Until Sunday’s (June 1) race at Nashville Superspeedway, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was beating the odds. He and the No. 47 team were 15th in the playoff grid, above the cut line by 10 points. Stenhouse has only reached the postseason twice in his career, and in both instances, he qualified by wins. This year, Stenhouse has shown more consistency than usual, finishing no worse than 25th through the season’s first 13 races. It is a good showing for Stenhouse, who has been criticized throughout his career for often stepping over the edge of control and tearing up racecars. It is also admirable that Stenhouse has maintained a steady level of performance after his team’s ownership transition to Hyak Motorsports over the offseason.
However, things took a turn for the worse Sunday night at Nashville. On lap 106, Carson Hocevar hit Stenhouse from behind, sending the No. 47 spinning into the turn 4 wall. The damage was too serious for Stenhouse to continue, and he was the first car to drop out of the race with a 39th-place finish.
Hocevar’s season has been somewhat the opposite of Stenhouse’s so far. The Spire Motorsports No. 77 team is displaying levels of speed that the organization has never shown before outside of the drafting tracks. The trouble is that every time this season Hocevar has had a good car, especially on the intermediate tracks, he has either had an engine failure or gotten collected in a crash.
Nashville was a different story for Hocevar. His car was one of several that came alive after the sun went down. Hocevar cracked the top 10 by the end of stage two, then climbed into the top five during the beginning of the race’s final green flag run. By the time the last pit cycle was complete, Hocevar had advanced to second. He never got a chance to challenge winner Ryan Blaney, but Hocevar did hold off a late charge from Denny Hamlin and matched his career-best finish.
The incident with Stenhouse marked the second year in a row that Hocevar had a controversial moment at Nashville. He was penalized 25 points and fined $50,000 for spinning Harrison Burton under caution after the 2024 race. No penalties are expected from the Stenhouse incident, but it certainly did not help to quell Hocevar’s growing reputation for recklessness.
Despite Stenhouse’s and Hocevar’s divergent seasons, they are practically in the same place points-wise. Stenhouse fell below the postseason cut line and is now 19th in the playoff grid, but only six points behind Kyle Busch. Hocevar is two points ahead of Stenhouse and two behind Ryan Preece, the first driver below the cutoff. It is an incredibly tight points battle that Stenhouse and Hocevar only made tighter.
The danger now for Stenhouse, Hocevar, and the other drivers around the playoff bubble is that the NASCAR Cup Series is getting ready to visit some of its most non-conventional tracks in the next month, which opens the door for surprise winners to completely alter the playoff picture. This weekend’s race at Michigan International Speedway may not have much wild card potential, but the five races after that feature a lot of unknowns.
First, there’s the Cup Series’ inaugural trip to Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City, and who runs well there will be anyone’s guess.
Pocono Raceway is much more familiar to NASCAR, but the three-cornered track in the Pennsylvania mountains has a well-earned reputation as a place where strange things happen.
Those races are followed by Atlanta Motor Speedway, the Chicago Street Race, and Sonoma Raceway. Atlanta is a prime opportunity for a driver deep in the field to steal a win and get priority for the playoffs, much like Burton did at Daytona International Speedway last year. Also lurking far below the playoff cutline is Shane van Gisbergen. His rookie season has been a huge struggle, but no one should doubt his ability to capture a road course win when the opportunity arises.
Of course, there are chances for Stenhouse or Hocevar to score a win themselves. All four of Stenhouse’s Cup Series victories are on drafting tracks, and he finished fifth at Atlanta earlier this season. On the other hand, Stenhouse only has one road course top 10 in his entire Cup Series career, and just one career top 10 at Pocono as well. The next stretch of races will be a huge test for the No. 47 team.
Hocevar, like Stenhouse, had a strong run at Atlanta in February and could earn his first win there, but he is hardly a sure bet at drafting tracks. He has shown some promise at road courses too, finishing third at Watkins Glen International last year. That said, the No. 77 team has been trending upward, most notably at high-speed ovals. Beyond Hocevar’s trip home to Michigan this weekend, he could be in for a rough stretch as well.
The reality for Stenhouse, Hocevar and their teams is that they all need to be better if they expect to stay in the playoff hunt. Hocevar is in a slightly stronger position than Stenhouse overall simply because the No. 77 team has shown more ability to race with the frontrunners. If either Hocevar or Stenhouse is going to win before the playoffs begin, Hocevar feels like the more likely option. Yet if Stenhouse can get his rhythm back after a disappointing night in Nashville, he will not go away quietly. Additionally, if he and Hocevar are still fighting each other for a playoff spot at the end of the summer, you never know how heavily Nashville might weigh on Stenhouse’s mind.
Bryan began writing for Frontstretch in 2016. He has penned Up to Speed for the past eight years. A lifelong student of auto racing, Bryan is a published author and automotive historian. He is a native of Columbus, Ohio and currently resides in Southern Kentucky.