NASCAR on TV this week
The NTT IndyCar Series field enters turn one at the start of the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.
(Photo: Joe Skibinski/Penske Entertainment)

2025 IndyCar Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg Preview

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The NTT IndyCar Series is back. 

This weekend sees the 2025 season kicking off at the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on Sunday, March 2. Another slow-moving offseason is over, and it’s time to get the year officially going around the classic 14-turn, 1.8-mile street course.  

While IndyCar hasn’t raced since September, there was no dormancy in the off-season. A lot happened.

There’s also the return of Team Penske to the place that ignited the Push-to-Pass (P2P) controversy last year, where winner Josef Newgarden was disqualified. 

There’s so, so much to talk about, so let’s go.

The Offseason

Considering all that happened, it didn’t feel like the offseason was properly “off.” Since January, the series has announced Doug Boles as the dual monarch of INDYCAR and Indianapolis Motor Speedway (why not, it worked for Austria-Hungary, did it not?) replacing Jay Frye, television partner Fox signed series-newcomer Will Buxton to lead the booth for broadcasts, and Tim Cindric stepped back from his long-time role at Team Penske as the day-to-day manager.

Then there was the official confirmation that a new car is in development — let slip by the now-unemployed Frye at the end of last season — and Hy-Vee officially pulling the plug on its Iowa Speedway doubleheader support, which included popular concerts. Add in Michael Andretti’s transition to an advisor role at the team he started, Andretti Global, and several teams like Ed Carpenter Racing adding investors and you have a busy five months. 

Out of all that news, the biggest is the ongoing marketing push by FOX. Commercials — real marketing endeavors — have aired during major sports broadcasts, including the network’s playoff football coverage. The three ads with Newgarden, Alex Palou and Pato O’Ward are so refreshing that even my wife stops what she is doing to recite them when they pop up. That’s impressive. 

How this weekend fares, especially in the television numbers, will be critical in starting this new TV partnership off on the right foot. 

Last year’s race

A year ago, by Sunday evening of St. Pete’s race day, Newgarden was the winner. By the third race at Barber Motorsports Park, he was disqualified. That is the simplest rundown of how that race went.

Since then, so much has been said about the penalty, the actual event was buried in the noise. That’s because the American dominated it, regardless of his illegal use of push-to-pass during a lap it should have been inactive. Even checking the lap leader summary, there are a lot of blank laps because they were led by Newgarden and stripped from the records later. 

With the disqualification, O’Ward heads to sunny Florida as the defending race winner. 

As far as strategy goes, while IndyCar adjusted the length of multiple races, adding laps to inject opportunities for competing tire calls, St. Pete’s 100-lap distance was untouched. That’s an interesting situation, as the race has boiled down to the same pit stop cycle over the years unless inopportune cautions occurred. Perhaps the added weight of the hybrid power unit, which will run for the first time at this event, will be enough to create variance.

Out of the Gate

Who will jump out of the gate this weekend and start their hunt for the IndyCar championship and the run-up to the Indianapolis 500? Three names to watch: O’Ward, Colton Herta and Scott McLaughlin. 

O’Ward wasn’t a fluke winner last year because of the disqualification. He has two previous runner-up finishes here. But then between St. Pete and Indianapolis, he stumbled, finishing no higher than 13th until his heartbreak loss on Memorial Day weekend at IMS. He can’t have that start to a year if he wants the title. 

McLaughlin could have gotten points like teammate Will Power in last year’s race if he hadn’t touched his P2P one corner too early. His ensuing disqualification not only took an eventual second place away but also put him behind in the points, where he might have challenged Palou for the championship by the season’s end had he at least cashed in something that weekend.

Then there is Herta, who earned his best championship finish last year and has shown quite a knack for the street course in Florida. He won in 2021 and has had two other top fives. Winning Sunday and then getting a title later, might make him awfully attractive for a Cadillac Formula 1 ride.

Fresh faces at new places

There are some drivers with new teams, with some taking a step up in ride quality. At the top of the list is Christian Lundgaard, who joined Arrow McLaren for 2025. This seat was filled by Alexander Rossi for the last two years but never found victory lane. Lundgaard was the last driver to win a race in a car not part of the Penske-Ganassi-McLaren-Andretti quartet, so his joining one of the proverbial “Great Powers” might bring quick results. Hey, it worked for Palou when he won his first race with Ganassi in 2021.

As long as David Malukas doesn’t take a mountain bike to get to the grid on Sunday, he will make the start of the season. Last year the aforementioned mountain bike accident derailed his opportunity with McLaren. Instead, he found a seat with the on-the-rise A. J. Foyt Racing which earned its best championship result since 2002 with Santino Ferrucci finishing ninth in 2024. 

Redemption

Newgarden dealt with a lot of pressure after his disqualification, but nobly, manned up and didn’t hide from the situation by doing a press conference at Barber. Compared to what he has done in the past, his 2024 was a disaster – albeit one with two wins including Indianapolis.

The major issue was consistency, which was his talking point heading into the year. It never materialized and no doubt the circumstances at the opener impacted him. Newgarden got a lot of crap for what happened at St. Pete last year. His 401 total championship points were the least he’d earned in his eight years at Team Penske and the third-worst in his career. This is coming from the man who is on the verge of tying Rick Mears for third in all-time IndyCar wins with Penske. 

A great finish will get his season rolling right. A win will get him past all the controversy from last year. 

Ganassi Duo

I’ve not mentioned much about Chip Ganassi Racing’s duo Scott Dixon and Palou, but that’s because they are the most consistent drivers in the series. One expects both to be up front or at least cruising to another top five on Sunday. Surprisingly, neither has won at this event.

A win by Palou would be both his first at St. Pete and would incite a massive sigh of frustration by the paddock as they would already be behind in the title fight. If Dixon pulls into victory lane, he will have finally tamed a course he’s been unable to conquer in 20 tries.

Fronstretch Predictions

I have no clue who is going to be good this weekend. The season is so new, it’s like trying to do a blind taste test. 

Anyway, let’s lean towards O’Ward. He has been fast here previously, and with Lundgaard on board, I feel there might be some fierce competition coming – in a good way, ala Dixon and Dario Franchitti, which will make the whole team rise. O’Ward wins, Herta is second and Lundgaard third. 

  1. O’Ward
  2. Herta
  3. Lundgaard

IndyCar’s 2025 season kicks off this Sunday (March 2) at the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Coverage will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

Tom Blackburn

Tom is an IndyCar writer at Frontstretch, joining in March 2023. Besides writing the IndyCar Previews and frequent editions of Inside IndyCar, he will hop on as a fill-in guest on the Open Wheel podcast The Pit Straight. A native Hoosier, he calls Fort Wayne home. Follow Tom on Twitter @TomBlackburn42.