Did You Notice?: Which NASCAR Playoff Misses Are Kicking Themselves

Did You Notice? … The next 10 races will focus primarily on the 16 NASCAR Cup Series drivers fighting for the championship?

That leaves the other 20 or so full-timers on the outside looking in, wondering what went wrong as they look to reset for 2026.

There’s still time for some of these teams to make an impact: 2024 saw a record-tying three non-playoff drivers win over the final 10 races of the season. But last year historically is the exception, not the rule. Typically, those seeded 17th on back are there for a reason, a year gone wrong that’s in need of some major retooling come the offseason to fix.

Here’s a closer look at those who missed, what went wrong and what the rest of 2025 (and 2026) might look like for them.

No. 17 – Chris Buescher

For the second year in a row, Buescher’s the first man left out of NASCAR’s playoff picture. Without the postseason, Buescher would sit 10th in the regular season standings, sitting within striking distance of finishing inside the top five.

Now? It’ll be no better than 17th, part of a devastating result for RFK Racing that saw all three of its drivers miss the cut.

If only … Unlike last year’s spate of close calls (think losing Kansas Speedway to Kyle Larson by one-thousandth of a second) there’s no 2025 race Buescher definitively should have won. Michigan International Speedway is where he came the closest — runner-up behind Denny Hamlin — but without the speed to offer a serious challenge.

RFK instead built its summer on establishing consistency: Buescher posted four top-10 finishes in June. But that wasn’t a winning strategy in a season where enough individual winners (14) put the squeeze on making it through on points.

What Now? All six of Buescher’s career wins have come in the season’s second half, including two inside a playoff he wasn’t a part of: 2022 Bristol Motor Speedway and 2024 Watkins Glen International. Watch out for him at Bristol and Kansas as a likely playoff spoiler. But for 2026 … the strategy needs to change. Buescher and this team need to take a more aggressive stance, maximizing the opportunities they get out front.

No. 60 – Ryan Preece

If there’s an award for happiest driver missing the playoffs, it’s this guy. Preece turned a last-ditch opportunity into a career-saving one at RFK, setting career highs in top-five finishes (three), top 10s (10) and soon-to-be points position (18th).

If only … Kyle Larson doesn’t ditch Preece, sticking him in the middle while leading heading to the final two laps at the Daytona International Speedway finale. Or if Preece could have held serve at Richmond Raceway, winning the pole and leading the first 58 laps before things headed south. There’s also the Talladega Superspeedway race this spring where Preece finished second, inches behind winner Austin Cindric, before getting disqualified for not passing post-race tech.

What Now? Preece might still end 2025 with a trophy. Just a month ago, he posted back-to-back top-five finishes for the first time in his full-time Cup career. A track like New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Bristol or even Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where Preece ran third this March, could produce a surprise first-time winner.

No. 54 – Ty Gibbs

Gibbs becomes a dubious 2025 statistic: the only driver from the Ford, Chevy and Toyota top teams to miss the playoff cut. Hendrick Motorsports got all four of its Chevy cars in; Team Penske got its three in as well as its satellite Wood Brothers Racing operation. But Joe Gibbs Racing fell short with the team’s future heir, no less, despite Hamlin, Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell seeded inside the top eight.

If Only … Gibbs hadn’t started the year with two wrecks and no top-10 finishes in the first seven races. Thirty-first in points that late was too deep a hole to climb out of, especially for a driver still seeking his first career Cup win.

By summer, Gibbs was flashing speed and had the leader within striking distance at both Michigan and Mexico City. A runner-up finish at Chicago’s street course, the first driver on the planet Shane van Gisbergen left behind, led to hope. But nothing ever materialized; Gibbs has a single lap led and just one top-five finish on his resume from the last seven regular season races.

What Now? Find out if first-year Cup crew chief Tyler Allen is “the guy.” It sure doesn’t feel like it; note that Allen, who posted eight NASCAR Xfinity Series wins in 2024, only did one of those races with Gibbs and was unproven at this level.

For a talent that was supposed to take the world by storm, the grandson of the great Joe Gibbs, 0-for-3 full seasons at the Cup level is unacceptable. Don’t waste time trying to fix a potential roadmap to victory lane.

No. 8 – Kyle Busch

The two-time Cup champion now has something no one thought they’d ever see on his resume: two straight playoff misses. Busch will now look to avoid the worst points finish of his career (20th – twice) while hoping to snap a winless streak that’s ballooned to 83 races.

If Only … Busch didn’t re-sign with Richard Childress Racing? Boy, it sure feels that way, doesn’t it. Once again, a strong start (Two top 10s in the first three races, including a fifth and 42 laps at COTA) fizzled out by the middle of spring.

An astounding stat: Busch hasn’t led a single lap since Kansas in early May. That 14-race drought is the longest of his 20-year career, simply crazy for a guy who once routinely led over 1,000 in a season. Cody Ware has been out front more during that stretch.

What Now? Hard question. Busch is there through 2026, a loveless marriage it seems with a program in need of direction. If I’m Randall Burnett, I’m a good crew chief sending out feelers, because someone’s going to be handed the blame for this hot mess.

No. 16 – AJ Allmendinger

The ‘Dinger has one of the weirder stat lines in Cup the last few seasons. He’s been full time, then part time, then full time again, winning twice along the way. But the full-time efforts have never been enough to warrant playoff consideration, leaving 2014 as the lone playoff appearance for a driver you’d think would have many more.

If Only … The ‘Dinger showed up on road courses. SVG made them his own personal playground this year while the No. 16 team failed to snag a single top-five result. To lead just four laps on this track type, posting an average finish of 15.6, is unacceptable from a team that throws all its eggs in this basket.

What Now? Try and steal another win at the Charlotte ROVAL (Allmendinger’s done it before) and then figure out if it’s worth, at age 43, sticking around through a long, tough transition to Dodge in 2027.

No. 6 – Brad Keselowski

RFK Racing’s owner is having a midlife racing crisis behind the wheel at age 41. The one-time playoff shoe-in has missed twice in four seasons as a driver/owner, arguably taking a step back this year with his fewest laps led since 2010. He’s now the third-best team in an expanded shop with only one win since the start of this new chapter in 2022.

If Only … Keselowski hadn’t crashed the fastest car at Kansas. He was gaining on Chase Elliott, sitting second with a car that gained speed on long runs, when a busted tire sent him busting into the wall. Atlanta Motor Speedway in June was a close call too, with Kes ultimately finishing second to Elliott. And then, there was Iowa Speedway, winning the first two stages before fading late as William Byron pulled ahead.

What Now? Keeping his organization focused in the midst of a postseason massacre. RFK deserved at least one team making the cut, left holding summer speed which could be turned into at least one unexpected victory. There’s also long-term trajectory to consider with new manufacturers poised to enter the sport.

But this question does and should be asked: Does Keselowski have enough help at the top to do all that and be successful behind the wheel? At least Hamlin, who runs for JGR, has Michael Jordan, executive Steve Lauletta and a whole team around him to support 23XI Racing. At this stage of his career, Brad might need to beef up help behind the scenes in order to keep excelling at both jobs.

No. 71 – Michael McDowell

McDowell’s first season with Spire Motorsports has paralleled his last at Front Row Motorsports: the same number of top-five finishes (two) and average start (14.6 to 14.7), among other things. It just isn’t enough to make the playoffs barring catching lightning in a bottle on drafting-style tracks or road courses, magic that eluded this group in 2025.

If Only … McDowell could have held off Joey Logano at Texas Motor Speedway in May, losing the lead with four laps left in regulation. McDowell crashed shortly thereafter, a rare opportunity for him to cash in at an intermediate oval turned to catastrophe.

What Now? This team tries to snag a win where they can — Charlotte’s ROVAL and Talladega — before licking their wounds and regrouping for year two.

No. 43 – Erik Jones

Every time Legacy Motor Club takes two steps forward, it’s a reminder of just how far it’s behind. Jones has three top fives already this year, tied for the most he’s had in a season since moving to the No. 43 program in 2021. But a tick up in performance still left him more than 180 points behind the cut line when all was said and done at Daytona.

If Only … Jones could lead a lap? Until last week’s Daytona finale (10 laps out front), his total in the laps led department was one (that’s right, a single lap) since the start of the 2024 season. For a playoff format where mid-tier teams need to win, that just won’t get it done.

What Now? Legacy finagles with their leadership structure, buys a charter (they’re in litigation over Rick Ware Racing’s No. 51), something to shake things up. Small improvements won’t get it to the front at this rate before 2030.

No. 77 – Carson Hocevar

Hocevar may have notoriety by the close of his Cup regular season but he’s certainly no closer to getting over the postseason hump. Twenty-fifth is actually worse in the standings than where he finished in his rookie season (21st) with an average finish that’s four positions lower.

If Only … One of the sport’s most aggressive drivers would learn how to close. And if one of the sport’s fledgling up-and-coming teams could put equipment underneath Hocevar that would last.

Seven DNFs are tied for the most in the series, several of which came in races Hocevar was contending. Three of them in the first six races, two for mechanical problems, made making the postseason on points borderline impossible.

Hocevar has to take the blame too. His scuffles on-track are often distractions that don’t lead to late-race surges to the front. A man who aspires to have Dale Earnhardt-like independence and intimidation over his rivals has yet to achieve the avalanche of trophies that gave Earnhardt such off-track respect and power.

What Now? Work on consistency. Only once this season has Hocevar achieved back-to-back top-10 performances. As a rookie, he had stretches that were far cleaner, and there’s a need to refocus on the one thing that puts you in position to win races: finishing them.

The Rest of Them

No. 42 – John Hunter Nemechek: Remember last year when JHN came close, according to sources, to getting cut from his ride at Legacy? A summer slump of nine races outside the top 10 has me feeling a little deja vu. The last 10 races may be important here.

No. 99 – Daniel Suarez: The die was cast with Suarez at Trackhouse Racing the minute Pit Bull left, followed by Connor Zilisch winning bigly in the NASCAR Xfinity Series while Suarez was crashing badly every week. One of the sport’s nice guys should spend the last 10 races now auditioning for those top-tier NASCAR Xfinity Series opportunities — not Cup. He’d be an immediate championship contender and potentially rebuild his career.

No. 38 – Zane Smith: Right driver, wrong timing with Front Row Motorsports, embroiled in a NASCAR lawsuit that challenged its resources. Just earning a single top-five finish over the final 10 races would be a win for the No. 38 group.

No. 47 – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse had arguably one of the most consistent starts to his career with HYAK Motorsports, in playoff position through the Coca-Cola 600 Memorial Day Weekend. The very next race, Hocevar made contact with him at Nashville Superspeedway, and the No. 47 team was thrown off their game. All that anger never translated into on-track recovery; Stenhouse is now on track for his worst year with this team.

No. 7 – Justin Haley: A driver already on the hot seat, Haley may have sealed his fate the second he blocked Cole Custer on that last-lap Daytona run to the checkers, killing a shot at victory for both of them. Fun fact: Corey LaJoie had more top-10 finishes and laps led in this car in 2024, accomplishing that without Rodney Childers as his crew chief (for the limited time he was there).

No. 34 – Todd Gilliland: The award winner for the series’ Most Invisible Driver this season. Gilliland’s last and only top-five finish is now over three years old, earned at a track (Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course) the series doesn’t race on in the same configuration anymore. FRM’s standard bearer feels lost.

No. 10 – Ty Dillon: So weird to have someone this far down the list and you’re ready to say it’s been a career-saving season. But for Dillon? With a Kaulig Racing team likely to keep him next year? It really has been! And remember when he could have won Phoenix in March?

No. 41 – Cole Custer: A Daytona last-ditch effort nearly saved his whole season. But when the glass slipper broke, a rough reality and an uncertain 2026 for this group is setting in. The most telling stat over the last 10 races may be news on their Cup future.

No. 4 – Noah Gragson: FRM has its most invisible driver in Gilliland and the sport’s most disappointing in Gragson. Another young talent with star power unable to produce the results that match his potential. If FRM truly wants to downsize after 2025, could Gragson be the odd man out? And where to next? It’s hard to see a 10-race recovery that rights the ship.

No. 35 – Riley Herbst: A rookie partnership that felt like a pay-to-play ride continues to march on as intended. Nothing to see here.

No. 51 – Cody Ware: Before you write him off for good, remember that Ware led 23 laps at Daytona this past weekend. That’s more than the entire seasons of several people on this list, including multi-time Cup winners like Allmendinger and Stenhouse. If Ware is done full time after this season, that’s still an accomplishment to hang his hat on.

Follow Tom Bowles on X at @NASCARBowles