Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2025 Daytona 500

Ahhh, DraftKings. It’s time. There is nothing on Earth quite like the first week of a new NASCAR Cup Series season.

There’s hope in the air for fans their favorite driver will be a real contender for a title. There’s speculation on how the winter’s changes, both on and off the track, will transform the sport. And if you’re a betting man like myself, the beginning of the season means you have the most amount of money in your pocket to spend than perhaps any time during the year.

An exciting time, to be sure.

There is also no race on the schedule with the prestige and pageantry of the Daytona 500 from the famed Daytona International Speedway. It’s the biggest race of the year, the biggest trophy for any stock car racer, but it’s also probably one of the hardest to bet on.

We’ve seen it all in this race; close finishes, upset winners, big crashes, all things that decide triumph or tragedy for a bettor. Lady Luck can turn the best-laid bets here into torn-up sheet metal in a matter of seconds.

The best strategy I can advise you to use this week is really simple. Go with your gut, trust what you saw in the Duel races on Thursday, and most importantly of all, do not base too much of your selections here on raw statistics. We have seen no repeat winners of the Daytona 500 race since 2020, a feat that’s rare for drafting-style tracks. In fact, we’ve seen no repeat winners on any superspeedway since the introduction of the Next Gen car.

But the unknowns are what make it so much fun, folks. Speaking of which, if you don’t know the rules for DraftKings, get yourself set to bet in 2025.

DraftKings Rules of the Road

Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.

However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.

Before we get into the lineup for the week, let’s look back at the exhibition Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium. This writer was particularly pleased with his results: all my drivers made the feature and I picked up some momentum courtesy of a Chase Elliott win. That said, my wallet still burned a little bit of a hole inside so I’m hoping for improvement this weekend.

Right on the Money	Lick Your Wounds
#2 pick Chase Elliott: Race winner	Justin Haley (+1800) to finish top three: didn’t make feature
#1 pick Denny Hamlin: finished third	#3 pick Alex Bowman: finished 19th
#4 pick Bubba Wallace: finished fifth	Ryan Preece (+2800) to win: finished 11th

Fantasy Forecast

1. Ryan Blaney ($9,700)

YRB is my pick to win the 500 this year, hands down.

Not only is he a master of this style of racing, but his No. 12 is a Ford, and Blue Oval teams always bring horsepower to these drafting tracks.

Blaney has four career drafting track wins and has finished runner-up in this race in 2020. Beyond the stats, though, I just like his demeanor in front of the press this week. He’s exuding a confidence that you have to appreciate and fear at the same time as a competitor. The way his car looks in the draft is also a plus for me.

While both of his Team Penske teammates have looked faster, they also seem more out of control in the draft than he does. For that reason, and with all the momentum that Penske has in its favor right now, I can’t pick against Blaney come Sunday (Feb. 16).

2. Kyle Busch ($9,300)

If you aren’t a longtime reader of this column, you need to know I feel somewhat personally responsible for how bad last season was for KFB.

It seemed every single time I picked him last year, bad luck found us both. But a new year means a fresh start, and there were some signs at The Clash a couple of weeks ago= the old Busch is still in there. There were even more in his Duel race, as Busch was absolutely one of the best pushers in the field, keeping guys like Elliott and Austin Dillon in the hunt at times.

An aggressive, somewhat angry and motivated Busch is the best version of him. I think we’ll see that man on Sunday for certain. He’s out for a revenge tour after a tough-luck 2024, and the first stop is to win just about the only thing he hasn’t: the Daytona 500.

3. Bubba Wallace ($8,600)

BW walked away a winner in his Duel race Thursday, and it was mighty impressive, to say the least. He and teammate Tyler Reddick took the fight to the Chevrolet Camaros, lap after lap, until they just couldn’t stop the 23XI Racing duo.

It was the most impressive thing I saw in either race and it stuck with me. Wallace has also been a driver who thrives on momentum throughout his career and there’s nothing better than a win to spike it. Two runner-up finishes in the 500 in his career have him knocking on the door.

Like his good friend Blaney, Wallace is also a master of this style of racing. The key is to avoid problems not of his own making, which he has struggled to do in these races in the past. If he can do that, I can easily see him grabbing you key points this weekend, even if it’s not a win.

4. Chase Briscoe ($8,000)

I’ll admit, I was surprised when Briscoe put his new ride on the pole Wednesday night.

He’s not known for drafting track prowess, nor is Toyota, but as I mentioned about Wallace, they’ve brought plenty of speed to this place in 2025.

Qualifying on the pole here is also more important than ever. The days of going from 18th to first in six laps like Dale Earnhardt are gone. If you get up front, it’s not so hard to stay up there, but it’s extremely difficult to get track position back on these superspeedways.

I don’t think Briscoe will do much as far as winning the race on Sunday, but I expect plenty of fast laps and at least a top 10 out of him, which will still net you points at the end of the day.

5. Todd Gilliland ($7,800)

Gilliland is in his new role as the lead dog at Front Row Motorsports this season, and he is expected to thrive. So far, he’s looked pretty darn good, putting in a solid qualifying time and finishing a solid seventh in the Duel race.

In my opinion, he’s the most underrated driver in the field and will be one to watch at every big oval track on the schedule. With his starting position in midfield, just finishing above his qualifying spot (14th) will net good points returns as well. Remember, Gilliland led 16 laps in this race last year before crashing.

6. Ty Dillon ($5,400)

My goodness, was it just me or did it look like Dillon “had that dog in him” in his Duel race on Thursday? A third-place finish was the best he’s looked in quite some time.

The journeyman driver rolls into this week with a very low salary and the No. 10 car has looked very fast in the draft, with or without help. That’s a recipe for fantasy success, folks.

It’s also worth noting that Dillon’s new race team, Kaulig Racing, has become known to be drafting track specialists in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. It could be a huge return for a low-salary driver if you sign him this week.

Props and Locks

1. Blaney (+1100) to win: As I mentioned earlier, I’m all in on No. 12 this week. The 2023 Cup champion has the know-how, the speed and the handling to win this race. Those odds are a gift from the oddsmakers and I plan to cash in on them. Hopefully, you will too.
   
2. Toyota (+260) to win: The days of discounting Toyota drivers at the drafting tracks seem to be a thing of the past suddenly. They put Briscoe on the pole, then very nearly swept the Duel races Thursday while getting strategy and teamwork in order. The Camry crowd also boasts a great roster of strong drafting track drivers, including three-time Daytona 500 winner Hamlin. It’s easy to see them winning this race.
   
3. Ryan Preece (+4000) most fastest laps: This is a new category of prop bet that I haven’t seen before and I think it’s worth a try. Hitting on a long shot will be extremely difficult but use this logic: pick someone like this Ford driver starting mid-pack (27th in this case) because they’re already super fast and will be faster if they spend the whole race in the draft. If Preece, who nearly landed on the front row in qualifying, can stay out of trouble and work the draft well, his speedy laps at the back of the pack could lead to a massive payout in this category.