Eyes on Xfinity: Why Each Championship 4 Contender Will, Or Won’t, Win the Xfinity Title

The NASCAR Xfinity Series, somehow, for the most part, behaved themselves at Martinsville Speedway on Saturday (Oct. 25), and the Championship 4 field for Phoenix Raceway was set without major chaos.

Connor Zilisch, the dominant rookie who’s defied even the highest of expectations, and Justin Allgaier, the defending champion with plenty of experience and a perspective on racing, were already locked in.

Jesse Love and Carson Kvapil advanced by doing what needed to be done. For Love, it was overcoming several errors to come home 23rd, aided by a healthy cushion over the cutline. For Kvapil, it was making up 12 spots over the closing laps to finish 18th.

Just like every other week at any other track, there’s variables that could swing things in one driver’s favor over the other. But for these four, this week isn’t like any other week. They’ll race 37 others, but their focus will be on themselves and the other three title contenders.

Here’s what each driver has working for them — and against them — this weekend in the championship-deciding race.

Carson Kvapil

Why he’ll win: Phoenix plays into his skill set and strengths.

It may not have the banking he’s accustomed to at a lot of short tracks, but there’s certainly comparable carry over for Phoenix from Kvapil’s days in CARS and on the late model circuit. His success at tracks like South Boston Speedway and Langley Speedway, with their relatively flat and long corners, could make getting into a rhythm easy on Saturday.

Worst comes to worst, Kvapil is the best driver in the field at restarts this season, and if these championship races have proven anything, it’s that one solid restart can decide who takes home the trophy.

Why he’ll lose: Mediocrity isn’t enough at this stage.

For all the good Kvapil has been this year, there hasn’t been a ton of great, especially when compared to his teammates in the final four. Heck, even Sammy Smith has more top fives and top 10s. Kvapil’s average finish of 13.8 and lack of laps led suggest that he won’t be able to control this race the way the other three have shown they can at different points this season. If anyone needs luck on Saturday, it’s Kvapil.

Jesse Love

Why he’ll win: He’s calm, cool and collected under pressure.

The only time we’ve seen Love crack so far this season was at Las Vegas Motor Speedway after a run-in with Nick Sanchez. It ultimately didn’t faze him, and it’s part of why he’s here. Look at guys like Austin Hill and Sam Mayer, guys who arguably had better years but played themselves out of good results when they saw red. Unlike them, Love kept his composure at Martinsville Speedway last week after issues on pit road put him at risk of being eliminated. 

For just 20 years old, Love is mature beyond his years. His resume speaks to that with two ARCA West titles and an ARCA Menards Series title. His resolve is what makes this challenge, unique and with higher stakes than any point before in his career, seem easy for him to accomplish.

Why he’ll lose: Richard Childress Racing has struggled for consistency.

The team has been hit-or-miss at short tracks this season, even with Hill winning at Martinsville Speedway in March. Love sort of suffers from the same issues that Kvapil does in terms of not having an abundance of standout performances, but that’s in part due to his team being a step or two behind teams like JR Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and, at times, Haas Factory Team.

Justin Allgaier

Why he’ll win: Experience. Especially at Phoenix Raceway.

Pop quiz. Which of the Championship 4 drivers has two top fives and four top 10s in six Phoenix starts? The answer is Zilisch…and Love…and Kvapil…combined. Allgaier’s numbers just with JR Motorsports? Two wins, 10 top 5s, and 14 top 10s in 19 races. His average finish in the fall race alone is — wait for it — 6.7.

Last year, it seemed Allgaier couldn’t get out of his own way in the season finale, as he picked up a pair of penalties in the final stage. But he hunkered down and drove his way back to the front. Not a lot of drivers can do what Allgaier did last season without a ton of resiliency and a lot of time behind the wheel.

Why he’ll lose: If there’s trouble, Allgaier will find it.

Allgaier has three wins this season, but there’s probably two or more that got left on the table due to random driver errors, both by himself and others. He could have won at Texas Motor Speedway if not for the lapped car of Kris Wright. He was in contention to win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway before contact with Kyle Larson that took him out. If you could bet on which of the final four is going to wind up at the wrong place at the wrong time, Allgaier is the runaway favorite.

Connor Zilisch

Why he’ll win: He’s inevitable.

Zilisch made his debut and won. He got hurt at Talladega, and upon returning, embarked on a months-long superhuman tear where he forgot how to lose. He lost his crew chief for a week and won. He raced arguably the best driver in the sport on road courses a few times and won. He broke his damn collarbone and still, with an assist from Parker Kligerman, won. 

In a just world, this title is already Zilisch’s. While anything can happen on Saturday, the law of averages over 2025 says that Zilisch and his No. 88 Chevy will be one of the best cars of the day. Even in his weakest area, short tracks, Zilisch has a top five at Bristol and a ninth-place ride at Martinsville coming into the weekend. If he keeps his nose clean and the team is on their game like they’ve been most of the second half, Zilisch will be tough to beat. 

Why he’ll lose: Momentum is fleeting.

Most of the second half being the key word. The last three weeks, Zilisch hasn’t looked as invincible as he did during his 18-race streak of top-five finishes. He got outraced by Aric Almirola at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, got collected in an early melee at Talladega Superspeedway and had to start from the rear after a practice crash at Martinsville. Zilisch’s playoff points bailed him out of a bad finish at Talladega, and he still averaged an 11.3 finishing spot in the round, but the momentum he spent all summer building has almost been entirely wiped out.