Friday Faceoff: Who Has Had Worse Luck This Season, Alex Bowman or Carson Hocevar?

1. Which international racetrack should the NASCAR Cup Series go to next for a points-paying race?

Mike Neff: Traveling to international races is an expensive proposition. It gets even more expensive when you have to navigate over oceans or the Panama Canal. If NASCAR wants to do another International race and not incur ridiculous expenses, Canada is the best option. The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is good enough for Formula 1; it should be good enough for NASCAR.

James Krause: The top pick would be Montreal, which will probably be on the schedule within the next few years. It’s a similar case with Autodromos Hermanos Rodriguez where the series has a growing footprint there, and it’d be a returning track for the sanctioning body. Thinking outside the box, Interlagos in São Paulo, Brazil, would provide some interesting racing with its winding turns and elevation changes.

Christopher Hansen: Either Montreal or Canadian Tire Motorsport Park. Both venues have produced some of the more exciting finishes in the NASCAR Xfinity and Craftsman Truck series in their histories. Who can forget Chase Elliott and Ty Dillon‘s last lap battle in 2013 that ended with Dillon getting wrecked into the tire barrier? Or in 2016 when John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer tangled on the final lap, leading to more tempers flaring post-race? Wherever NASCAR chooses to go, there’s bound to be some exciting racing that follows.

2. Who has had worse luck this season: Alex Bowman or Carson Hocevar?

Jake Altmayer: Carson Hocevar has had his share of bad luck lately, with multiple strong runs being derailed by flat tires and mechanical failures, but Alex Bowman has experienced misfortune nearly every week since Martinsville Speedway in March. While there is some truth to the expression that you make your own luck, it seems like Bowman is often just in the wrong place at the wrong time and gets caught up in other drivers’ messes, whether he’s running midpack or toward the front of the field. There’s still time for the veteran driver to turn things around, but if Bowman’s misfortune continues over the coming weeks, he may soon find himself in a must-win situation. 

Wyatt Watson: While Bowman has hit a bit of a slump as of late, finishing 27th or worse in seven of the last nine races, he still has a playoff spot on points thanks to his consistent start to the season. Hocevar has had to battle his way back into the playoff picture because of a mixture of bad luck and misfortune. He has been in position to potentially win in the last three races, yet he only has one runner-up finish at Nashville Superspeedway, a blown engine at the Coca-Cola 600 and a blown tire at Michigan International Speedway to show for it. Additionally, Hocevar took the pole at Texas Motor Speedway to no avail and had another runner-up at Atlanta Motor Speedway earlier in the season that could have gone differently if the field was allowed to race back to the finish line. Hocevar has manhandled his way back into the conversation despite his bad luck, and until he finds that win or can establish himself better in the points, he’s going to be unluckier than Bowman. Unless we learn Rick Hendrick wants to start looking at Hocevar as a potential replacement for Bowman, that is.

Hansen: In the last several races, Hocevar has had an issue while running at the front of the field, most notably a blown engine in Charlotte Motor Speedway while running among the top five and a flat tire while leading at Michigan. However, Bowman has had way worse luck over the course of the season than Hocevar. Yes, Bowman has seven top-10 finishes in 15 races this season. However, the other eight races have seen him finish 20th or worse due to crashes or other mechanical issues. It’s been a long journey for Bowman to get back to being competitive after a concussion in 2022 and a back injury in ’23. We’ve seen flashes of good runs from the No. 48 team this season, including a runner-up at Homestead-Miami Speedway to teammate Kyle Larson. Bowman has the equipment needed to run up front and compete for wins. He just needs to avoid being caught up in accidents not of his own fault and avoid having any sort of mechanical issues to reach victory lane this season.

Krause: Hocevar. Bowman has been snake-bitten for sure, but it typically keeps him out of a good finish at best. Two of the last three weeks have seen Hocevar come up empty in races he looked like he could win. He’s clearly got the talent, it’s just a matter of changing that luck around if he’s going to win and get in the playoffs.

3. Out of all the Cup drivers who have raced at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez before, who will fare the best this weekend?

Hansen: Look no further than the most recent NASCAR winner in Mexico, Kyle Busch. Busch won the last time any of NASCAR’s three national series competed on the road course in 2008 driving for Joe Gibbs Racing. While the spotlight will rightfully be on the road course aces like AJ Allmendinger, Shane van Gisbergen and Michael McDowell, don’t forget about Busch, who came within a few laps of ending his winless streak at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season before fading late. No one is as more motivated to return to victory lane than Busch, as his winless streak now stands at over two years without a win.

Neff: Well, now that Denny Hamlin is out, we are down to Busch and Daniel Suarez. Suarez is going to have an extensive amount of pressure this weekend, but he also gets to run the Xfinity race. Busch won on the oval, but he also had a great race at COTA. Busch will probably be the driver who scores the better result.

Altmayer: I expect to see Allmendinger running up front and contending for the win this weekend. The accomplished road racer scored two podium finishes at the circuit while racing in Champ Car, and he has historically performed well at the more technical road courses on the Cup schedule, like COTA and the Charlotte ROVAL. While Allmendinger will likely face some tough competition from other road course aces like van Gisbergen and McDowell, I would not be surprised at all to see him find victory lane. 

Watson: Allmendinger has raced at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in the past during his Champ Car open wheel career in 2004 and 2005 and was able to finish podium in his first attempt at the track. Although he hasn’t raced there in 20 years, he has the better road course background over the other ringers with previous experience. Busch, of course, won in the 2008 Xfinity race and can be a threat to win here after showing some gusto at COTA earlier this year, but it’s hard to bet against Allmendinger at any road course the Cup Series goes to.

4. ThorSport Racing has yet to win a race in the Truck Series this season. Who will break through for the team’s first checkered flag of the year?

Krause: Ty Majeski is the obvious pick here, especially any time the series goes to a short track. I’d pencil him in for a win at either Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park or Richmond Raceway. Then again, Jake Garcia has shown really good pace this year with seven top 10s. He’s someone who, if he catches the right breaks, can find himself contending for a win any time now.

Altmayer: While Majeski has arguably experienced the most bad luck of any of the ThorSport drivers this season, he will likely be the first to find victory lane. The defending champion is a threat to win nearly every time that the series races at a short track, and he also showed strong speed at several of the high-speed tracks this season, like Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Michigan. Majeski’s teammate Garcia has also shown solid speed this year and has arguably had a more consistent season thus far. However, he has also yet to truly dominate a race like we’ve seen Majeski do in the past at short tracks.

Neff: Ben Rhodes has been doing Ben Rhodes things all year, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him wrangle another late-race win. At the same time, Majeski has seemed to be more consistently up front of the stable at ThorSport. Give the nod to Majeski to get the first win. 

Watson: The Trucks Series still has plenty of short tracks to go to still, and the defending champion Majeski will undoubtedly win at least one of them. He has dealt with a ton of bad luck to begin his fourth full-time season with the team. He only has top fives at bigger tracks Daytona International Speedway and Las Vegas, and he will still have to deal with the dominance of Corey Heim and the competitiveness of the Front Row Motorsports Fords as well. However, the bad luck for the Seymour, Wis., native will eventually run out with IRP and Richmond still left before the playoffs start. Garcia has been lightning fast in qualifying with two poles this season, but he hasn’t had race-winning speed. Two-time champion Rhodes seems to need a miracle to win, and Matt Crafton, well, his ship has long sailed. Luke Fenhaus put up a solid third at Michigan, but he or any part-timer will struggle find a win in the No. 66. Majeski has become the flag bearer for the team, and it’s time for him to remind people that he’s the defending champion for a reason.