Who… should you be talking about after the race?
He didn’t win.
He didn’t dominate.
He didn’t even lead a lap.
But when the dust cleared after an overtime finish, Kyle Larson was the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion. Larson finished exactly where he started on Sunday (Nov. 2) at Phoenix Raceway, in the third position.
It took a late caution, a two-tire pit stop heading into overtime and a wild restart for Larson, who had to overcome a blown tire earlier in the day. Denny Hamlin dominated, but the final caution left his team with the biggest decision of their day, whether or not to pit from the lead. Fresh tires had been crucial all day, and Hamlin led the field to pit road one final time.
Hamlin’s call was for four tires, while a handful of others, including Larson, took just right sides. Hamlin drove deep into the first turn, but, mired in traffic, couldn’t clear enough cars to make a run at Larson and finished sixth.
Larson’s third-place finish is the lowest ever for a champion under the current playoff formula, but this time, it was enough.
Oh, and also…
Ryan Blaney, the only driver besides Larson to win a playoff title without winning the finale (2023), missed the cut for this year’s title run but was able to seal the deal on the race win.
Blaney had one of the best cars in the field and qualified fifth. He led a total of 20 laps on the day, including the last one after a pass on leader Brad Keselowski in overtime by .097 seconds. It’s Blaney’s fourth win of 2025 and the 17th of his career.
What… should fans be asking after the race?
After yet another heartbreak, will Hamlin ever win a title? Hamlin has mastered winning races like few drivers ever have, and he’s been one of the most consistent drivers in the Next Gen car, but the title has been elusive. Hamlin has entered the final race as the points leader under the Chase title format and not come out with the win, and on Sunday, he led a dominant 208 of 312 laps.
But even as Hamlin enters the twilight of his career, he doesn’t look done. Sure, he said in the moment that he didn’t want to climb back into the car, but he will. He’s still winning at a rate that hasn’t really tailed off. He’s likely going to end up ninth on the all-time wins list when all is said and done; he needs just four wins to do that. Title or no, he has long since cemented his place in the NASCAR Hall of Fame. Hamlin doesn’t need a title to cement his legacy.
Which could be exactly why Hamlin will win one. This year, racing for his father and not himself, he came the closest he ever has. If he can take the pressure off himself and if the chips fall right, he can absolutely end his career as a champion, especially with a format that rewards more than one race.
Where… did he come from?
If your last name wasn’t Larson, Hamlin, Chase Briscoe or William Byron, you were basically invisible on Sunday, but Blaney and Keselowski weren’t the only drivers outside the championship to have a good finish.
The biggest gain of the day went to Michael McDowell, who started 37th and gained 29 spots to finish an impressive eighth. Keselowski had a net gain of 17, and Ryan Preece capped off a career year by climbing from 21st to ninth, his 14th top 10 of the season.
When… was the moment of truth?
NASCAR has said that fans can expect a change to the championship format next year. It’s most likely that the sanctioning body will take its usual “lipstick on a pig” approach and merely change the playoff format to a three-round event with a four-race championship round and possibly eliminate the win-and-in provision that saw three drivers below 20th in points make the show this year.
Also on the table is a format similar to the old Chase system that resets the points for the contenders after the first 26 races and then lets the final 10 determine the champion. Realistically, though the full season is reportedly on the table, the 10-race Chase-style format is probably the most fans can expect, and it would be an improvement on the current system.
But the fan reaction to today’s race suggested that a lot of fans who say they want a full-season format … actually don’t.
Not accounting for the playoff resets, assuming everything else was the same (which is not exactly valid, because teams would approach races differently, but it’s the only data available), entering Sunday’s race, Byron held an 11-point lead over Larson in season points. Larson outscored Byron by enough to overtake him.
Hamlin was mathematically eliminated before the race began.
Yet a lot of people who spoke for a full season title pointed to Hamlin’s win total as the reason he should have won. While a full-season format could and should include a larger bonus for winning, if you want a full-season title and if you have used who “would” have won under that format to prove a point, then the outcome was one of the few under this format where the season champion won the title.
Why… should you be paying attention this offseason?
The engines might be quiet, but there are still some things that have yet to be resolved — but there will be answers in the coming weeks.
Barring a settlement, the antitrust lawsuit between 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports against NASCAR is set to go to trial Dec. 1. We’ve already seen a handful of documents come to light on how NASCAR conducts business in regards to teams and charters, and there could be more to come.
If having that information come to light publicly was a goal here, a settlement could still happen before the trial. If not, the outcome has the potential to have a ripple effect through the sport.
Buckle up.
How… did this race stack up?
Strip away the championship drama, and it was just another Next Gen race on a flat track. It was nearly impossible to pass at the front (though there was some good action in the pack).
A softer right-side tire has helped the racing at several tracks, but this week it just caused more issues for teams as tire failures plagued several teams, including all four title contenders. Hamlin and Byron caught breaks with cautions, but Larson and Briscoe were not so lucky.
While the tire situation escalated the drama, that’s not how a race, let alone a title should be decided. Not that attrition should never happen — it absolutely should — but it should be a story, not the story. Tire management should be a part of the game, but tire failures are a different story.
It wasn’t a terrible race, but it wasn’t a great one, either. If not for the title being decided, it would be just another race, relegated to the history books without a lot of “hey, remember that time at Phoenix?” moments.
Amy is an 20-year veteran NASCAR writer and a six-time National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA) writing award winner, including first place awards for both columns and race coverage. As well as serving as Photo Editor, Amy writes The Big 6 (Mondays) after every NASCAR Cup Series race. She can also be found working on her bi-weekly columns Holding A Pretty Wheel (Tuesdays) and Only Yesterday (Wednesdays). A New Hampshire native whose heart is in North Carolina, Amy’s work credits have extended everywhere from driver Kenny Wallace’s website to Athlon Sports. She can also be heard weekly as a panelist on the Hard Left Turn podcast that can be found on AccessWDUN.com's Around the Track page.
What the fans should be asking is whether we should continue watching NASCAR, unless sweeping changes take place before next season.
This was bound to happen eventually, and it finally did. The third best car throughout the season at Hendrick won the Cup title. Think about that for a moment. The third best car within a four car team won the series title.
Unlike what may have happened with Penske the last three years, the eventual champion didn’t win the Cup by sandbagging the season, then producing a dominant car for the final race. No, Larson was consistently slower than Byron, Hamlin, and even Briscoe in the final race, though it was hard to see for the latter due to tire/mechanical issues having the 19 often buried in the pack.
The champion won mostly due to blind luck. Yes, the 2 tire call on the final stop turned out to be the winning call, but had Byron’s tire not blown, that pit stop never would have have taken place. Also, had there been another caution, as there often is, Hamlin may have caught Larson. Also, had one less car taken two tires on the final stop, Hamlin would have been one row closer, and may not have needed an extra caution.
Something quite similar played out in the (now former) Xfinity series, with Allgaier and Zilisch dominating the whole year, only to lose the final race to Love, handing the title to what was the third best Chevy all year, and even third best is arguable.
And it took a late caution for Heim to win his well deserved truck title.
I’ll probably still tune in some next year, as I do love auto racing above all other sports. But it’s no wonder so many have walked away, and more are doing so every day. And despite my love for auto racing, I am fast reaching my limit with NASCAR. They have destroyed nearly all of their product’s legitimacy.
Again, I completely agree with you.
All very good points, well written, and your last two sentences 100% describe my attitude at this point, and I’ve followed NASCAR for decades.
I tend to disagree. I would like to see the playoffs probably go away and back to a 36 race schedule to determine the champion. That being said, the racing was pretty good this year and NASCAR, slowly, seems to be making changes. They still are the dominant racing series in the US.
I enjoyed watching the Fords block Larson on the last lap so he couldn’t pass them even though he was a lot faster.
I can’t wait to see the tweaks from the NA$CAR brain trust to TRY to guarantee the driver with the most wins gets the title.
Out of all the tires used during the event how what percentage failed? Chances are it was the car setup caused them
I’m actually disgusted that the margin of victory was less than a second and it was completely ignored for the guy who finished 3rd. NBC should be embarrassed with how they completely ignored everything except those 4 drivers all day. I’m sure nobody tuned in to watch the leader circle the track for 50 consecutive laps by himself. If the racing is so exciting, where was it?
“But the fan reaction to today’s race suggested that a lot of fans who say they want a full-season format … actually don’t. “
One might argue that those that want the playoffs are the only voices left since the majority of fans that want the full season format are the older demographic and are just casual fans now or have stopped watching altogether.