4 Burning Questions: Is the Bottom Lane Too Powerful at Las Vegas?

Will we see another close finish?

Something about Next Gen racing and high-banked, mile-and-a-half racetracks consistently delivers. 

While Las Vegas Motor Speedway might lack some of the side-by-side action fans have grown to know and love at Kansas Speedway, recent finishes in the Nevada desert have provided solid late-race action.

The last few races in Las Vegas have seen the field stretch out as the event progresses, but the long runs time out just perfectly to bring a couple cars together at the finish.

It all comes down to having a short run car versus the long run car.

On the restarts, certain strong cars fire off a little better and drive out to a solid lead. As the race stays green, the cars that fired off well begin to lose grip and handling while their tires and equipment wear.

Meanwhile, another group of strong cars start to settle in. These cars don’t necessarily handle better, but they don’t fall off as much and drive through the field as the run drags on.

The last three NASCAR Cup Series races at Las Vegas have featured long-run cars, potentially with slight tire variation, quickly chasing down the leader, who built a gap earlier in the run.

Sin City’s final stage is typically long enough that the long-run car should be able to prevail, but something about Las Vegas has split the runs up perfectly to place that crossover moment right at the finish.

This short-versus-long-run battle has gone to the driver defending in each of the last three races, but it’s provided nail-biting finishes in the closing laps. 

Keep an eye on that as the final stage winds down Sunday (March 16) afternoon. This year could provide an even closer finish.

Can anybody figure out how to run the top in Las Vegas?

The dominant line at Las Vegas has moved around a bit over the last decade. For a while, drivers at Vegas followed the tradition of moving up the race track as the run went on and tires wore out.

In recent races, however, the best cars and drivers have stayed stuck to the bottom line the entire race.

In turns 1 and 2, a bumpy surface keeps guys off of the white line a little more, with the middle or outside proving stronger. In 3 and 4, however, drivers have painted that white line all weekend. In fact, most who attempted to move to the middle or high groove to make a pass ended up losing significant time.

Going back and looking at past races, some drivers have made the high line work late in runs. Tyler Reddick ripped the fence while tracking down Kyle Larson at the end of last spring’s race.

At a Kansas or Homestead, just about everyone can move up the track to find speed at the top. The outside at Las Vegas, however, takes extra skill and precision to make speed – especially at the front of the race. 

When will young talent catch up to the veterans in the Truck and Xfinity Series?

It’s still early in the 2025 season, especially for the Craftsman Truck Series, which just had its third race of the year.

But there’s an early trend of familiar faces in victory lane.

Corey Heim has claimed two of the first three Truck races. Kyle Busch won the other. In the Xfinity Series, Austin Hill took the kids to school at Atlanta, while Justin Allgaier and Aric Almirola have been in their own class since the series started on its more traditional oval tracks.

Both of these two lower series have plenty of young drivers with big expectations. But so far, the veterans have prevailed. 

Looking at the Truck Series, Heim will be hard to beat all year, but he has plenty of talented teammates driving for the same team. Defending champion Ty Majeski was the other dominant force in Friday’s race. The young guys made a splash in qualifying, but have had a hard time keeping up the pace for an entire race.

Allgaier and Almirola have been on a different planet in the Xfinity Series. The pair lapped all the way up to 10th place on Saturday. Only Trackhouse Racing prospect Connor Zilisch made any passes on the two in the final stage, and he later faded before being busted for speeding on pit road. He finished as the last car on the lead lap in ninth.

To be fair, the rookies and young drivers have a steep learning curve and a large experience deficit, particularly in the early races. As the season runs on, there should be some teams and drivers that are able to close that gap and showcase their talent. 

But until that happens, these experienced drivers might keep running away with win after win.

When will Carson Kvapil get the results he deserves?

Speaking of young drivers, Carson Kvapil has been extremely underrated so far in this young season. That’s because his finishes haven’t matched the races he has run.

Sometimes drivers who run well can have a hard time putting on the finishing touches when it matters most. But that’s not the case for Kvapil. His misfortune is largely not of his own doing.

Kvapil has shown incredible race craft in the last three weeks, going back to Circuit of the Americas. Even his 2024 starts show the pace and finishes Kvapil is capable of.

At COTA, Kvapil took it to teammate Zilisch late, a task many might have thought unthinkable given Zilisch’s road course prowess. While the No. 88 ultimately prevailed, Kvapil still ran well until a blown tire destroyed his car with five laps left and derailed his day.

At Phoenix, Kvapil wasn’t quite as flashy, but he ran inside the top 20 when a brake issue and flat sent him to pit road with less than 20 laps left. Kvapil had a solid, top-10 effort going again this weekend, but hit trouble on his final pit stop under green when Jeb Burton’s gas can ended up under his car.

Having pitted behind Kvapil, Burton dragged the fuel can out of his stall. That can slid into Kvapil’s stall, distrupting the flow of the No. 1 pit crew, who failed to get the car’s gas tank full.

That can't be good. pic.twitter.com/HCI9GT6WYF

— The CW Sports (@TheCW_Sports) March 15, 2025

Kvapil was eight laps short on gas and had to make an extra pit stop at the end, leading him to a 17th-place finish.

The North Carolina native hasn’t had the finishes his runs have merited in recent weeks, but that poor luck hasn’t completely obscured the promise he’s shown. If the No. 1 team can put together clean races, there’s no reason Kvapil can’t start to contend for race wins.