Friday Faceoff: Has Toyota Closed the Gap to Ford & Chevrolet at Superspeedways?

Is Toyota starting to close the gap to Ford and Chevrolet at superspeedways?

Christopher Hansen:  Even though Toyota scored the NASCAR Cup Series win at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the organization still has a little ground to make up on Ford and Chevrolet. Ford dominated all weekend long, securing nine of the top 10 starting spots, and Team Penske had the field covered a majority of the race, with Joey Logano and Austin Cindric leading the charge. It remains to be seen whether the Toyota camp can have that same sort of consistent speed the Fords have had on superspeedways.

Mike Neff: The key word here is superspeedway. For 95% of that race, Toyota was pedestrian. It had multiple top-10 finishers because they survived, not because they took the positions. They focused on handling, which probably helped them miss the carnage. Toyota needs to show more speed before it closes the gap.

Logan Kendall: Based off the Atlanta weekend as a whole, Toyota still has work to do to catch up to Ford and Chevy’s speed at superspeedways. Toyota did not have a good qualifying performance, with Ford primarily dominating the session. However, once the race starts and the cars are all in the draft and wrecking, it may not matter as much. In superspeedway races themselves, I give a Toyota as much of a chance at winning as a Ford or Chevrolet.

Jake Altmayer: While Christopher Bell’s win at Atlanta may be seen as a promising sign for Toyota’s superspeedway program, it’s important to note that the manufacturer has still only managed to win two of the last 20 superspeedway races in the Cup Series. Even in that Atlanta race, Toyota drivers only managed to lead six of the race’s 266 laps, while Ford competitors led nearly 200 laps. With the way that superspeedway racing is today, it seems the keys to success are both teamwork and having strength in numbers, and Ford and Chevrolet still easily have the upper hand over Toyota in both of those categories.

What are your expectations for Connor Zilisch in his Cup debut this weekend?

Andrew Stoddard: Connor Zilisch has picked a great place to make his Cup debut at Circuit of the Americas. With his background in Trans AM, Mazda MX-5 and sports cars, the 18-year-old has already proven his prowess on road courses, not to mention winning his NASCAR Xfinity Series debut in dominant fashion at Watkins Glen International last season. That said, the Cup Series is whole other beast compared to NXS. I foresee Zilisch impressing people, but he won’t necessarily contend for the race win. Expect a finish in the back half of the top 10, which would still be a great debut.

Jared Haas:  Zilisch has earned some high praise for his road course skills, as he has captured poles before in Xfinity and the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series while winning at Watkins Glen in Xfinity. While the betting markets favor Zilisch to win over a lot of other drivers in the field, the field is a lot deeper compared to the other series that Zilisch has competed in the past. He should expect to run in the front half of the field on Sunday and could be knocking on the door of a top-10 finish by the end of the race.

Altmayer: While I totally understand the hype and excitement around Zilisch, some are setting their expectations a little too high for his Cup debut. Yes, Zilisch won in his Xfinity debut last year at Watkins Glen and beat some big names to do it, but the field he’ll be racing against this weekend is far more competitive. Given Zilisch’s raw talent and the speed that Trackhouse Racing has shown at road courses in the past, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him qualify inside the top 10 and run there for much of the race. However, it also wouldn’t shock me to see him make a few mistakes and get roughed up a bit on the restarts, which could result in a mid-pack finish. I’ll say that Zilisch contends for a top-10 finish in his Cup debut, with the possibility of a top-five result if he stays out of trouble.

Kendall: I expect Zilisch’s floor to be top 15 and his ceiling to be top five or a win. He is just that good of a road course driver. Sure, some rookie mistakes can be expected, but he has raced COTA before in the Truck Series, and he will have the Xfinity race to get seat time in at the track beforehand. I have no doubt he can adjust to the Cup car quickly.

Who will be the first to win in the Cup Series: Carson Hocevar or Ty Gibbs?

Neff: It seemed like it would be Ty Gibbs a year or two ago, but this season it seems like Carson Hocevar has figured out the necessary level of aggression to make progress toward the front. It may be upsetting some people, but it is the only way to succeed with this car. Hocevar is the pick for now.

Stoddard: It depends on whether you value recent performance or overall body of work. Hocevar, the reigning Cup Rookie of the Year, has come on strong lately, while Gibbs is trending in the wrong direction. Over the last 10 Cup races, Hocevar has an average finish of 18.3, while Gibbs is only averaging a finish of 25.4. On the other hand, if you look at the overall resume, Gibbs is still a former Xfinity champion. Furthermore, with eight top-five finishes in 2024, Gibbs has knocked on the door of victory lane a lot more than Hocevar has so far. With more experience and the more proven team and equipment, I see Gibbs becoming a Cup winner before Hocevar.

Altmayer: Both Gibbs and Hocevar are young drivers with bright futures ahead of them, and I believe that both will find victory lane sooner rather than later. However, if I had to choose which one will win first, I’d go with Gibbs. Last season Gibbs scored eight top-five finishes, and given the speed that Joe Gibbs Racing has shown at many of the tracks on the schedule, it’s only a matter of time before Gibbs breaks through and scores his first victory. That said, Hocevar has put his raw speed and talent on full display driving for Spire Motorsports, and as that team continues to improve its Cup program, I expect to see Hocevar contending for wins more often.

Hansen: By this point I’m sure a lot of people, myself included, thought Gibbs would’ve scored his first Cup victory. While he’s been close a couple of times, he still hasn’t managed to break through. On the flip side, Hocevar has turned heads on the track and nearly won his first Cup race at Atlanta. Gibbs will ultimately break through first, but Hocevar isn’t too far behind.

What impact will the new, shorter layout have on the racing at COTA?

Haas: The new layout cut out two high-speed sharp corners, with turn 11 now completely omitted and the backstretch leading into turn 12 now much shorter. Heading into turn 1 after a restart will be crucial to make up positions. The drivers will make turn 1 look like a bull in a China shop closet.

Neff: It won’t be much. It is going to provide one more passing zone. It will also provide a better opportunity for people to not destroy cars going into turn 12 because the entry speed will be lower. By the way, it is going to be confusing not having turns 7 through 11. Why can’t COTA renumerate the turns on the short circuit?

Hansen: COTA rolling out a brand-new track layout will be a topic of conversation this weekend, no question. As far as the on-track racing goes, the shorter course could tighten the field up, allowing for more close-quarter racing. Additionally, the race will be longer than in previous years, at 95 laps. A longer race on a road course means pit strategy will be a factor.

Stoddard: Comparing this year’s COTA layout to the previous four renditions, it looks as though there will be reduced speeds and fewer heavy braking zones with the longer backstretch being removed. This could reward drivers with a higher skill level and experience with road course racing. The first name that comes to mind is Shane van Gisbergen, who could feel right at home on this layout. The slower speeds and less throttle time could also impact fuel mileage and strategy for teams on pit road.