Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2024 Xfinity 500

Nine months in, 34 weeks have come and gone in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. But this Sunday’s event (Nov. 2) at Martinsville Speedway is likely the most important of them all.

When the checkered flag falls over the 2024 Xfinity 500, the Championship 4 will be set. That also means a whole lot of fantasy owners will be on the doorstep of a title themselves.

I hope I can help you guys to make the right decisions to capture that coveted championship. Before we get to that, I present to you the most diabolical bet slip bad break I’ve ever encountered from Homestead-Miami Speedway.

RIGHT ON THE MONEY	LICK YOUR WOUNDS
Tyler Reddick +130 over Kyle Larson	Denny Hamlin +900 to win
Chase Elliott (74.3 points, finished fifth)	Kyle Busch (-2.8 points, finished 31st)
Christopher Bell (45.2 points, finished fourth)	Justin Haley (-14.1 points, finished 34th)

As you can see, Reddick did win me the wager I placed concerning he and Larson. However, Hamlin was right on the cusp of victory when the No. 45 drove first by his No. 11, then Ryan Blaney over the final few laps of the race.

I had a two-leg parlay with precisely those two wagers, so Reddick killed me while grabbing me a win on the other leg.

I still love this sport. I just wish the odds loved me.

As we move on to a new week and new opportunities to win, here’s a rules breakdown as usual:

Drivers will be awarded DK points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.

However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

Fantasy Forecast

1. Chase Elliott ($10,500)

Elliott once again had the speed to win at Homestead last week, but fell short as time ran out. I think that’s alright, though.

Martinsville is a better track for him anyway and he’s won his way in at this place before, of course. I just love how locked in Driver No. 9 appears to be after one of his best weeks of the year. 81 laps led at Homestead was a season high in a year they’ve led just 15 of 34 events.

The only thing that will keep this Elliott out of the Championship 4 will be if the team beats itself. That’s happened all too often the past year or two but this time around? Don’t bet on it.

2. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300)

You may be puzzled as to why I selected Truex this week. Honestly, so am I.

He’s just been so good here over the past decade I can’t ignore it. Truex has three career wins at the paperclip and an average finish of 15.9 in 37 starts.

As I said about Kyle Busch’s season last week, Martinsville is likely Truex’s last best chance at ending his full-time career with a win. I think the No. 19 team knows that and will absolutely bring it all weekend long.

3. Ross Chastain ($8,300)

It’s two years now since the “Hail Melon” lit a match and set fire to the racing world, which is hard to believe. The MarioKart Martinsville move will live in infamy as one of Chastain’s all-time best performances.

It is even harder to believe how bad Chastain was last week at Homestead. He wound up 33rd, the final car on the lead lap and was never competitive, a rarity for this Trackhouse Racing program.

I predict it will be a bounce-back effort for Chastain this week, returning to a track that means a lot to him. He’s maintained some momentum here, too, finishing either 13th or 14th in each start at Martinsville since that famous day in 2022. I see a solid points day for a non-playoff driver looking to establish momentum for 2025.

4. Bubba Wallace ($7,800)

I have said in the past that I will always pick Wallace at Martinsville. I’m holding myself to that this week.

He’s won here in the Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series in the past and always seems to be in the mix at this place. The No. 23 team also had a ton of speed last week, so I feel like they have good momentum. Keep in mind Wallace had a front row start at Martinsville in the spring, finishing fourth, and has seven straight top-20 results during these playoffs.

5. Josh Berry ($7,300)

Berry’s season has had very few highlights since the playoffs began. In fact, last weekend at Homestead marked the Cup rookie’s first finish better than 22nd since Richmond in mid-August.

But Berry’s got a couple of Xfinity wins here at Martinsville and is known as a short track specialist. As Stewart-Haas Racing gets nostalgic, their shutdown imminent, Berry has every reason to put it all on the line this week. Expect a good shot at a solid run.

6. Austin Dillon ($6,500)

Dillon has also had a pretty tough year, but his best performance of the season by far was the controversial win at Richmond in August. Short tracks give this underperforming program a chance to stand out.

With that being said, Dillon has a career average finish of 19.5 here at Martinsville, making this weekend’s road to victory a tougher hill to climb. With that said, the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing is cheap and solid enough at this price to warrant the selection.

Prop Bets and Locks

1. Christopher Bell (+1100) to win: Bell has been on a tear through the playoffs, to be sure, but hasn’t snagged a signature win in eight races. He’s due for a victory and has won his way in to the Championship 4 here before. The Oklahoman’s got good odds and stands a great chance to be at or near the front this weekend.
2. Wallace (+800) to finish top three: I just have so much faith in the No. 23 this week. I think he could easily be the winner but a top-three finish will get you a good payout anyway.
3. Shane Van Gisbergen (+500) to finish in the top 10: While SVG is not a short track ace by any stretch, the New Zealander is aggressive and savvy when it comes to driving this Next Gen car. I think he stands a great chance at this fun little wager and could net some good money for you.