radio. He has announced at tracks all over the Southeast, starting at Millbridge Speedway. He's also announced at East Lincoln Speedway, Concord Speedway, Tri-County Speedway, Caraway Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Kevin Nix

Kevin Nix has been with Frontstretch since February 2023. Hailing from Gilbert, Arizona, his dream is to be in the NASCAR media sphere full-time. He is a video assistant, working on the back end to streamline video and audio quality of all at-track interviews. Nix also writes about news every Monday for the site.

Nix graduated with a Master's Degree in Sports Journalism from ASU's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication in Phoenix, Arizona. He also has bachelor's degrees in Communications and Political Science. In his downtime, he likes to read, play video games and take walks in the Arizona weather - when it's not too hot.