Nothing is Over: You Just Don’t Turn Off The Chase With 5 Races Remaining

If there’s one constant in NASCAR, it’s the default position for many to assume that the season has already been decided and we might as well crown the champion now and save everyone the trouble of racing the next five weeks.

Not to go all Dennis Green on you, but it’s already happened a few times this season alone.

When Tyler Reddick reeled off five wins in the first nine races, many were bemoaning the new points format saying this all but solidifies that Reddick has the championship in hand, and that because of that and how dominant he was, NASCAR surely was giving them something as a result of the 23XI lawsuit with NASCAR to make them so ludicrously fast.

Or how about the notion that Ford is out to lunch, has no desire to compete in NASCAR, and Penske could barely field one car that was semi-competitive. Didn’t something happen to flip that notion on its head … ? Oh yeah, that was Joey Logano winning three of nine races, vaulting him from 17th to ninth points by the time The Chase started. Oh, and Ryan Blaney and Ryan Preece won a race during that stretch too.

Well, hold onto your pearls because here’s another piece of breaking news: Kyle Larson does not have the championship locked up. Just like Hendrick and Chevrolet were not going to just mail it in because of a soft first two-thirds of the season. We’re halfway through The Chase, but the next five races have ample opportunity for legitimate challengers to emerge. I would go so far as to declare we are NOT going to crown a champion prior to the season finale at Homestead given the next five tracks on the schedule.

Charlotte: Daniel Suarez won the Coca-Cola 600 in May, after some pit strategy following a weather delay saw him out front and in position when the final caution for rain came out. Before that, it was all but Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell’s race to win (though they did not, in fact, win) and these are the two drivers who need to win to take a chunk out of Larson’s lead. A win with strong stage finishes can whittle that 40 and 55 point gap down immediately for each of these drivers. Larson naturally finished fifth here in the 600, and that was before the Chevrolets were showing the sort of speed that the Toyotas have been enjoying all season up until that point. That said, this is the weekend for all of the JGR and 23XI cars to show out on. No longer the ROVAL, it’ll be another 1.5-mile downforce and 750hp package track similar to Las Vegas and Kansas.

Phoenix: A.k.a., Penske International Speedway. Blaney has won the last two races here, and this track has allowed Logano to become a three-time Cup Series champion. That said, Bell won the spring race here in 2024 and 2025. Hamlin had the title in hand until a yellow came out just prior to taking the white flag ruined a dramatic championship effort. This place owes Hamlin one for sure, but Bell is never out of the conversation here either. Penske has three cars in The Chase, and both Logano and Blaney need to maximize their afternoons here if they have any chance of gaining some ground on Larson, let alone Hamlin and Bell. Logano are fourth and fifth, respectively, 71 points and 80 points behind the leader. They’ve been running good, just not as good as Larson and Bell, and without Hamlin’s points advantage to start the Chase with.

Talladega: Here it is — the ultimate arbiter. You can draw up whatever scenario you want, consult DraftKings and Polymarket until the cutoff point before the green flag, but it doesn’t matter. Use whatever cliches you want, call it the wildcard, obsess about The Big One, it’s Russian Roulette with three in the cylinder and it will upset the points standings. None of the top five in points survived the top 10 in April. Larson finished last. Hamlin was the highest finisher in 15th. Until we get through this race, any points predictions is pointless. See what I did there?

Martinsville: This is the next track for the Penske Ford duo to make up some ground on first through third … assuming they haven’t already made a jump by now. While Hamlin did dominate here in March, he finished second to Chase Elliott, who led the final 69 laps, with Logano in third and Blaney in sixth. I focused on Logano and Blaney because even though Ford has made vast improvements with their intermediate speed, short tracks are still their strong suit, as evidenced by Logano’s wins at Bristol (which likely would have been Blaney had he not had the incident with Carson Hocevar), Richmond and North Wilkesboro.  Blaney’s win at Loudon was another short-ish track win; with those long straights, it’s basically a big Martinsville. Larson with ninth here earlier this year, and Martinsville is historically a strong Hendrick track. After all, this is the site of their first win and 40th anniversary win as an organization in 2024. While not as much of a wildcard as Talladega, this is track where the contenders will all be contending for the win.

Homestead: When NASCAR decided to move the season finale back to Homestead prior to The Chase changes that came about end of year last year, I think they envisioned Bell, Larson and Reddick ripping the top of the track while Blaney and Hamlin were running the bottom. We very may well end up with that deciding the championship this year, seeing as those drivers have won five of the last six races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. With only one race run here each year, it will be 18 months since we last visited this track when the series rolls in the to decide the champion.

Hard to gauge where things will be with this being such a unique track, but that was kind of the whole point with this moving to a format that spread things out over 10 tracks, not just one afternoon.