There wasn’t a man at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday (Oct. 27) who needed a win as badly as Denny Hamlin.
Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott may have been in worse points situations, but Hamlin’s situation runs much deeper than the 2024 playoff standings.
This is a story that’s been under construction since Hamlin’s NASCAR Cup Series debut at Kansas Speedway in 2005. It’s a story that’s been highlighted since Hamlin spun at Homestead-Miami while racing for the championship in 2010.
It’s a story that’s only become more relevant with every passing season, especially 2014, 2019, 2020 and 2021.
It’s a story that only grew sadder in both 2022 and 2023 when Hamlin was knocked out of the Round of 8 by a series of bizarre circumstances.
It’s a story that has led us to Martinsville, Va. — situated just three hours southwest of Hamlin’s hometown of Chesterfield, Va. — for the penultimate race of the 2024 Cup playoffs, where Hamlin must either make up 18 points on William Byron or find a way to score his first win at Martinsville since 2015 to make the Championship 4.
There’s no point in delving deeper into each one of Hamlin’s championship heartbreaks as they’ve been documented to death, but needless to say, 2024 has the potential to join the list of Hamlin’s most heartbreaking losses.
Hamlin ran one of his best races of the season at Homestead on Sunday, leading 21 laps and earning his first stage win since the Brickyard 400 on July 21.
Hamlin ran third when the time came for the race’s final restart with seven laps to go, and thanks to an incredible restart, claimed the race lead as the field roared off turn 2.
But just as his championship dreams ended at Homestead three times before, Hamlin saw his hopes of winning the Straight Talk Wireless 400 evaporate, as a strong set of corners from defending champion Blaney set Hamlin back to the runner-up spot, drastically changing the points outlook.
Hamlin saw Reddick, who passed Hamlin for second earlier on the final lap, fly around Blaney for the race win in turns 3 and 4, but it didn’t make a difference to the 43-year-old veteran.
If Hamlin can’t muster up a legendary drive at his home track — a feat that seems difficult at a track where passing is now scarce and his main competitors will likely be fast — we could be seeing Hamlin’s championship window come to a close.
There’s no doubt that Hamlin is still at or near the top of his game. There’s no doubt that Chris Gabehart is one of the best crew chiefs in NASCAR. There’s no doubt that Joe Gibbs Racing is still one of NASCAR’s best teams.
The doubt begins to settle in when you look at the castles of Father Time and Fate, neither of whom are smiling down on the future Hall of Famer.
Hamlin will be 44 on Nov. 18. If he’s unable to claw his way above the cut line at Martinsville, it will mark the third consecutive season that he will not make the Championship 4 — a streak that would follow a string of three consecutive Championship 4 appearances from 2019 to 2021.
Hamlin and the No. 11 team were fast at Phoenix Raceway in March, and they’re certainly capable of putting together a good enough race to win the championship.
If Hamlin can somehow find a way to make the Championship 4, he has to take advantage of it. The major difference between Hamlin and the aforementioned drivers who also needed to win at Homestead? None of them are over the age of 30, and hence don’t have a clock constantly counting down the days until their inevitable retirement.
If 2024 is his final chance to win the championship, a strong day at Martinsville is a must. If said performance doesn’t happen, Hamlin will end the 2024 season the same way he’s ended the last two: standing beside his car in shock after another excellent season has gone to waste.
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We can only hope he chokes again.
I’ll be there… hope to witness this year’s choke in person.
Not to fear. His ego will always be championship-caliber.
I would love to see him choke and spin himself out and go 5 laps down, yet have to drive the rest of the race in self pity. But I’ve been saying for months, if Denny is in the final 4 at phoenix he will win it. He can’t be allowed to get in Nascar.
Denny Hamlin has better stats than Mark Martin, but his attitude and ego will never let him be considered as great as Mark.
Yeah he is not a Hendricks driver so at least he doesn’t cheat to get we’re he’s at,Hendricks are the biggest cheaters out there that’s why they win championships