HOMESTEAD, Fla. — Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney reside in very different playoff neighborhoods these days.
Bell enters Sunday’s (Oct. 27) NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway second on the playoff grid, 42 points above the cut line to advance to the Championship.
Blaney — on the other hand — lives on the other side of the tracks, a fair distance down the road at -47 points.
Their approaches to the next two races reflect that.
Bell said his No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota team is planning on there being three different winners other than them in the third round.
That would leave him, William Byron (+27) and Kyle Larson (+35) to race for the last points spot.
“You’re never really safe,” said Bell, who observed that because “of the way that the cards fell,” he, Larson and Byron are “kind of essentially point racing each other, and the guys below that are far enough below, they’re basically out of the points and essentially racing for wins.”
Of course, “there’s a good chance William, Kyle or myself could win this weekend and it could change,” Bell said. “But plus 42 (points) sounds great until you realize every time someone wins, that cut line shrinks more, more and more, or that gap to the cut line. You’re never safe and it’s going to be a battle. It’s going to be a battle all the way until the checkered flag at Martinsville.”
Blaney had a blunt assessment of his own situation after teammate Joey Logano locked himself into the Championship 4 with his Las Vegas Motor Speedway win and he placed 32nd, his third finish of 32nd or worse of the playoffs.
“It’s a scenario where I’m pretty out of it on points,” Blaney acknowledged. “I’m not gonna make up 40 something points. You’re not gonna get that lucky to where guys are gonna have that big of blowups here the next two weeks, right?”
So that’s left the No. 12 team to go for broke at Homestead and Martinsville Speedway the next two weeks.
“We’ve kind of approached this round that way anyway, of like, a must win,” said Blaney, who will start 20th Sunday. “I agree with what they say. Of, there’s going to be three guys who win that are in the round, that are still in the playoffs and then you’re going to have one guy (who) pointed to a way in.
“I feel like that’s how it’s been the last handful of years, really. So, the mindset doesn’t change. We don’t really have to worry about points anymore.”
Denny Hamlin, who is the first driver below the cutline at -27, “surely” believes his No. 11 team could advance to the championship race on points.
“You just have to have one or two of the guys up front stub their toe and you be elite,” Hamlin said. “That’d be the only way.”
But Hamlin, who starts fourth Sunday, has been anything but elite lately.
In the last 10 races, he’s only led laps in three and the most was 21 in the Southern 500. He also hasn’t finished in the top five since the Bristol Motor Speedway playoff race.
“I certainly think we’re not leading laps,” Hamlin said. “That’s definitely an indicator of speed. We haven’t done that over the last several weeks. … I think some of it is schedule. We’ve had three of these typical ovals we’ve had in the series – Bristol is one of them we’ve ran top three all day. Kansas, every time we got right at the lead, we had a bad pit stop.
“And then, (Las) Vegas, obviously, was just the wheels came off on that one. And that’s been seven weeks’ worth. … So, it just feels like forever. It’s certainly not the best time to not be on our A-game, all around, myself included. The good news is, we still have a chance, even this late in the game.”
Hamlin was asked if he believed he could come out on top of a must-win situation next weekend at Martinsville Speedway.
He’s won five times in his Cup career at the half-mile track.
“If I knew how the race would play out, I’d do a better job driving,” Hamlin said. “It’s just, there are variables, and you have 35 other guys that have different plans (other) than letting you win. It’s very difficult to win these races. We’ve seen that. Certainly, feel like it’s a racetrack if I had to (win to advance), I’m certainly capable. The ‘will,’ I don’t know.”
When it comes to the near future, it’s Bell who has recent history on his side.
He’s won the most recent races at two of the last three tracks on the schedule: winning at Phoenix Raceway in the spring and entering this weekend the defending Homestead winner.
Not that history means anything for what his result will be come race day.
“I think that the advantage that I have, and a lot of us have, is that we know we’re going to be competitive,” said Bell, who starts third. “Because the track hasn’t changed, the cars haven’t changed, the rules package hasn’t changed. So, ‘you’ll be in the hunt’ is a good way to look at it.”
However, “to say you’re going to win the race because you won the race last year is just false and inaccurate.”
Follow Daniel McFadin on X at @danielmcfadin
Daniel McFadin is a 10-year veteran of the NASCAR media corp. He wrote for NBC Sports from 2015 to October 2020. He currently works full time for the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette and is lead reporter and an editor for Frontstretch. He is also host of the NASCAR podcast "Dropping the Hammer with Daniel McFadin" presented by Democrat-Gazette.
You can email him at danielmcfadin@gmail.com.
Denny’s nervous already lol he knows he always chokes . It’s eating at him and not sleeping well. He’s already hoping a couple ahead of him have problems.sure sign.
Chances are pretty good he will help them have problems!