Nine. That’s the number of times William Sawalich has not finished on the lead lap in his 14-race NASCAR Xfinity Series career. Comparatively, in 54 starts across the ARCA Menards Series platform, he has only finished not on the lead lap three times.
According to the social media commentariat, Sawalich ought to be on the hot seat at Joe Gibbs Racing. While JGR will exercise patience, it’s understandable to be concerned about Sawalich’s performance. He is 28th in points, 130 points below the playoff cut line. It’s only the beginning of May and Sawalich’s only way to make the playoffs is to win a race.
That’s still possible. His JGR teammates Aric Almirola and Brandon Jones have already won once this year, and his fellow rookie teammate Taylor Gray is only 27 points below the cut line.
Yet Sawalich hasn’t turned his season around yet. Two top 10s, four DNFs, and an average finishing position 13 spots below his average starting spot are worrisome statistics.
Bear in mind, Sawalich is only 18 and a half years old. His career and future are not in jeopardy. But when he entered his rookie campaign, he lacked something drivers in lesser-tier equipment had: big-track experience.
Sawalich turned 18 on October 3, 2024. His first big-track experience came in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Talladega Superspeedway. He won the pole, fitting in a TRICON Garage Toyota, but failed to lead any laps and wound up 21 laps down in 27th place.
Here are Sawalich’s NASCAR national series stats entering 2025: three top 10s, two pole awards, three laps led and 10 lead-lap finishes in 19 starts.
Did Sawalich deserve a promotion after running part time in ARCA the past few years?
Well, he won back-to-back ARCA Menards Series East championships for JGR. Which is all fine and dandy, but that was at short tracks. Because Sawalich didn’t turn 18 until October 3, he was unable to compete in any ARCA races at big racetracks last year. And that’s a detriment.
A detriment? After he stunk up multiple ARCA races last year with nine victories, 13 top fives, 13 top 10s, 10 poles and 1,349 laps led in 14 starts?
Yes, it’s a detriment. His results in his three ARCA series starts this year show that. A second-place finish in the messy race at Daytona International Speedway, ninth place in a relatively calm race at Talladega Superspeedway and second at Rockingham Speedway, where his teammate Brent Crews dominated, beating Sawalich by 6.142 seconds.
Those finishes appear solid on paper, but compared to last season when he won four straight races in which he participated and it should be an eye opener.
Sawalich isn’t ready for big-track Xfinity racing. He should instead be racing in ARCA – TRICON Garage already has a full roster – full time this year.
The No. 18 car is arguably the best in ARCA. Sawalich was the third straight driver to claim an ARCA series championship title.
Ty Gibbs won 18 ARCA races, including 10 in 2021, and claimed the national division title that year. Of his 18 career wins, Gibbs won at big racetracks Charlotte Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Michigan International Speedway, Pocono Raceway and World Wide Technology Raceway – all on the NASCAR national circuit.
Gibbs was a franchise driver in his ascension up the NASCAR ladder. He won his NXS debut at the Daytona International Speedway road course, won four times in a part-time run in 2021 and took home seven more trophies in his championship-winning 2022 season.
At just 22 years old, Gibbs is already in the NASCAR Cup Series and made the playoffs last year. Suffice to say his success in Xfinity and ARCA paid dividends.
Enter Gibbs’ successor, and Sawalich’s predecessor, Sammy Smith. Smith won back-to-back ARCA East titles and finished fourth in the 2022 main series standings. His accomplishment that year was incredible because he didn’t turn 18 until June 4, so he missed four races. Once Smith turned 18, he ran the rest of the ARCA season. While he didn’t win at a big racetrack, it wasn’t for a lack of effort. He claimed the pole at Pocono, and that was the only race his whole season when he didn’t finish inside the top 10.
Moreover, Smith ran nine Xfinity races in ’22. He scored one top five – a third at Watkins Glen International – and three top 10s. He also finished on the lead lap five times, showing promise.
When Smith graduated to Xfinity, he quickly showcased his talent. He won the fourth race of the season at Phoenix Raceway and wound up sixth in the standings. He followed up his rookie campaign with a win in ’24, finishing 11th in points, and he already has a win this year.
Smith will turn 21 on June 4, and he’s already a contender in all Xfinity Series races. His ARCA success has translated well into continued success.
On paper, Sawalich’s stats look just as stout as Gibbs’ and Smith’s. But results don’t tell the whole story, especially when there are many different racetracks.
So, I repeat, was Sawalich ready for full-time NXS competition? No.
Here’s the cold, hard truth: racing, other than at the Cup level, is not a meritocracy. It’s a business.
In Sawalich’s case, his sponsor Starkey writes a nice check for him to compete every week. His father Brandon Sawalich is the company’s President and CEO. The company is valued at $1.3 billion. JGR will happily take the check for Sawalich to race every week.
At what point do Sawalich’s struggles become a detriment to his development? At what point is his confidence wholly shaken?
Interestingly, Sawalich is seventh in ARCA driver points and the JGR No. 18 is first in owner points. Sawalich didn’t compete in the ARCA race at Phoenix and he is still ahead of series regulars Thad Moffitt, Isabella Robusto, Alex Clubb, Brayton Laster, Cody Dennison and Michael Maples.
If he indeed chose to switch to run ARCA full time, could he win the championship? It’d initially be a challenge because he didn’t race at Phoenix, so he will miss the first 50-point bonus, but in JGR equipment with his record, it’d be possible for him to make up that deficit. He’s only 38 points behind leader Lavar Scott.
Will Sawalich switch from full-time Xfinity to ARCA? No. But was he ready to move up? No.
Mark Kristl joined Frontstretch at the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR season. He is the site's ARCA Menards Series editor. Kristl is also an Eagle Scout and a proud University of Dayton alum.