After a very chaotic and wild two weeks of close quarters pack racing, it’s time for something a whole lot different.
This week for the NASCAR Cup Series drivers, the challenge is located way down deep in the heart of Texas, at Circuit of the Americas. The world renowned road course will undergo a layout change as it drops from its typical 3.41-mile configuration to a much shorter 2.4-mile setup for all the events this weekend.
Picking your lineups and filling out your bet slips will be difficult because we don’t have any data to fall back on with this configuration. However, my advice is to stick to who’s usually good on this type of track and rely heavily on what you see in practice and qualifying before committing yourself fully.
Before we get started with the lineups for the week, let’s recap how things turned out at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Even though I lost Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones to crashes, it still turned out pretty good thanks to Ross Chastain’s great run. The less that’s said about my betting slip though, the better.
| Right On The Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Ross Chastain, 69.1 points scored | Daniel Suarez, 4.9 points scored |
| Joey Logano, 44.2 points scored | Erik Jones, 8.8 points scored |
| Bubba Wallace, 40.5 points scored | Corey LaJoie (+650) to finish in the top five (finished 38th) |
DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.
Fantasy Forecast
1. Tyler Reddick ($9,900)
Reddick faltered a bit last weekend, following up his second place finish in the Daytona 500 with a mediocre 19th place run at Atlanta.
COTA, though, is the perfect place for him recapture his momentum. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota Camry has won this race in the past and has won several times on other road course throughout his career, specifically in the Next Gen car.
The key to success for him this week will be avoiding miscues that lead to loss of track position, as I’m confident that he’ll qualify well. If he can do that, this is an easy opportunity to score a plethora of points, regardless of where he winds up in the finishing order.
2. AJ Allmendinger ($8,900)
This is actually my pick to win the race, and I’m filled with reasons as to why, but I’ll narrow them down a bit.
As is the case with this driver, it’s as if the entire sport has forgotten how good he has been on these types of tracks in his career. To count him out at places like this is a mistake. I learned that the last time he won a Cup race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL back in 2023.
With all the hype surrounding both Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch this week, I feel more comfortable going with the all time leader in road course wins across NASCAR’s top three divisions.
The stats are just simply too good to ignore. As Ash Williams from Evil Dead would say: ”Hail to the king, baby.”
3. Ross Chastain ($8,600)
The “Melon Man” was my prized horse last weekend, bringing in a huge points day at a low salary of $7,600.
I feel even more confident taking him this week, as he returns to the site of his very first NASCAR Cup Series win. Not only that, but I think a good run like that will spark some momentum with this group.
After a difficult 2024 campaign, he’s shown plenty of promise and speed early in this 2025 season. With that in mind and this being his best road course by far, he’s a safe choice again this week at not to high a salary.
I think it’s safe to expect a top ten and some laps led from driver No. 1 if you sign him.
4. Chris Buescher ($8,100)
The powers that be at DraftKings have given us an absolute gift with Buescher’s salary.
Sure, he’s run into plenty of trouble the first two races of this young season, but that’s the nature of that type of racing.
On this type of racing though, there’s no one in the field who is more consistent. Since the switch to the Next Gen car, Buescher has a staggering 8.82 average finish on road courses.
That is a series-leading number, and more importantly, that’s the stat I’m gonna hang my hat on when it comes to making this pick.
5. Michael McDowell ($7,500)
In truth, there isn’t enough that can be said about his incredible comeback last week. To be six laps down on a bigger track and still walk away with a decent finish was remarkable to say the least.
More importantly, I think it’ll be a spark that will carry this team for the rest of the season. McDowell’s roots in road course racing are well documented, and he has a win on this track type back in 2023 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
I look for him to start around midpack and gain points for you all the way to top ten finish in typical fashion.
6. Carson Hocevar ($7,000)
You had to know I wasn’t going to leave out the most talked about driver in the series.
Hocevar rattled cages all the way to a best career finish at Atlanta, much to the chagrin of his competitors but to the delight of bettors and fantasy players across the country. I’m picking him this week for a different reason though.
He’s proven himself to be really adept at road courses in both his Cup Series career and his NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series career as well.
Bear in mind though, turn one at COTA is perfect place for a driver to seek retribution on another should they see fit. If either Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, or any other driver feel the need to teach this young driver a lesson, it could be disastrous picking him up.
Therefore, buyers beware for this one.
Props and Locks
- Chase Elliott (+320) to finish top three: I think it’s safe now to say that Elliott is no longer the road course king. It’s been almost four years since his last victory on a road course, which coincidentally came here at COTA. That does not mean that he can’t come away with at least a podium performance. He’s still averaging a top ten finish over the the course of his career on road courses so it’s safe to say he’ll run well enough to get you paid Sunday.
- Allmendinger (+1400) to win: As I said, this is my pick to win it all. His record precedes him and he’s so under the radar this week, it’s like the oddsmakers are daring us not to cash in.
- Ford (+600) to win: There is such a stark contrast in odds between the three manufacturers this week, that this seems like a crazy wager to make. Bear in mind though, Ford has a pretty solid chance of winning with guys like Buescher and Austin Cindric in the fold. It’s got more upside than you may think.
Don’t forget to follow me on X for more picks and wagers for the NASCAR Xfinity Series race as well!
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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