DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks: All-Star Race at Dover

“Money, it’s a gas. Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.” – Pink Floyd, “Money”

The NASCAR Cup Series is taking over the Monster Mile this weekend, and for the first time in the event’s history, Dover Motor Speedway is playing host to the All-Star Race. There are no points on the line on Sunday, just a cool $1 million waiting for whoever can conquer Delaware’s concrete high banks.

NASCAR may have jumped the shark on the format this year. The traditional All-Star Open is gone. Instead, all 36 full-time chartered cars will take the green flag for the first two 75-lap segments. After Segment 1, the field from 1st to 26th will be completely inverted for Segment 2. Once those first 150 laps are in the books, the field gets trimmed down to just 26 drivers for the final 200-lap shootout.

Exactly 19 drivers are already automatically locked into that final 26-car main event based on past wins and championships. That leaves just seven remaining transfer spots up for grabs: six will go to the non-locked ‘Open’ cars with the best combined average finish across the first two segments, and one will go to the winner of the All-Star Fan Vote.

From a DFS perspective, this format completely changes your strategy. Because of the 1st-to-26th top-heavy field invert after Segment 1, the locked-in studs can afford to coast early to exploit the starting position flip for Segment 2. Meanwhile, the 17 non-locked drivers are caught in a brutal math trap trying to maintain an elite average finish. If you anchor your salary cap with an open driver who gets eliminated before the final 200-lap shootout, your lineup is dead. Let’s look at how today’s official qualifying results set up our values.

The Heavy Iron

Denny Hamlin $11,000

If you want to spend up for a frontline dominator instead of stacking place-differential points, the pole-sitter is your man. Denny Hamlin handled today’s qualifying single-lap format perfectly (after a spin on the out lap) to capture the top spot. He won the last two points races at Dover, and starting on the pole gives him immediate clean air to sweep up early laps-led and fastest-lap points in Segment 1. Since he’s locked into the final shootout, he’s a premier candidate to pocket the million-dollar check.

Kyle Larson $10,500

Kyle Larson provides the absolute highest floor-to-ceiling combination on the entire slate. He grenaded his qualifying effort with two penalties, but because his spot in the final segment is 100% guaranteed, this is a massive blessing for daily fantasy players. Larson has total freedom to play the format strategy game, weather the multi-segment shuffle, and then utilize his unmatched concrete speed to hunt down a mountain of position-differential points in the 200-lap finale.

Ryan Blaney $10,200 & Chase Elliott $10,000

Much like Larson, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are high-salaried heavy hitters who had disappointing qualifying runs but carry a total safety net. Neither driver has to sweat an early exit. Stacking these back-of-the-pack locked-in stars provides your roster with massive, low-risk positional padding. They will comfortably advance to the main event while giving you immense point scoring upside as they charge through the field.

The Pricing Errors

Carson Hocevar $7,700

I said in a column earlier this year that Carson Hocevar was likely to fall into a win eventually this year on outright pace. He got that win at Talladega. Since then he’s been to the Met Gala, chased Sabrina Carpenter, been seen at Indianapolis and continued to run strong. If there’s a modern All-Star in this field, it’s Hocevar.

Rolling off 24th on the grid after today’s qualifying, Hocevar is priced way below his true projection. Because his Talladega victory guarantees him a spot in the final 200-lap shootout, you get a driver with elite long-run capabilities and massive place-differential upside with zero threat of an early elimination.

Brad Keselowski $7,500

As a locked-in former series champion, seeing Brad Keselowski priced down at $7,500 is kind of mind boggling. He proved his short-run muscle by qualifying on the outside of the front row today. Starting second gives him an immediate opportunity to challenge Hamlin for clean air and dominate early. At this mid-tier price point, he is a premier salary-saver who allows you to comfortably afford the $10k studs.

The Open Gambles

Chris Buescher $7,800

Unlike his teammate Keselowski, Chris Buescher is not locked into the final segment and will start 32nd. However, RFK Racing clearly brought fast cars to the Monster Mile this weekend. Buescher has to race his way through the field to secure his transfer, but starting this deep gives him a favorable position to pass cars and maximize his differential score if he can claim one of those six performance-based transfer spots.

Noah Gragson $6,400

If you want a cheap flyer who has to fight through the format blender, Noah Gragson is your target. Starting 13th puts him right on the bubble of the top 26 invert trap. The reason Gragson is our preferred value gamble comes down to the safety valve: he has historically been a massive favorite in the All-Star Fan Vote. If his average finish fails him across the first two segments, he has a massive chance to get bailed out by the fans and take the final transfer spot into the 200-lap main event.

Best Bet and Dark Horse of the Week

Denny Hamlin +400

He conquered qualifying to take the pole, and his concrete setup is dialed in. With his spot in the finale fully secure, Hamlin is the most stable bet on the board to navigate the format and win it all.

Carson Hocevar +1200

The speed is real and the momentum is undeniable. Starting 24th means he has to pass cars, but his long-run performance ensures he will be a major factor when the money is on the line in the final 200 laps.