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Most Unlikely Winning Seasons & The Unfair Controversy Surrounding Upsets

If there’s one word to describe the finish of Saturday’s (Aug. 24) Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway, it’s electric.

With Kyle Busch just two turns away from scoring his first Daytona NASCAR Cup Series win since 2008 and extending his Cup winning streak to 20 seasons, Harrison Burton got a huge push from Parker Retzlaff on the backstretch to control the lead heading into turn 3. Busch went high and then ducked low as the field approached the trioval, but Burton successfully held the two-time Cup champion at bay to score his first ever Cup Series win in a historic upset.

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The win marked the 100th Cup win for the fabled Wood Brothers Racing team, and Burton became the first driver born in the 2000s to win a Cup race. He and his father Jeff also became the eighth father-son duo to win races at NASCAR’s highest level.

The win was also a much-needed boost for Burton in what’s been an abysmal season to where he was shown the door for Josh Berry in 2025.

While Burton may be searching for a ride next season, he will always have two titles that no one can take away from him.

Burton: Cup Series winner and playoff driver.

But what’s frustrating about Burton’s win is that NASCAR’s rules regarding playoff eligibility will turn what should be a feel-good story all around into one embroiled in controversy.

Last year, NASCAR removed the requirement that a driver with a win had to be top 30 in regular season points after 26 races to qualify for the playoffs. Burton currently sits 34th in points. Not only is he out of the top 30, but he is dead last in points among full-time drivers.

With 306 points through 25 races, Burton is 517 points behind regular season points leader Tyler Reddick and 248 points behind 16th place. He has the worst average finish and second-worst average running position of any full-time driver this year, but the Daytona win is enough for him to make the playoffs.

Are those results worthy of a playoff spot? Results from arguably the worst-performing team all year?

Whether one feels that Burton deserves to be in the playoffs or that his presence diminishes the prestige or integrity of the postseason, this situation is a matter of hating the game but not the player.

Burton did everything right. He drove clean and beat Busch straight up, fair and square, with the restart of his life. Under NASCAR’s current rules, he has just as much of a right to compete for the championship as all the other qualifiers have.

It’s not fair to him that the greatest night of his racing career and the 100th victory for one of NASCAR’s most prestigious teams is going to be swarmed with questions as to whether or not he deserves his spot.

That said, Burton and the No. 21 team did something Saturday night that 22 chartered teams have failed to do all season, and that is take home a checkered flag. Given his points standing and results up to Daytona, Burton’s win may be one of, if not the biggest upset in Cup Series history.

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Up to Speed: 'Win and You’re In' Exposes Playoff Illegitimacy

To show how unheard-of Burton’s win was, I compiled every full-time season (defining full-time as attempting at least 95% of the schedule) since the start of the modern era in 1972 where a driver won at least one race while sporting an average finish worse than 25th.

In the 53 seasons of the modern era, there have been six such seasons by six different drivers: Chris Buescher in 2016, David Ragan in 2013, Michael Waltrip in 2001, Joe Nemechek in 1999, Kyle Petty in 1995 and Jimmy Spencer in 1994.

Seasons With Win

Three of the six drivers (Spencer, Waltrip and Ragan) won their races at either Daytona or Talladega Superspeedway. Spencer was the only driver to win twice, with a win at each of the superspeedways. Buescher officially finished 16th in points as a member of the playoffs but scored the 28th-most points of all full-time drivers that season.

Ragan has the worst average finish of the six at 26.9, although that was done in a time with consistent 43-car fields. Petty and Nemechek tied for the worst points finish, Spencer had the most DNFs and Nemechek had the most finishes of 30th or worse.

Through 25 races, Burton has accumulated 12 finishes of 30th or worse in fields that see as little as 36 cars. He had the third-lowest average finish of the seasons listed above, and if the season were to end today, he would handedly set the lowest points finish for a full-time, winning driver.

But on one Saturday night, Burton and the No. 21 team put all of their struggles this season aside to reach the pinnacle of the sport. The lowest team and driver in points, in one of the most unthinkable upset finishes, are Cup Series winners in 2024. And it’s that unpredictable nature that makes NASCAR — and, by extension, Daytona — incredible to watch.

NASCAR Content Director at Frontstretch

Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.

Find Stephen on Twitter @stephen_stumpf

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