4 Burning Questions: Do 2 Extra Weeks of Phoenix Prep Provide an Advantage?

1. Does Joey Logano have an advantage by clinching a Championship 4 spot this early?

Joey Logano winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last weekend was the most chaotic outcome that could’ve happened, as the driver that was initially eliminated from the Round of 8 instead became the first driver to lock in a spot for the Championship 4.

Unlike the rest of his Round of 8 peers, Logano and the No. 22 team now have three full weeks to focus on preparing their car for the finale at Phoenix Raceway. It’s a luxury only available to them, as the remaining three drivers will find out either this week or next if they have advanced. Less time to prepare, coupled with more stress and sleepless nights to conquer the same hurdle.

It shows in the list of champions. Of the 10 NASCAR Cup Series champions crowned in this format since 2014, four of them punched their ticket into the Championship 4 by winning the Round of 8 opener: Jimmie Johnson in 2016, Logano in 2018, Kyle Larson in 2021 and Logano again in 2022.

Of the remaining six champions in this format, three went on to win the title after winning the Round of 8 finale: Kevin Harvick in 2014, Chase Elliott in 2020 and Ryan Blaney 2023. The remaining three (Kyle Busch in 2015, Martin Truex Jr. in 2017 and Busch in 2019) won the title after clinching a spot in the Championship 4 on points.

The breakdown makes sense. The champions either had the most time to prepare for the finale, had the hot hand by winning the week before the finale or showed consistent excellence in the weeks leading up to the finale by clinching a spot on points.

The odds say that Logano has a slight advantage over the rest of his competition, and winning the Round of 8 opener is exactly how he went on the win both of his titles. But 2024 is the weakest the No. 22 team has looked in quite time, so it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll find that extra gear in the finale as he has in years past.

2. Ryan Blaney, the perfect teammate?

Speaking of Logano, he owes both his teammates extravagant Christmas gifts this offseason. Austin Cindric’s spin with two to go at Nashville Superspeedway in June was the catalyst for a five-overtime finish that saw Logano punch his playoff ticket after pulling off an immaculate fuel save, and it’s a playoff spot he wouldn’t have earned without the win.

But he owes a bigger gift to Blaney, who pushed him to victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway in September to clinch a spot in the Round of 12. Blaney came in clutch for Logano yet again at Las Vegas, as Blaney — eight laps down after damage from an early crash — drafted with the No. 22 in the closing laps of a fuel mileage finish, and Logano had just enough steam to pass Daniel Suarez for the win and hold off a hard-charging Christopher Bell to take the checkered flag.

This isn’t the first year that Blaney has served as a team player. In the 2022 championship finale at Phoenix, Logano was in the lead and had dominated the race, but Blaney, who was in danger of posting a winless season, had a fast enough car to race Logano for the win in the closing laps. But instead of putting up a significant fight, Blaney stayed behind the No. 22, either by choice or by encountering dirty air, serving as a buffer between Logano and championship runner-up Ross Chastain. That’s how the race ended, and Blaney had to wait until 2023 to end his winless streak and score a championship of his own.

It’s also important to remember that Blaney’s teamwork with Logano at Las Vegas served as a detriment to his own championship hopes. If Bell had enough time to pass Logano for the win, Blaney would’ve left the race 32 points below the cut. But with Logano scoring a spot, Blaney is now 47 points below the cut.

It’s a huge deficit either way, but 32 is at least a better number to work with, especially if the drivers above the cut run into trouble. Forty-seven? That’s solidly in must-win territory. But Blaney finished second at Homestead-Miami Speedway and rose to the challenge with a win at Martinsville Speedway to clinch a spot last year, so the ball is in his court the next two weekends.

3. Can Christopher Bell and the No. 20 team put all the pieces together?

Best driver of the season? Larson, without a doubt. Six wins, including dominant ones at Bristol Motor Speedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, and a new record for most laps led in a season of the Next Gen car: 1,614 and counting.

Second best, arguably, is Bell. Since the first race at Kansas Speedway in May, Bell has recorded two wins, 879 laps led, an average finish of 9.9, 16 top 10s and only three finishes worse than 15th in the last 22 races.

That said, the kicker is that Bell hasn’t won since New Hampshire Motor Speedway in June despite plenty of dominant cars and chances to do so.

The same goes for the entirety of Joe Gibbs Racing.

Nashville? Bell led a race-high 131 laps, only to make a mistake and crash out in the final stage. For the next weekend in Chicago, Bell was poised to win, only to get swept up in a multi-car crash while running fifth and marching through the field with dry tires.

Richmond Raceway in August? Speeding penalty and a sixth-place finish after leading 122 laps. Kansas in September? Won the pole and led 121 of the first 161 laps, only to finish seventh after hitting the wall a second time while racing for the lead in stage two. He then scored a runner-up finish to a dominant Larson at the ROVAL, only to set the stage for Las Vegas — perhaps the most agonizing defeat of them all. Bell and the No. 20 team won the pole, led 155 laps and had the field completely covered, only to get outfoxed by clever pit strategy from Logano and Paul Wolfe.

Bell would’ve made the pass for the win with one or two laps, and he was furious upon taking the checkered flag in the No. 22 car’s tire tracks.

The No. 20 team has put up absurdly consistent results since May and has had dominant speed to go along with it, and Bell left the field in the dust in the pivotal Phoenix race in March. But for whatever reason, they haven’t been able to capitalize on winning races with dominant cars in the last four months.

All the puzzle pieces are there, it’s just a matter of team putting them all together. And if Bell can make it to the Championship 4 for the third straight year, he will enter as one of the heavy favorites.

4. Will Ryan Sieg have his winning moment?

Ryan Sieg’s runner-up finish to AJ Allmendinger in the NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Las Vegas wasn’t as close as his photo finish defeat to Sam Mayer at Texas Motor Speedway in April, but it hurt all the same. And with Las Vegas just one week removed from Parker Kligerman’s heartbreaking near miss at the ROVAL, it has been a rough, rough two weeks for longtime drivers hoping the reach the summit for the first time.

Statistically, one could argue that Sieg’s performance at Las Vegas was the best of his career. He had an average running position of fifth, and he was a solid fixture in the top five for the second half of the race. He finished third in stage two, and he overcame less-than-ideal pit stops to claw his way to second place with just over 30 to go.

A caution brought out by his brother Kyle with 29 to go sent everyone down pit road, and the No. 28 pulled off a clutch stop that allowed Ryan to retain second. He was all over Allmendinger’s bumper with 15 to go, and he even led lap 192 until he lost the handle of the car in turn 1 and had to regroup. He was catching Allmendinger again until another caution came out for Sammy Smith’s stalled car. Sieg then did everything he could the final two laps, but he didn’t have enough of a run to get Allmendinger aero loose out of turn 4 the final time.

So many what-ifs can be asked from that night. What if Sieg didn’t lose the handle on his car with nine to go and successfully completed the pass for the lead? What if that late caution for Smith never came to fruition, a caution that Sieg himself didn’t want to see? What if he had a better final restart and kept even with Allmendinger through the first two turns?

It’s a tough pill to swallow, but last weekend showed that the first win is on the horizon. Sieg’s car at Las Vegas was the same one he almost won with at Texas, and he showed that that photo finish wasn’t a fluke, but rather a sign of things to come. If Sieg and RSS Racing can keep putting themselves in position like they have this year, one of those close calls will eventually result in a win.

Stephen Stumpf

Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.

Can find on Twitter @stephen_stumpf.