1. How will the return of The Chase impact the racing across NASCAR’s three national touring series in 2026?
Christopher Hansen: The racing will be just as exciting on track. While we won’t be treated to moves like Ross Chastain’s Hail Melon move to make the Championship 4 in 2022, drivers are still going to race hard for every position and point when it comes time to crown a champion. For those drivers who qualify for The Chase, winning still is the most important aspect. However, having consistent finishes over the final weeks of the season can help a driver win a championship, while a string of poor results can end title hopes in a split second.
Aaron Bearden: There’s an extent to which the racing won’t change at all. These are top-tier, competitive racecar drivers who want to win every time they go out on the racetrack. That desire isn’t going to be diminished without a playoff berth on the line, particularly with the added points benefits of a win, so aggression isn’t going to disappear overnight. But it will likely shift some strategies and mitigate last-ditch attempts to win late in the regular season.
Michael Finley: Something we’ll likely see a lot less of will be hyper-aggressive driving in the top 20. Under the current point distribution, wrecking from ninth while trying to move up to eighth and finishing 36th instead of just finishing ninth would cause a driver’s points for the day to go from 28 to just one. Fans want hard racing for the win, not wrecks for eighth that draw the race out with too many cautions.
Top NASCAR Storylines Entering 2026: How Will the Return of The Chase Affect NASCAR’s In-Season Racing?
2. Which driver will be the biggest surprise of the Cup Series garage in 2026, and who will be the biggest disappointment?
Luken Glover: After the mark he set in 2025, this feels like a year where Ryan Preece is destined to break out. His win in the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium only strengthened that belief, and even though it was an exhibition race, it felt like a watershed moment in Preece’s career. There are seasons where it feels like everything is in place for a driver to excel, and Preece and the No. 60 team fit the mold with their speed and consistency from a year ago, which should improve this year.
On the other hand, Ty Gibbs will have a disappointing season. There seems to be a lost identity with the No. 54 team, and despite showing immense talent in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, Gibbs has only hinted at flashes of that brilliance at the Cup level. On-track conflicts with teammates and internal team frustrations at Joe Gibbs Racing have put him in an awkward position as the grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs. It feels like the 23-year-old still gets in his own way at several times, and until he proves he can overcome those moments, this is a team that doesn’t appear to be where they need to be.
Steve Sonderman: Corey Heim will be the biggest surprise. Coming off of his stellar qualifying session this week at Daytona International Speedway, I realize this may seem like an ultimate prisoner of the moment pick. However, I am calling this a surprise because in his four Cup races last year, including the Chicago street course where he did not qualify, Heim only had one top-10 finish. I think he will make the most of his 12-race schedule with several top 10s and possibly even compete for wins.Â
On the flip side, Chastain will be the biggest disappointment. After finishing 10th in points and winning the Coca-Cola 600, fans of the Melon Man have reason to be optimistic. But one statistic stands out: His average starting position was 19th. Among the 2025 Round of 16 drivers, only Austin Dillon and Chastain’s Trackhouse Racing teammate Shane van Gisbergen started worse on average.
Michael Bellifemini: I see Erik Jones being a big surprise this season and really Legacy Motor Club as a whole. After a disappointing first season with Toyota, Jones improved his average finish by nearly three positions in 2025, and he was top 15 in points at one point during the summer. This is now the third season for Legacy with Toyota, and both cars should continue to take steps forward. Jones especially can put up a solid season. With Kaulig Racing switching to RAM in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, this will hurt its Cup program in 2026, so AJ Allmendinger is going to take a step back and have a disappointing season.
Collin Bestor: In racing, confidence adds horsepower, and no driver in the Cup garage has more confidence heading into the 2026 season than Daytona 500 pole winner Kyle Busch. For Busch, I see 2026 being a year of redemption as he breaks through for his first win in two years. Not only does Busch win races this year, he’ll also bring that confidence into The Chase, where he will be a threat to win the championship at year’s end. On the other side of the coin, Riley Herbst will be the biggest disappointment in 2026, as nothing has indicated toward the end of 2025 that he is looking to take the next step this year.
3. With Connor Zilisch moving on to Cup, which O’Reilly regular will win the most races in 2026?
Bearden: This depends on which teams hit the right setups, but it’ll be settled between Austin Hill and Justin Allgaier. Hill could set the mark with his superspeedway prowess, but Allgaier could lead the way if JR Motorsports comes out with the same speed it showed last year. Without a wunderkind in the field, experience should shine through.
Glover: The favorite has to become Zilisch’s teammate at JRM last season, Allgaier. At 39 years old, Allgaier has gotten better with age, becoming a force on nearly every type of racetrack. He has won at least three races in four of the past six seasons, and he led over 1,000 laps last season. With the new Chase format being installed, it only makes Allgaier more dangerous, as he has become a consistent threat to run up front and win on a weekly basis.
Bestor: With Zilisch leaving for Cup, it’s hard to look at anyone but Jesse Love to win the most races in 2026. Although it’s fun to make a case for someone else. That’s why Sheldon Creed becomes the O’Reilly win leader in 2026. With 15 career second-place finishes, it’s hard to believe that you can finish that high on the order and not break through for your first career win. Creed does that this year, and that catapults him to a championship season.
Finley: Hill, and it’s not so much because he’ll make a big step up in performance as much as it is that his winning a bunch of drafting races is the most sure thing in NOAPS.
4. What are your expectations for RAM: Race for the Seat winner Mini Tyrrell in the Craftsman Truck Series this season?
Sonderman: Mini Tyrrell shines when the lights are the brightest. Not only did he win when the CARS Tour offered a record prize purse at the Throwback Classic at Hickory Motor Speedway, he also delivered when it mattered most. RAM picked him for a reason. He is a talented driver with a lot of upside. The RAM team has recruited a stable of talent and appear to be going full speed ahead with this investment, but five new teams is a lot to manage. It remains to be seen whether RAM will be able to consistently compete with proven operations like TRICON Garage. It may be wise to temper expectations a bit. There will be moments when Tyrrell’s talent is clearly on display, but he may not consistently be in the mix for race wins.
Hansen: Like any rookie embarking on their debut season in any of NASCAR’s three national series, Tyrrell will experience some growing pains as he accommodates to driving in the Truck Series. The biggest challenge Tyrrell will face is not only learning each track on the schedule, but also adapting to the driving style of a truck. As far as expectations go, competing for solid finishes each week and not trying to push the truck to the limit will result in Tyrrell building a solid foundation for his rookie season.
Bellifemini: A reasonable expectation for Tyrrell is to attempt to finish higher in points than his teammate Daniel Dye. Tyrrell and Dye are both very young compared to their other two full time Kaulig Racing truck teammates. I would not be surprised if Tyrrell snags a win this season, but Justin Haley and Brenden Queen will be the best out of the Kaulig bunch this season.
Aaron Bearden is a Frontstretch alumnus who’s come back home as the site’s Short Track Editor. When he isn’t working with our grassroots writers, he can be found talking about racing on his Morning Warmup newsletter, pestering his wife/dog or convincing himself the Indiana Pacers can win an NBA title.
Michael Bellifemini joined Frontstretch in February 2026 as a contributor. Bellifemini was born and raised in New Jersey and graduated from Seton Hall University. He called Seton Hall men's and women's basketball games for their college radio station, 89.5 FM WSOU, and continues to broadcast in the area. Outside of covering NASCAR, Bellifemini is also an avid baseball, football, basketball, and hockey fan and enjoys watching different sports leagues on a daily basis.
Michael has watched NASCAR for over 25 years and has covered it on-and-off for 14.
In addition to Frontstretch he also writes sporadically for his own websites GrandPrixFocus.com and StockCarFocus.com.
Luken Glover joined the Frontstretch team in 2020 as a news writer before elevating to a columnist, where he served as the longtime writer for The Underdog House. Currently, he is an editor for the site and conducts feature interviews. Glover has covered several forms of racing for the site including NASCAR, CARS Tour, and SRX events.
A 2023 graduate of the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is a promotional writer, elementary athletic director, and basketball coach. He is passionate about serving in his church, playing/coaching a wide variety of sports, and researching motorsports history.
