The NASCAR Cup Series field has to feel like it’s been bringing knives to a gunfight in regard to road course racing in 2025.
In the four road course races that have been contested this season, Shane van Gisbergen has an average finish of 2.25, a figure helped greatly by his three consecutive road course wins at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, the Chicago street course and Sonoma Raceway.
Only Christopher Bell at Circuit of the Americas in March was able to best van Gisbergen at a road circuit.
Going into Sunday’s (Aug. 10) race at Watkins Glen International, van Gisbergen has to feel as if there is a New Zealand-sized target on his back. He’s the undisputed king of road racing in NASCAR, and his image as said king is almost as intimidating as the blazing-fast lap times he lays down in every practice and qualifying session at a road course.
He may have come up one spot shy of winning the Cup race at Watkins Glen a year ago, thanks to a perfectly timed bump-and-run by Chris Buescher, but make no mistake: van Gisbergen is the favorite to win this year’s event by a country mile.
Per DraftKings, van Gisbergen enters the weekend at +135 to snag the checkered flag. The only other driver in triple digits in regard to odds is 19-year-old phenom Connor Zilisch, making one of his part-time starts as van Gisbergen’s teammate at Trackhouse Racing.
Part of the reason why van Gisbergen is so highly touted on road courses is because this year, he hasn’t just found a way to win on them. He’s torn the field limb from limb, even winning Mexico City by an absurd 16.567 seconds. At Sonoma, he led 97 of 110 laps , the most laps any driver has ever paced at the California road course.
The impenetrable, piercing air of dominance almost does as much for van Gisbergen’s road course results as his actual driving acumen. Every time the Cup field gears up for a road course race in 2025, all the headlines focus on him. There’s almost a feeling of the race being won before the haulers have managed to find their parking spots.
Unlike Mexico City and Sonoma, van Gisbergen has Cup experience at Watkins Glen. He’ll also be racing in Saturday’s (Aug. 9) NASCAR Xfinity Series race, giving him more track time at a venue where, like most other facilities on the NASCAR schedule, he lacks experience compared to his peers.
van Gisbergen showed at Sonoma that experience means little for a driver of his caliber on a road course, but it only makes him more deadly this weekend at Watkins Glen. Compared to COTA, Mexico City, Chicago and Sonoma, the Glen is a far less technical road course. It’s a high-speed track where techniques that hinge on hitting every single minute mark don’t carry as much weight.
Finding little advantages that accumulate appears to be how van Gisbergen has stumped the Cup field and sailed off to victory lane on road courses, but he proved a year ago that he can still find a way to the front at Watkins Glen.
All of these observations beg the question: Do you take van Gisbergen or the field this weekend?
Either way, the numbers are enticing. Whether you look at van Gisbergen’s road course results, Vegas odds or the fact that it will be 39 vs. one on Sunday, there’s a compelling argument to be made for both sides of the equation.
A NASCAR race is never over until it is over, and it certainly isn’t over before it starts. But the fact that the conversation of van Gisbergen vs. the field is even being had at this point proves how scary the cheery New Zealander is to those who must tussle with him when NASCAR makes right turns.
The Field
Who, if anyone, can beat van Gisbergen?
The aforementioned Buescher is a solid pick. He beat SVG heads-up a year ago at the Glen, and he’s turned into one of the most consistent road racers in all of NASCAR. Add in the fact that he’s a hungry driver — he currently holds the final provisional playoff spot by 23 points — and there’s little doubt that he could take the fight to van Gisbergen again.
Chase Elliott hasn’t won a road race with the Next Gen car, but he came very close at Watkins Glen in 2022. The No. 9 team has found winning speed again over the last month, and if Elliott can return to his former elite road course form, there could be a battle of road racing titans on Sunday afternoon.
Finally, there’s Kyle Larson, who won at the Glen in 2021 and 2022 and dominated Sonoma a year ago. Of course, the No. 5 team is a threat to win on any given weekend, but if there’s any group that can provide a car and driver capable enough to defeat SVG on Sunday, it’s the No. 5 team.
A member of the National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA), Samuel also covers NASCAR for Yardbarker, Field Level Media, and Heavy Sports. He will attend the University of Arkansas in the fall of 2025.