Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2024 Straight Talk Wireless 400

The NASCAR Cup Series and its playoff Round of 8 heads east this weekend to the tropical (and racing) paradise that is 1.5-mile Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Homestead is known for amazing intermediate track competition for decades, long before the Next Gen made such things fashionable again. It also used to be the playoff finale host for most iterations of the sport’s postseason format, including the Championship 4 throughout the 2010s.

Such a prominent place on the schedule has given HMS plenty of incredible moments over the years; this weekend figures to have at least one more in store. Four of the best drivers in the sport, with two champions listed among them, will desperately try and pull themselves from the brink. Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick are all in a must-win situation in order to earn a spot at Phoenix Raceway’s championship finale.

How will your maximize your own postseason roster on DraftKings? When picking your lineup and filling out your bet slips, dig into the recent past at other intermediate tracks, such as Charlotte Motor Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The drivers who were good last week at LVMS will most certainly be good this week on a similar-sized oval.

Let’s take a quick look at last week while we’re at it. I didn’t really miss on any of my fantasy selections, making a little extra cash in the process.

RIGHT ON THE MONEY	LICK YOUR WOUNDS
Ford +320 for the win	Kyle Busch +1400 to win (finished 13th)
Joey Logano (Race Win, 57.3 points earned)
Alex Bowman +110 to finish in the top 10 (finished fifth)

It was definitely a great week for me and I sincerely hope it was for you guys, too.

Here’s a quick DraftKings rules breakdown before we get into the picks for the week:

Drivers will be awarded DK points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.

However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

For more info… DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules

Fantasy Forecast

1. Christopher Bell ($10,800)

Last week’s runner-up had the dominant car all afternoon in Vegas, and that momentum bodes well for Homestead; Bell’s the defending winner of this race. He used this victory to clinch a Championship 4 spot and is looking to make it for a third straight year.

There is no doubt in my mind that the No. 20 Toyota team can go back-to-back here. Bell won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte earlier this year, leading 90 laps, and has led 277 circuits at the last two 1.5-mile tracks we’ve visited (LVMS and Kansas Speedway). He just seems to have the magic when it comes to these Round of 8 tracks.

I expect him to not only win this week, but Bell continues to be my title favorite. Pick accordingly

2. Chase Elliott ($9,500)

The pride of Dawsonville, Ga. faces arguably the toughest challenge of his career over the next two weeks. Elliott sits 53 points below the cutline, putting him in desperation mode to make it to his fourth career Championship 4.

I’m banking on that paying off this weekend. Elliott had a tremendous amount of speed before he went spinning into the infield last week at Las Vegas, potentially the fastest car on track. I think the No. 9 has hit on something with their intermediate setup and will be quick again this week.

It’s important to remember that Elliott’s lone win this season came at Texas Motor Speedway, a sister track to Homestead. He’s only led one lap in the first seven playoff races but I expect that total to increase substantially this weekend.

3. Kyle Busch ($8,600)

Despite the fact Busch still remains winless this season, most of his close calls have come at intermediate tracks. Remember a few weeks ago at Kansas? He clearly had one of the fastest cars there, leading late, but a dust-up with Chase Briscoe caused him to spin out of contention. Despite the loss of track position, Busch was still able to fight back to a top-10 finish.

I do think 2024 is where Busch’s 19-year streak of winning seasons comes to an end. However, of the three tracks left on the schedule, I think Homestead is his last, best shot to keep it alive.

4. Chris Buescher ($7,700)

The driver of the No. 17 has had a strange year, to be sure. Buescher missed the postseason only to rebound with a win at Watkins Glen, one of only two top-five finishes RFK Racing has during these seven races thus far.

Like the above entry on this list, though, intermediates have been a strength for Buescher. Early in the season, he had that amazingly heartbreaking second place finish at Kansas and ran 11th there in the fall. He was also 10th at LVMS last weekend, gaining 12 positions from his 22nd starting spot.

One caveat is that Buescher has never had a top-10 finish at Homestead in eight career Cup starts. That said, I expect start number nine to be much different.

5. Justin Haley ($6,400)

Haley has quickly become one of my top dark horses to pick each week when the money is there. Last weekend at Las Vegas, he finished a solid 17th, which was a big improvement on his run at Kansas, which saw him a distant 33rd with Spire Motorsports.

Watching Haley take care of his equipment and get the most out of it has made him a great fantasy play for me all year, and I think this week is no exception.

Bet on lucky No. 7 one more time with me this week.

6. Zane Smith ($6,100)

Speaking of dark horses, Smith is another one of my favorites, coincidentally also out of the Spire camp.

The rookie has been improving dramatically on intermediate tracks as the year has progressed. Excluding Atlanta Motor Speedway’s pack racing format, he has finished no worse than 16th in his last three starts on 1.5-mile ovals. That came at LVMS this past weekend while his other two finishes produced top 10s at both Kansas and Michigan International Speedway.

Don’t count out the No. 71, a cheap pick that could fill out your roster nicely.

Prop Bets and Locks

1. Denny Hamlin (+900) to win: Hamlin has 100% not had very much speed as of late. That is part of the reason he finds himself in a Round of 8 hole, down 27 points to the cutline. I think +900 is generous considering, but you can’t count him out on any track. Anything is possible with this future Hall of Famer behind the wheel.
2. Tyler Reddick (+130) over Kyle Larson (-175): Larson is certainly at the top of the list when it comes to favorites this week, but I think people are sleeping on Reddick. Like Hamlin and Elliott, his back is against the wall and we all saw what happened last time he was in a situation like this one at the Charlotte ROVAL. This one’s a gamble considering Larson’s strong track record here, but it’s a fun head-to-head to keep your eye on this week.
3. Ross Chastain (+850) to be top-finishing Chevrolet: Chastain has been absolute money for me on intermediates this season. He won at Kansas and has appeared to find some speed during these playoffs. The non-title contender will have some stiff competition in guys like William Byron and Larson, but I like these odds. I made some money last week that leaves me swinging for the fences… and that signature watermelon toss.