1. The Next Gen is no longer the Great Equalizer
While the competition is still closer with the Next Gen than it was with the previous model, the “Anybody can win any week” stage is past.
That’s not to say that there aren’t different players running for top 10s a lot of weeks, but the wins seem to be leveling out, not just in terms of different drivers winning, but also in terms of teams.
In 2022, the NASCAR Cup Series saw 19 different winners from nine different teams. 2023 saw a decrease in different drivers to 15, but 10 teams found victory lane.
So far this year, we’ve seen 12 drivers win for just six different organizations. Now, take that with a grain of salt, because there are still 14 races this year. We could easily tie or beat last year’s 15 drivers in the winner’s circle.
The team picture is a bit more telling.
The six organizations with wins in 2024 (Hendrick Motorsports, Trackhouse Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing, RFK Racing and Team Penske) all had wins in 2023. That leaves four teams that won last year but are winless in 2024: JTG Daugherty Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Front Row Motorsports and Kaulig Racing.
The issue isn’t really that those teams haven’t won in 2024, but that they haven’t looked close to winning in 2024. Across multiple drivers, those four organizations combined have just six top-five finishes this season. Nine drivers from other teams have six or more top fives on their own. None of this year’s winners drive for what would be considered an underdog at this point.
So, while the top teams are sharing success among multiple drivers, the smaller teams are once again being shut out. That’s not a great sign in terms of keeping fans engaged, because fans at least want the illusion that their favorite driver can win. The fewer times that plays out, the harder it is for fans to believe something different could happen.
2. The rule book is still written in pencil
Remember a year ago when NASCAR would suspend a driver for intentionally wrecking a competitor?
Apparently, that’s not a thing anymore. This year, it’s a fine and sometimes, but not always (Depending on the weather? The current phase of the moon? Someone’s kid playing eenie meanie miney moe?) a point penalty.
NASCAR drew the line in the sand and now it’s walking it back. That’s a shame because there’s no better deterrent to a driver than sitting at home while someone else drives his car.
Sunday’s (July 21) race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway also showed a few inconsistencies as well. After being notoriously trigger-happy on the caution to the point of overkill, on Sunday, NASCAR held a caution even after it was apparent that Ryan Preece wasn’t going to drive away from an overtime crash…and held it some more, until leader Kyle Larson took the white flag and then until the last possible moment that the field could slow down.
That’s just a bad precedent to set. Preece was unhurt, but it’s never OK to gamble on that and delay the ability of safety crews to respond. Some of the worst crashes don’t always look bad at first.
Bottom line: if you’re going to throw a flag when a driver brushes the wall and keeps going during a long green-flag run, throw one when a driver takes a hard hit in overtime — even if it means another restart.
Even if everyone’s OK, it’s a bad look.
3. You can’t hold back the years forever
Change is a constant in NASCAR’s national series. Cars change (sometimes drastically), rules change, the schedule changes, tracks are resurfaced and race weekends are shortened.
The best drivers adapt to change and play the hand they’re dealt on any given Sunday. The best have been the best at least in part because they could navigate the changing tides.
Eventually, though, something changes so much that even the best can’t keep up. It happened to the King and Wonderboy. We’re seeing it now with Jimmie Johnson; he was at his best with heavier machines with high horsepower that ran on the edge of crazy.
Kyle Busch’s Achilles heel has been the loss of multiple lengthy practice sessions, especially coupled with a car he’s never gotten truly comfortable with. Before he hung up his helmet, Kevin Harvick also struggled with the less powerful and less predictable Next Gen car. They represented the best of their generation before time got away.
4. The NASCAR Xfinity Series has the best racing in NASCAR right now
That’s not really a state secret, but how come NASCAR’s second series is often putting on a better on-track show than the Cup Series?
It’s not true of every race weekend, but the Xfinity package is a great combination on some tracks. For one thing, those cars have significantly more horsepower than the Cup cars, and that really shows up on the short tracks and road courses.
But is it more than just the racecar? Absolutely. The series has a good mix of veterans and hungry youngsters. Since NASCAR limited Cup regulars in that series, the Xfinity regulars have been able to shine.
It’s not because the Cup drivers necessarily have that much more talent (though they often have more experience), but that they’re not bringing sponsor dollars the Xfinity teams with their often lesser-known drivers couldn’t even dream of. There are still teams with more resources than others, but mid-tier teams are much more competitive than their Cup equivalents.
Intangibles?
Glad you asked.
These drivers are hungry to prove themselves. They haven’t grown complacent the way some Cup drivers can because even established teams are looking for backing. For drivers hoping to move up, there’s a sense of urgency where every race is an audition for a Cup ride as well as another week of competition for sponsor dollars.
It’s not just drivers, either. Crewmen and engineers have dreams of NASCAR’s top series as well. The hunger will, for some, become satiated at some point once they move on and establish themselves. It’s not that the Cup stars aren’t hungry anymore, but they aren’t starving, either. They don’t need to grab for every bone and crumb. But the hopefuls? They still do. Any dog can snatch a bone, but the top dogs still eat the best, even if they’re lean and still hungry.
Should NASCAR simply use the Xfinity package for the Cup Series as well? Maybe that would make the cars better, but you can’t make a driver who has already made it to the top want it more than one who hasn’t.
About the author
Amy is an 20-year veteran NASCAR writer and a six-time National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA) writing award winner, including first place awards for both columns and race coverage. As well as serving as Photo Editor, Amy writes The Big 6 (Mondays) after every NASCAR Cup Series race. She can also be found working on her bi-weekly columns Holding A Pretty Wheel (Tuesdays) and Only Yesterday (Wednesdays). A New Hampshire native whose heart is in North Carolina, Amy’s work credits have extended everywhere from driver Kenny Wallace’s website to Athlon Sports. She can also be heard weekly as a panelist on the Hard Left Turn podcast that can be found on AccessWDUN.com's Around the Track page.
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As far a number 2 goes, what “rule” book?
Also as far as number 2 goes, anything to help HMS and Larson.