There’s No Room at the Cup Series Inn

As the NASCAR Cup Series regular season passes under the crossed flag and heads toward The Chase, silly season begins to pick up some steam. Existing relationships get solidified and the number of open seats becomes clearer.

As everyone develops their own theories about who will end up where, who will be in, who will be out, and who will be the most motivated to prove the doubters wrong, one thing is very clear: there are more quality drivers available than there are seats in the Cup Series.

Looking at the opportunities in the upcoming months that will potentially lead to driver changes, there are plenty of seats that aren’t changing hands. Drivers with contracts that are reported to extend beyond 2028 include these household names: Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Carson Hocevar.

That is quite a list, with a couple of surprising names on it. The drivers who are inked through the end of the 2027 and/or 2028 is even longer. Shane Van Gisbergen, Connor Zilisch, John Hunter Nemechek, Zane Smith, Corey Heim, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Ross Chastain.

In addition to all 18 of those contracts that have drivers tied up through the end of next year, there are a few that are obvious that don’t have details available. Ty Gibbs, Austin Dillon and Cody Ware will be in their seats next year barring the sale of a charter that boots them out of their seat. That puts the total number of drivers that are guaranteed to be in their race car for their current team at 21 for next year. There are 36 charters in the sport which means there are actually 15 seats that could potentially change hands in 2027. While that seems like quite a few opportunities, the reality is that most of those seats are going to go to the driver already in them.

The seats that, theoretically, are not filled for 2027 include: Team Penske’s No. 2, Front Row Motorsports’ Nos. 4 and 34, Spire Motorsports’ Nos. 7 and 71, Richard Childress Racing’s second entry, Kaulig Racing’s Nos. 10 and 16, RFK Racing’s Nos. 17 and 60, the Wood Brothers’ No. 21, 23XI Racing’s No. 23, Haas Factory Team’s No. 41, Legacy Motor Club’s No. 43 and third entry and Hendrick Motorsports’s No. 48.

The math doesn’t work because there are 16 seats on this list and only 15 charters for them. The end result is one of these will either go away or run as an open car for the 2027 season. Legacy’s No. 84 is going to get a charter, so either RFK’s No. 60 or the No. 51 at Rick Ware Racing is not going to have a charter in 2027.

Looking at this list, there are a few of these rides that seem to be solidly entrenched for next year. Daniel Suarez is having a good season and will most likely not go anywhere. Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece are consistent performers at RFK, and both seem to be rather rooted in place even if the No. 60 ends up running as an open car in 2027.

Bubba Wallace doesn’t have a contract yet, but he is certainly a face of 23XI and would not appear to be going anywhere else over the remainder of the season or the off-season. Cole Custer drives for the team his father, Joe Custer, is at, so the odds he gets booted are pretty slim to say the least. If you subtract those seats from the list, you end up with 11 seats for 10 charters in 2027.

With that said, let’s take a look at the names and the rumors that are flying around at this point of the year. Jesse Love is rumored to be going Cup racing. The question is where does he end up? Austin Hill is 32 years old and Love is 21. The No. 33 seat is waiting for someone next season. The feeling right now is that the 2026 season is an audition for Hill or Love to earn the spot. Hill will always be welcome in the team’s NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series car so, if Love shines, that would be a potential paring.

If Hill runs well and Love ends up without the No. 33 ride, then Love will most likely be taking his talents to another organization. Spire and Hendrick are the two Chevrolet teams that potentially have an open seat that Love could jump into. The Hendrick seat is almost certainly earmarked for someone tied to the organization if Alex Bowman ends up out of the seat. That leaves Spire as the only real location where Love goes if he doesn’t stay at RCR but remains with Chevrolet.

There are a couple of prime Ford rides that have the potential to open up in 2027. Penske’s No. 2 and the Wood Brothers’s No. 21 have drivers who are in the last year of their contracts in Cindric and Josh Berry. Both have shown flashes of brilliance at times but have not visited victory lane as frequently as the rest of the Penske organization.

The question is, who would take their places?

In the Ford pipeline, Layne Riggs, Chandler Smith and Ty Majeski are drivers at this point who seem to have the potential to move up. Riggs is having an impressive year and very well could be a top choice for one of the two seats. But honestly, the option would be more attractive for Preece than running an open car if that is where RFK ends up.

The Kaulig rides are unique because they’re obviously preparing for a potential move to Dodge considering its RAM affiliation in the Truck Series. The Truck Series is where the auditions are going on right now for RAM, so more than likely, Ty Dillon and AJ Allmendinger are probably pretty secure in those seats, but they are less secure than most of the others. Legacy Motor Club likely has Riley Herbst moving into the new seat, so the only spot is the No. 43 ride.

Erik Jones has been a strong soldier for the Legacy brand for years, and it is hard to imagine he would lose his ride this year. More than likely, he’ll be announcing a contract extension in the next few weeks.

It all then comes down to the No. 48 at Hendrick Motorsports. Bowman does not have a contract for next year. Corey Day and Zilisch are both capable of representing the HMS brand for years to come. If they decide to make a play for Zilisch, then Day will most likely end up jumping into Zilisch’s ride. The realistic result is that you’re going to see Day take over the No. 48 for 2027.

As you look at the way it all, most likely, plays out, there simply aren’t many seats available for any new blood to jump into the Cup Series. There is a very stacked crop of drivers running in the O’Reilly and Truck Series this year who have the potential to be Cup drivers. The problem is there is nowhere for them to go.

As the 2026 and 2027 seasons unfold, we may be looking at a time when the Cup garage is about to age out a bunch of drivers from the sport. However, looking at it from the sidelines, the current roster isn’t going to shake up very much over the next year and a half.