After another long season with plenty of storylines both on and off the racetrack, this weekend serves as the penultimate race to the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season.
Throughout the year, teams have ebbed and flowed into grooves and slumps. And much like with any sport, whoever finds their stride at the right time certainly matters, but with NASCAR, location matters just as much.
This weekend’s race is, of course, at Phoenix Raceway, and that could bode well for one driver in particular.
Looking back at the early race at Phoenix this season, Toyota dominated from start to finish. Four of the top 10 finishers in the race were Toyota drivers, with Christopher Bell taking the win.
However, it isn’t Bell who’s racing for a championship this weekend.
Tyler Reddick, who finished 10th in the earlier race, comes into this one as Toyota’s lone shot at the grandest trophy of them all. Does Toyota’s spring dominance make him the odds-on favorite, though? Las Vegas says absolutely not. In fact, according to the oddsmakers, Reddick is the long shot.
Defending champion Ryan Blaney currently leads all of the Championship 4 drivers at +185. William Byron follows at +275, while Joey Logano sits narrowly in third at +300. Reddick’s long-shot championship odds currently sit at +330.
What’s the deal here, right? Reddick and company dominated the track earlier in the season, so it’d be fair to assume that the same thing could happen.
The issue with that logic warrants a complicated answer.
NASCAR seasons span the course of almost an entire year, and that race took place in March. Since then, the cars have been tweaked by NASCAR, its teams and everyone else under the sun. If Toyota showed up to this weekend’s race with the exact same car it raced in Phoenix, it probably wouldn’t even pass the safety inspection, much less win the race if it did.
Teams will show up to Phoenix this weekend with the culmination of a complete arsenal they’ve been building and tweaking all season long. It doesn’t matter if Toyota finished 1-5 at Phoenix in March, because when November hits, the cars race completely different than early in the season.
The cars being vastly different is not the only reason that Reddick can’t be the favorite here, though. There’s the numbers game to think about as well.
Ford is at a clear advantage with two drivers in the Championship 4, not to mention a win under its belt last week at Martinsville Speedway. Chevrolet might have just as many drivers in the championship as Toyota, but when one zooms out on the entire grid, it’s got plenty of drivers with the speed and record at the track to help out Byron when he needs it.
Reddick will certainly have help, but if anything, that serves as an equalizer in this case, not a benefit. His win at Homestead-Miami Speedway serves as the key reason to push any chips toward his side of the table. Of course, a regular-season championship doesn’t hurt, but in the playoffs it’s win or get out, and Reddick has at least done that.
This playoff format may not be good for much. It prioritizes winning and sometimes allows some drivers to appear in spots in which they probably have no real business being. However, if there’s one thing it does well, it’s leaving the ending up to plenty of chance.
That’s why I can say with the utmost confidence that even the oddsmakers have no real clue what’s going to happen this weekend. And if that’s the case, neither do Ford, Toyota or Chevy. That’s why they race, after all.
No, Reddick and Toyota are not the favorites, but they’re not truly underdogs, either. The truth is somewhere in the middle, as always.
Only one thing is for certain: NASCAR will have its 2024 champion this weekend, and the rest is up to chance.
About the author
Tanner Marlar is a staff writer for Sports Illustrated’s Cowbell Corner, an AP Wire reporter, an award-winning sports columnist and talk show host and master's student at Mississippi State University. Soon, Tanner will be pursuing a PhD. in Mass Media Studies. Tanner began working with Frontstretch as an Xfinity Series columnist in 2022.
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No favorite. It’s a crapshoot championship race. Whichever of the four hit on it for 1 race and runs error free. Somebody puts oil down in front of you and you wreck , your not the champion even if you won 30 races this year. Flip a coin