Canadian Grand Prix, Sunday, Getty Images MONTREAL, QUEBEC - MAY 24: Race winner Andrea Kimi Antonelli of Italy and Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team arrives in parc ferme during the F1 Grand Prix of Canada at Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve on May 24, 2026 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)

F1 Midweek: Previewing The Season’s Second Half

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With Formula 1 set to resume this weekend at Zandvoort for the Dutch Grand Prix, it is time to take a look at what the second half of the season might bring. Here are some thoughts, expectations, and potentialities.

Starting with Kimi Antonelli, the young Mercedes superstar, who should not only walk away with the 2026 drivers championship, he should run away with it as well. Antonelli currently has a 50 point lead over Lewis Hamilton in the standings. Some would say 50 points with 11 races left is a nearly insurmountable deficit. However, a seven-time champion of Hamilton’s stature and title might say 50 points is totally “Sir-mountable.”

George Russell, who After winning the season opener in Australia, spent the rest of the first half of the season losing his mojo. He’ll likely spend most of the second trying to regain it. I imagine a conversation with Toto Wolff at Mercedes sounded something like this: “Toto, my mojo is a no go; if you think it’s just so-so, you’re loco. Yolo.” 

Even if the tenured Mercedes’ driver finds his mojo, Russell may still consider the 2026 season the most demoralizing of his F1 career, as his best chance of a championship eluded him. 

Lewis Hamilton won his first race as a Ferrari driver in June, winning the MSC Cruises Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix. Capturing his eighth world championship would be the icing on the cake for the 2026 season. But Antonelli, and his championship lead, may allow Hamilton to just have his cake, while his championship hopes will “eat it.” However the second half plays out for Hamilton, he’ll be energized for 2027 and what may likely his last real shot at his eighth world championship.

Hamiltonʻs teammate, Charles Leclerc has also given Ferrari a win this season. If Leclerc and Hamilton could work together, the team could do the unthinkable. But who are we kidding? The two Ferrari drivers working together is itself unthinkable.   

Ferrari could win more races, but it may be tougher considering McLaren’s recent return to form, as well as the everpresent Max Verstappen threat, in a Red Bull that will be better, if for no other reason than to keep Verstappen around.

Speaking of Verstappen, no one, not even Verstappen himself, knows where the Dutchman will be once the 2027 season commences. But everyone can agree where he won’t be on December 6, 2026, and that’s on the podium after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix as world champion (assuming the Abu Dhabi GP even happens).

Verstappen has four podium finishes, including two seconds so far this year and he will win a race, maybe two, going forward. But consistency has been a problem for Red Bull’s ace this year, at least on the track. Verstappen has found consistency elsewhere as he’s consistently expressed his disillusionment with the state of F1. 

Updated: Verstappen signed an extension through 2030 with Red Bull on August 20th.

For Isack Hadjar, his finest accomplishment of the season has been solidifying Red Bull’s No. 2 driver position. That frees up time for Red Bull to solidify, or maybe determine, their No. 1 position. [Editorʻs note: Hadjar will be absent from the Dutch GP as he recovers from a wrist injury sustained during a boxing training session. Liam Lawson will move up from the Racing Bulls, with Yuki Tsunoda filling in for Lawson.)

Hadjar sits eighth in the drivers standings, right where you’d expect him to be, and has scored in all but three races, with two of those DNF’s. While Verstappen has spent much of his time complaining and/or threatening to leave F1 altogether, Hadjar has gone about his business. And sometimes, his business in Verstappen’s business (in qualifying in Belgium, Hadjar offered a draft to aid in Verstappen’s effort). 

More of the same awaits Hadjar in the second half. Hadjar has endeared himself to Red Bull brass with his sworn fealty to Verstappen, as well as his strong performance in the first half. A podium for Hadjar is entirely possible; if he can pull that off, then Verstappen will have no choice but to remain with RB. Why? Because if Hadjar can podium in a Red Bull, Verstappen will know he can win in the same car.

Switching the gaze to the papaya side of the paddock, it took Lando Norris nearly half the year, but Norris, and his car, finally returned to championship form by winning the Hungarian Grand Prix in late July. Early in the season, Norris sat idly by while Antonelli took firm control of the championship race. And when I say “idly,” I mean it literally—–Norris didn’t even start in China due to electrical issues.

Now with a fast and reliable McLaren underneath him, Norris is set to challenge the Mercedes and Ferrari for wins. And while defending his drivers championship is out of the question, Norris can use the rest of 2026 to lay the groundwork, as opposed to an egg, for the 2027 season.

Oscar Piastri has been befallen by strange circumstances this season. If not for an unlucky virtual safety car in Japan, Piastri would have a win under his belt and at least some momentum heading into the second half of 2026. Unfortunately, Piastri has no momentum, courtesy of a DNF in Hungary in a race in which he led. Even worse for his psyche, those dreaded words “teams orders” were suggested in Hungary, insinuating, or maybe verifying that he is McLaren’s No. 2.

Piastri could win in the second half, but it just seems like it would take his best effort of the season, and the confluence of bad luck or subpar performance from Mercedes, Ferrari, Verstappen, and Norris. 

If there’s a silver lining in McLaren’s struggles, it’s that the sport has been spared, for the most part, of Zak Brown talking.

Moving on, Arvid Lindblad, The Racing Bull’s rookie, has outperformed expectations in 2026, and is on a roll headed into the second half: he’s scored points in the last seven races. Lindblad, along with teammate Liam Lawson, give Racing Bulls the inside track to finishing fifth in the constructors standings, the perks of which include bragging rights among midfield teams and the drivers false hopes of a future with the big boys at Red Bull.

Free of the pressure and unreasonable expectations of seconding Max Verstappen at Red Bull, Lawson has flourished at Racing Bulls, and is ninth in the drivers championship. It’s safe to say that after 11 races, Lawson has proved himself. Kudos for Racing Bulls for giving him nine more races to do that than Red Bull did in 2025.  

Over at Alpine, Pierre Gasly has scored in all but three races, and is leading Alpine as they battle with Racing Bulls for mid-field superiority. His Argentine counterpart Franco Colapinto is doing his part, and is 12th in the points. Alpine trails Racing Bulls by just six points for fifth in the constructors standings. And Alpine’s team principal Flavio Briatore has a proven track record of doing whatever it takes, and then some, and then some more, to give his team the edge.

Haas Racing’s Oliver Bearman began 2026 on fire, finishing seventh in Australia and a fifth in China. Since then, he’s scored only one point. To be fair, he’s been close to the points, with an 11th in Miami and a 12th in Great Britain. 

The good news for Bearman: he’s too good not to score points in the second half, and his job is secure for 2027. The bad news: his job is secure at Haas for 2027; his potential seat at Ferrari will have to wait until Lewis Hamilton ages out of his. 

In the other Haas seat, Esteban Ocon has outperformed teammate Bearman in just four of 11 races this season. Two of those were races in which Bearman failed to finish. Ocon’s outlook for the second half of the season is bleak, and his outlook beyond that may be even bleaker—his contract likely won’t be renewed.  

At Williams Racing, Carlos Sainz, in his second year after being kicked to the curb by Ferrari, endured a rough start to the 2026 season before three ninth-place finishes in the last three races ushered in a very slim sliver of hope. 

But hope might be all Williams has. They are ninth in the constructors standings, which is practically last when you factor in Aston Martin and Cadillac. And Sainz’s frustration with his car has shown; he nearly wrecked Piastri in Hungary when he stubbornly refused to yield to the race leader, and frustrated Leclerc in the British Grand Prix with similar tactics. Sainz was of course expecting more when he chose Williams over other suitors. Now, he may be F1’s epitome of the misspelled “No Regrets” tattoo meme.  

Alex Albon has had just as much trouble as Sainz in adapting to 2026’s new engine regulations, but fortunately has been much less erratic than his teammate in dealing with it.   

Audi may have found some magic before the summer break: the team scored points in all three races leading to the break (Britain, Belgium, and Hungary). Audi must be pleased with their lineup, and Nico Hülkenberg’s experience is the perfect complement to Gabriel Bortoleto’s raw talent and speed. 

Audi is one point ahead of Williams in the constructors standings, and should distance themselves from the bottom feeders and might, should the stars align, even have a go at catching Haas for seventh.

No one expected much out of Cadillac in their maiden year in F1, and they have delivered. Collectively, Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas have nine retirements, and the team’s best finish is a 13th (Bottas in China).

None of that is surprising. What is surprising is that Perez finished in the points at Monaco (in 10th) before a 10-second penalty for a start infringement sent him tumbling down the order to 15th. It was an avoidable penalty, one you wouldn’t expect a driver with 15 years of F1 experience to make. Cadillac hired Perez, and Bottas, for the very reason that their experience would exclude such errors. 

Speakding of experienced drivers. Fernando Alonso was miles behind the competition in the first 11 races of 2026. How many miles behind? Multiply 11 races by the number of laps Aston Martin cars finished behind the leaders (one to two laps, if they even finished), and by my math, that equals last or next to last. The team’s lone point (Alonso’s 10th in Monaco) came courtesy of Sergio Perez’s inability to correctly line up on the grid. 

But Aston Martin may have turned a corner in Hungary, where Alonso and Lance Stroll finished a semi-respective 13th and 14th, respectively, buoyed by several upgrades. If those upgrades continue to produce, and Aston brings additional upgrades, Alonso and Aston are poised to make a point the rest of the way. If Aston regresses, which is entirely possible, Alonso may not make a “point.”

In 11 races so far in 2026, Stroll has retired in six, yes six, of them. In the five races he has finished, his best result is 13th. He is the only non-Cadillac driver to have not scored any points. His father Lawrence Stroll, known affectionately by the Aston Martin finance department as “Big Poppa Pump (Cash Into The Organization)” must be so proud.  

Success for Stroll in the second half would be scoring a point for Aston Martin. The bigger success for Stroll would be scoring that point for Aston before Alonso scores another. 

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